Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, and George Barros
April 1, 2024, 6:50pm ET
Click on here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day alongside the static maps current on this report.
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Click on here to entry ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day by day by displaying a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive month-to-month.
Word: The info cut-off for this product was 1:15pm ET on April 1. ISW will cowl subsequent studies within the April 2 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation.
A joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel strongly means that the Kremlin has waged a sustained kinetic marketing campaign straight focusing on US authorities personnel each in the US and internationally for a decade, with the possible goal of bodily incapacitating US authorities personnel. The investigation, which the shops revealed on March 31, signifies that the notorious Principal Directorate of the Normal Workers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) Unit 29155 (the identical unit whose operatives tried to assassinate Sergei Skripal with the Novichok nerve agent in the UK in 2018) could also be utilizing nonlethal directed vitality or acoustic weapons to focus on numerous US authorities personnel, every of whom has reported experiencing an “anomalous well being incident” (additionally referred to as “Havana Syndrome”) of various severity between 2014 and as just lately as 2023.[1] The investigation cites intercepted Russian intelligence paperwork, journey logs, name metadata, and eyewitness testimony that locations GRU Unit 29155 operatives at lots of the areas the place US officers skilled Havana Syndrome, both shortly earlier than or throughout every assault. The investigation instructed that GRU operatives carried out a directed vitality assault towards an FBI agent in Florida just a few months after the agent interviewed detained undercover GRU officer Vitaliy Kovalev sooner or later between June and December 2020.[2] Different US authorities officers claimed they had been attacked by the directed vitality weapons whereas they had been in the US, together with in Washington, DC. The joint investigation interviewed US Military Colonel Greg Edgreen, former head of the Protection Intelligence Company (DIA)’s working group investigating Havana Syndrome, who believes that Russia is behind the Havana Syndrome incidents and that the incidents constantly have a “Russia nexus.”[3] Edgreen acknowledged that the incidents all focused the highest 5 to 10 % “performing DIA officers” and that the victims had been both specialists on Russia or had in any other case labored to defend US nationwide safety pursuits towards Russia. The investigation famous that many affected personnel had been assigned to roles aimed toward countering Russia following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine after these personnel had beforehand labored on different portfolios. The investigation reported that these incidents have affected senior US personnel, together with a senior official within the Nationwide Safety Council who served sooner or later in 2020-2024 and CIA Director Invoice Burns’ then-deputy chief of workers who skilled an anomalous well being incident in September 2021 in Delhi. A number of of the US officers who skilled Havana Syndrome have extreme life-altering and career-ending accidents. Many US officers’ spouses and youngsters additionally skilled Havana Syndrome whereas deployed abroad.
Retired CIA officer Marc Polymeropolous, who skilled Havana Syndrome whereas in Moscow in December 2017 and ended his profession as Chief of Operation for the CIA’s Europe and Eurasia Mission Heart, acknowledged that if the investigation’s attribution of the assaults to Russia’s GRU is true, then the assaults match a sample of the Kremlin “searching for retribution for occasions” for which it believes the US is accountable.[4] Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed {that a} senior unnamed Division of Protection official on the NATO Vilnius summit in July 2023 skilled related signs to different anomalous well being incidents.[5] Senior US intelligence officers have beforehand publicly acknowledged that the intelligence group can not attribute a overseas adversary to any of the anomalous well being incidents, and White Home Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated in response to the joint investigation on April 1 that the intelligence group “has not concluded” that Russian army intelligence was concerned within the incidents.[6] If the Russian GRU is confirmed to be liable for quite a few assaults towards US army, diplomatic, and intelligence personnel and their households, nevertheless, then this is able to quantity to a big sustained Russian marketing campaign of kinetic assaults towards the US designed to degrade US intelligence capabilities towards Russia to which the US has not publicly responded.
