MOSCOW, Feb 12 (Reuters) – Russia’s economic system will proceed to gradual within the first half of the yr, with a restoration attainable solely by late 2026 and extra seemingly in 2027, Economic system Minister Maxim Reshetnikov was quoted as saying on Thursday.
His ministry had beforehand projected that progress would start to recuperate within the second half of 2026.
After fast growth of 4.1% and 4.9% in 2023–2024, pushed by heavy state spending on the conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s economic system has slowed sharply. GDP grew simply 1% in 2025.
Officers have described the slowdown as a “managed cooling” or “smooth touchdown” geared toward curbing inflation via tight financial coverage. President Vladimir Putin has instructed the federal government and the central financial institution to revive greater financial progress and enhance funding exercise as early as 2026.
The easing in GDP progress and the anticipated decline in funding in 2025 are the “pure value” of lowering inflation, Interfax cited Reshetnikov as saying. Full-year funding figures for final yr have not but been revealed.
“Total, we now see some scope for additional financial easing. However we should perceive that no matter choices are made now, their influence on the economic system will likely be delayed. The estimated lag is 6–9 months, generally longer,” he stated.
“Due to this fact, we count on an extra financial slowdown within the first half of the yr. Development will resume at finest by the top of 2026, however more than likely in 2027.”
A Reuters ballot of 24 analysts confirmed that 16 count on the central financial institution to maintain its key fee at 16% at its assembly on Friday, whereas eight forecast a 50-basis-point minimize to fifteen.5%.
The federal government’s present forecast for 2026 is for GDP progress of 1.3%. The economic system ministry will replace its outlook in March, Reshetnikov stated.
The Worldwide Financial Fund has minimize its projection for Russia’s GDP progress this yr to 0.8%, implying the economic system will develop at round 1 / 4 of the anticipated world common of three.3%.
Some officers and analysts say Russia is now in a borderline state between stagnation and recession.
(Writing by Darya Korsunskaya; enhancing by Mark Trevelyan)