The Russian International Intelligence Service (SVR) is intensifying efforts to falsely implicate Ukraine within the March 22 Crocus Metropolis Corridor terrorist assault whereas denying any Islamic State (IS) duty or involvement within the assault. The SVR baselessly claimed on April 1 that the US is making an attempt to cowl up Ukraine’s alleged duty for the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault, together with by blaming the assault on the Islamic State’s Afghan department IS-Khorasan (IS-Ok).[7] The Russian Ministry of International Affairs (MFA) just lately demanded that Ukrainian authorities arrest and extradite folks allegedly concerned within the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault and a wider set of alleged “terrorist” assaults in Russia.[8] ISW continues to evaluate with excessive confidence that IS carried out the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault and has but to watch impartial reporting or proof to recommend that an actor apart from IS was liable for or aided the assault.[9] The Kremlin possible intends to capitalize on home worry and anger concerning the assault and hopes that perceptions of Ukrainian and Western involvement within the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault and wider alleged “terrorist” assaults in Russia will enhance Russian home help for the battle in Ukraine.[10]
Reuters reported on April 1 that Iran warned Russia a couple of potential “main terrorist operation” at an unspecified date previous to the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault, in accordance with “three sources accustomed to the matter.”[11] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Presidential Consultant for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov denied the report that Iran warned Russia of a terrorist assault.[12] The Russian authorities will possible proceed to disclaim any studies that the Kremlin acquired a warning of a possible terrorist assault earlier than the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault to deflect blame from Russia’s regulation enforcement and intelligence failure and divert accusations in the direction of Ukraine.
The Russian MFA introduced on April 1 that it’s working to take away the Taliban’s standing as a chosen terrorist group in Russia and introduced that Russia invited the Taliban to take part within the Could 14-19 Russia-Islamic World Discussion board in Kazan, Tatarstan Republic.[13] The Kremlin’s hyper fixation on pinning the blame for the assault on Ukraine, versus addressing very actual and mandatory terrorist threats, will possible proceed to pose a safety menace to Russia in the long run.
Russian authorities are taking measures to additional crackdown towards migrant communities in Russia following the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault. The Russian Ministry of Inside Affairs (MVD) acknowledged on April 1 that it’s getting ready a invoice that introduces numerous measures tightening Russia’s migration coverage.[14] The proposed invoice contains necessities that each one foreigners bear obligatory fingerprinting and photographing upon coming into Russia; the creation of a authorities system containing the digital profiles of foreigners; necessities that each one foreigners obtain a brand new identification doc confirming their proper to dwell and work in Russia; reductions on the bounds on how lengthy foreigners can quickly keep in Russia from 90 days per each six months to 90 days per yr; and authorizations for courts and sure federal govt our bodies exterior of courts to deport foreigners who “pose a safety menace.” The MVD’s proposals to tighten the federal government’s monitoring of and management over migrants in Russia may also possible make it simpler for authorities to focus on and coerce migrants into the Russian army as a part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts, as such efforts will construct out a database of private data that makes migrant communities extra instantly identifiable.[15] Kremlin newswire TASS additionally reported on April 1 that Russian authorities detained the tenth individual allegedly complicit within the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault and that Russian authorities detained him as a part of an ongoing Russian operation, referred to as Operation “Unlawful,” which Russian authorities have reportedly often carried out in earlier years.[16] Russian human rights undertaking First Division reported on March 29 that Russian authorities launched “Operation Anti-Migrant,” a large-scale operation to establish and deport migrants, in St. Petersburg, and Russian authorities are possible rising their searches on migrants within the wake of the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault.[17] It’s unclear if Operation “Unlawful” and “Operation Anti-Migrant” are associated packages.
The Kremlin is reportedly taking steps to straight strengthen its management over authorities our bodies that oversee migration coverage. Russian outlet Vedomosti reported on April 1 that sources near the Russian presidential administration and authorities acknowledged that Russian authorities are contemplating creating a brand new division to supervise interethnic and migration coverage and that the division might be straight subordinated to the Russian president.[18] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged in response that there aren’t any official choices about making a division for interethnic and migration coverage but.[19] Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasised throughout his annual “Direct Line” speech in December 2023 that Russia wants a “particular organ, not simply the Ministry of Inside Affairs” to deal with Russia’s migration points.[20] Putin might scapegoat sure MVD personnel for Russia’s latest migration points. A Russian insider supply claimed on April 1 that Putin is anticipated to attend the MVD’s prolonged board assembly on April 2 which is able to summarize the MVD’s 2023 actions.[21] The insider supply claimed that the assembly will embody discussions of migration points and that unspecified actors will “assault” the top of the MVD‘s Principal Directorate for Migration Affairs, Valentina Kazakova, and her “curator” MVD Deputy Minister Alexander Gorovoy, possible on account of their perceived inaction and inefficacy. The insider supply claimed that the Kremlin will possible dismiss MVD leaders, together with Inside Affairs Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, after Putin’s inauguration on Could 7 and that the Kremlin provided the minister place to the top of the Financial Safety Service of the Federal Safety Service (FSB), Sergei Alpatov.
Key Takeaways:
- A joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel strongly means that the Kremlin has waged a sustained kinetic marketing campaign straight focusing on US authorities personnel each in the US and internationally for a decade, with the possible goal of bodily incapacitating US authorities personnel.
- The Russian International Intelligence Service (SVR) is intensifying efforts to falsely implicate Ukraine within the March 22 Crocus Metropolis Corridor terrorist assault whereas denying any Islamic State (IS) duty or involvement within the assault.
- Russian authorities are taking measures to additional crack down towards migrant communities in Russia following the Crocus Metropolis Corridor assault.
- Russian forces just lately made confirmed advances close to Avdiivka and within the east (left) financial institution of Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements alongside your complete line of contact on April 1.
- The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) continues to reassure the Russian public that Russian army conscripts won’t deploy to most of occupied Ukraine nor take part in fight operations in Ukraine amid the beginning of the spring semi-annual army conscription call-up that began on April 1.
We don’t report intimately on Russian battle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to judge and report on the results of those legal actions on the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity regardless that we don’t describe them in these studies.
- Russian Principal Effort – Japanese Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate foremost efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Principal Effort #1 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Principal Effort #2 – Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
- Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
- Russian Mobilization and Power Era Efforts
- Russian Technological Diversifications
- Actions in Russian-occupied areas
- Ukrainian Protection Industrial Base Efforts
- Russian Data Operations and Narratives
- Important Exercise in Belarus
Russian Principal Effort – Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Principal Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Positional combating continued close to Kreminna on April 1, however there have been no confirmed adjustments on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Positional combating continued west of Kreminna close to Terny and south of Kreminna close to Bilohorivka.[22] Ukrainian “Metal Border” border detachment Spokesperson Ivan Shevtsov acknowledged that Russian forces haven’t carried out an assault within the Kupyansk path since March 29 and are usually conducting fewer assaults on this path whereas they relaxation and reconstitute, whereas Russian forces have carried out as much as 16 assaults per day within the Lyman path prior to now week.[23] ISW has beforehand noticed that Russian forces undulate between attacking within the Kupyansk and Kreminna instructions with a view to preserve fixed offensive stress towards defending Ukrainian models alongside this line.[24] Components of the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz “Aida” detachment proceed to function close to Bilohorivka.[25]
Russian Subordinate Principal Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces superior west of Bakhmut, however ISW has not noticed visible affirmation of those claims. A number of Russian sources claimed on April 1 that parts of the 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division have superior in the direction of Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) via forested areas within the Stupky-Holobovskiy-2 nature reserve and at the moment are between 650 meters and one kilometer from the japanese outskirts of Chasiv Yar.[26] ISW has solely collected information to substantiate that Russian forces are about 1.5 kilometers from the japanese outskirt of Chasiv Yar on the furthest level of their confirmed advance. Geolocated footage posted on April 1 reveals the aftermath of an unsuccessful Russian armored car assault on Ivanivske (between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have misplaced 5 – 6 armored autos in assaults close to Ivanivske in latest days.[27] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that positional combating continued west of Bakhmut close to Ivanivske; northwest of Bakhmut close to Bohdanivka; and southwest of Bakhmut close to Andriivka and Klishchiivka.[28]
Russian forces just lately made confirmed advances southwest and west of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage revealed on March 31 reveals that parts of the ninth Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk Folks’s Republic Military Corps [DNR AC]) have superior alongside Haharin Avenue in Vodyane (southwest of Avdiivka) and have reached the western outskirts of the settlement.[29] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces fully management Vodyane, which is able to enable them to develop new assaults in the direction of Pervomaiske (straight south of Vodyane).[30] Geolocated footage revealed between March 30 and April 1 confirms that Russian forces tried further marginal advances west of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) throughout the failed Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault close to Tonenke on March 30.[31] Forbes characterised the failed Russian assault as a “tank bloodbath” and reported that Russian forces misplaced a complete of 12 tanks of the 36 deployed throughout the tried assault.[32] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued positional combating northwest of Avdiivka close to Berdychi and Semenivka; west of Avdiivka close to Umanske; and southwest of Avdiivka close to Nevelske and Pervomaiske.[33] A distinguished Russian milblogger complained that Russian advances the Avdiivka space have been hindered by incompetent tactical-level Russian commanders who’re extra fascinated by advancing their careers than defending their males.[34]
Positional engagements continued west and southwest of Donetsk Metropolis on April 1, however there have been no confirmed adjustments to the frontline on this space. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are making tactical advances inside Novomykhailivka and that heavy combating is ongoing in and across the settlement.[35] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued positional engagements west of Donetsk Metropolis close to Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk Metropolis close to Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.[36] Components of the fifth Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC), 68th AC (Japanese Navy District [EMD]), and a hundred and fifty fifth Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, EMD) are reportedly working on this space.[37]
Positional engagements continued within the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border space on April 1, however there have been no confirmed adjustments to the frontline on this space. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported combating east of Vodyane (close to Vuhledar); close to Velyka Novosilka; and close to Urozhaine and Staromayorske (each south of Velyka Novosilka).[38] The Russian eleventh Air Power and Air Protection Military (Russian Aerospace Forces and EMD) reportedly carried out a guided glide bomb strike on a bridge in Hulyaipole (45km southwest of Velyka Novosilka in japanese Zaporizhia Oblast).[39] Components of the fifth Tank Brigade (thirty sixth Mixed Arms Military, EMD) are reportedly working close to Velyka Novosilka.[40]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian goal: Keep frontline positions and safe rear areas towards Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces reportedly superior in western Zaporizhia Oblast on April 1, however there have been no confirmed adjustments to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces superior west of Verbove (east of Robotyne), however ISW has not noticed visible affirmation of this declare.[41] Positional engagements continued close to Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.[42] Components of the Russian “Viking” Spetsnaz Detachment are reportedly working close to Robotyne.[43]
Russian forces just lately superior within the east (left) financial institution of Kherson Oblast, amid continued positional engagements close to Krynky. Geolocated footage revealed on March 31 signifies that Russian forces marginally superior north of Kozachi Laheri (3km from the Dnipro River within the east financial institution of Kherson Oblast), though unlikely throughout the previous day.[44] Russian and Ukrainian forces reported continued combating in Krynky.[45]
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin appointed Vladislav Isaev because the Normal Director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (ZNPP) in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast on April 1.[46] Russian forces have occupied the ZNPP since March 2022, and the Worldwide Atomic Power Company (IAEA) has repeatedly referred to as for withdrawal of all Russian unauthorized army and different personnel from the ZNPP and the return of the ZNPP to full Ukrainian management.[47]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Goal: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and on the frontline)
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched three Shahed 136/131 drones at Ukraine on April 1, two of which Ukrainian forces destroyed.[48] Ukraine’s Japanese Air Command moreover reported that Ukrainian forces shot down a Kh-59 missile over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[49] The Ukrainian Prosecutor Normal’s Workplace acknowledged that Russian forces launched two D-30 common joint glide munition (UMPD) guided glide bombs at Kharkiv Metropolis in a single day from March 31 to April 1.[50] Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast officers famous that latest steady Russian strikes on Kharkiv Metropolis have destroyed all important vitality infrastructure and severely broken residential and personal infrastructure within the metropolis, inflicting an vitality deficit in Kharkiv Oblast.[51]
Russian opposition outlet ASTRA reported on April 1 that Russian planes unintentionally dropped two extra FAB-500 guided glide bombs on Belgorod Oblast on March 31, making this the sixteenth case of such accidents within the final two weeks alone.[52]
Russian Mobilization and Power Era Efforts (Russian goal: Broaden fight energy with out conducting basic mobilization)
The Russian MoD continues to reassure the Russian public that Russian army conscripts won’t deploy to most of occupied Ukraine nor take part in fight operations in Ukraine amid the beginning of the spring semi-annual army conscription call-up that began on April 1. Russian Deputy Chief of the Normal Workers Vice Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky emphasised the upcoming conscription cycle is “by no means related” with the battle in Ukraine and acknowledged that conscripts won’t go to army deployment factors in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts, though notably didn’t exclude occupied Crimea.[53] Tsimlyansky acknowledged that almost all of conscripts will full coaching inside 5 months after which enter army models in accordance with their acquired abilities. ISW continues to evaluate that the Kremlin stays unlikely to deploy conscripts to take part in fight operations in Ukraine on account of issues that conscript causalities might trigger societal discontent inside Russia, though Russia might develop its crypto-mobilization efforts throughout the spring 2024 conscription cycle by making an attempt to recruit conscripts to signal Russian army contracts.[54] The Kremlin will possible proceed utilizing conscripts to cowl the worldwide border between Ukraine and Russia.[55]
Russian Technological Diversifications (Russian goal: Introduce technological improvements to optimize methods to be used in Ukraine)
Russian forces proceed efforts to enhance drone operation and manufacturing capabilities. The Kremlin ordered the Russian Ministry of Business and Commerce to help the Russian Dome JSC in producing methods to detect and suppress drones and emphasised the necessity to enhance the variety of domestically produced digital elements in every system.[56] Russian Heart for Built-in Unmanned Options Normal Director Dmitry Kuzyakin informed Kremlin newswire TASS on April 1 that Russian specialists designed the “Pik” drone tower, a long-range digital communication system, that may enhance the working vary of first-person view (FPV) drones.[57] Kuzyakin acknowledged that Russian forces will set up the Pik drone tower on airfield management towers and on ships’ masts to extend FPV drone operation ranges.
Ukrainian Protection Industrial Efforts (Ukrainian goal: Develop its protection industrial base to grow to be extra self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and worldwide companions)
The US is taking steps to extend its home manufacturing of artillery shells to help Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on March 27 that the US and Turkey are discussing American purchases of Turkish explosives to extend US artillery shell manufacturing.[58] Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon contracted US protection firm Normal Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Techniques to construct three 155mm artillery shell metallic elements manufacturing strains in Texas with Turkish subcontracts and that one Texan plant is scheduled to begin manufacturing in June 2024. US Assistant Secretary of the Military for Acquisition, Logistics, and Expertise Doug Bush acknowledged on February 5 that the US Military goals to double the US month-to-month manufacturing of 155mm shells from 28,000 shells per thirty days in October 2023 to about 60,000 shells per thirty days in October 2024 ought to the proposed Congressional supplemental appropriations invoice move, however famous that US shell manufacturing partly depends upon US home manufacturing of explosive supplies.[59] US imports of Turkish explosives will possible assist increase home US artillery ammunition manufacturing.
Ukraine’s European and Asian companions proceed offering Ukraine with army and monetary help whereas ramping up their very own protection industrial capacities. Germany introduced on March 28 a brand new help bundle for Ukraine, together with ammunition for Leopard tanks, 40mm and 155mm artillery ammunition, and reconnaissance drones.[60] Belgian Protection Minister Ludivine Dedonder introduced on March 29 that Belgium authorized a army help bundle for Ukraine that may allocate 100 million euros (about $107 million) to take care of and help the longer term Ukrainian fleet of F-16 fighter jets.[61] German arms producer Rheinmetall acknowledged on March 25 that the European Union (EU) allotted over 130 million euros (about $139 million) to Rheinmetall to extend its manufacturing of ammunition as a part of the Act of Assist in Ammunition Manufacturing (ASAP).[62] The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance acknowledged on April 1 that Japan allotted $118 million to Ukraine as a part of World Financial institution initiatives aimed toward restoring Ukraine’s healthcare system and residential infrastructure.[63] The Japanese authorities additionally eased its protection gear switch laws on March 26, which is able to enable the export of fighter jets that Japan is ready to collectively develop with the UK and Italy and goals to deploy by 2035.[64] The up to date Japanese laws state that Japan can export the trilaterally developed fighter jets to 3rd nations, however to not nations the place there are ongoing hostilities. Japan beforehand revised its export coverage to backfill US stockpiles of Patriot missiles in December 2023, permitting the US to ship extra Patriot missiles to Ukraine.[65]
European nations proceed efforts to offer Ukraine with important artillery ammunition, together with via the Czech-led initiative to supply artillery ammunition for Ukraine from exterior the EU. Italian outlet Corriere della Sera reported on March 28 that unspecified sources acknowledged that the Czech-led initiative concluded contracts price about 1.8 billion euros (about $1.93 billion) for a million artillery shells for Ukraine and that Ukraine will start receiving the shells in April 2024.[66] Polish International Minister Radoslaw Sikorski acknowledged on March 29 that the Czech-led initiative is already organizing the transportation of artillery ammunition to Ukraine.[67] Sikorski additionally introduced that Poland would “double” its contribution to the initiative however didn’t supply specifics. The top of the German Ministry of Protection’s scenario middle for Ukraine, Main Normal Christian Freuding, acknowledged on March 27 that Germany will switch 10,000 artillery shells from German arsenals to Ukraine within the coming days.[68] Freuding acknowledged that Germany may also help the Czech-led artillery ammunition coalition and buy 180,000 shells, which Ukraine will obtain within the second half of 2024. Freuding acknowledged that Germany agreed to provide Ukraine with one other 100,000 shells on the finish of 2024 as a part of a bilateral settlement with an unspecified third nation. Iceland introduced on March 25 that it’ll be a part of the Czech-led initiative to acquire artillery ammunition.[69]
Actions in Russian-occupied areas (Russian goal: Consolidate administrative management of annexed areas; forcibly combine Ukrainian residents into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance methods)
ISW just isn’t publishing protection of actions in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine right now.
Russian Data Operations and Narratives
Professional-Russia channels are circulating a propaganda video about mobilization in Ukraine designed to undermine Ukrainian belief within the Ukrainian authorities.[70] This propaganda video options excessive manufacturing worth and cinematic sophistication, suggesting it’s a product of a concerted and well-resourced data operation. Russian opposition shops Agenstvo and Mediazona reported that the actors featured within the video are skilled Russian actors who’ve beforehand featured in Russian tv reveals.[71] One actor refused to debate his participation within the video, claiming he solely acts in movies, not commercials.[72] The Kremlin has beforehand used excessive manufacturing worth propaganda movies as a part of centrally directed data operations earlier than, and this latest video’s traits recommend that the video helps a broader Kremlin effort to erode Ukrainian belief in authorities, undermine Ukrainian mobilization efforts, and sow home discontent.[73]
Important exercise in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group exercise in Belarus)
Russia and Belarus are reportedly rising joint manufacturing of important technical gear, possible as a part of Russian sanctions evasion schemes. Russian Deputy Minister of Business and Commerce Viktor Evtukhov acknowledged on March 31 that Belarus and Russia are growing joint initiatives to fabricate microelectronics, radio electronics, and machine instruments.[74] Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Russian Governor of Oryol Oblast Andrei Klychkov on April 1 and mentioned cooperation in microelectronics manufacturing.[75]
Word: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorised materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly out there data, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially out there satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the premise for these studies. References to all sources used are offered within the endnotes of every replace.
[1] https://theins dot press/en/politics/270425
[2] https://theins dot press/en/politics/270450
[3] https://theins dot press/en/politics/270425
[4] https://theins dot press/en/politics/270425
[5] https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2024/04/01/… https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3726753/depu…
[6] https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/01/havana-syndrome-cia-intelligenc… https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2024/04/01/pres…
[7] https://tass dot ru/politika/20409541
[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign…
[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign…
[10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar032824
[11] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-alerted-russia-security-threat-before…
[12] https://t.me/tass_agency/241070 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/241027
[13] https://tass dot ru/politika/20412217 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/241035 ; https://t.me/idelrealii/34697
[14] https://t.me/IrinaVolk_MVD/882
[15] https://isw.pub/UkrWar032824 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar011124 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign… https://isw.pub/UkrWar011824
[16] https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/20411989 ; https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/18242995 ; https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/16191367 ; https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/13284183 ; https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/6716427 ; https://tass dot ru/moskovskaya-oblast/5640694
[17] https://isw.pub/UkrWar033024
[18] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/society/articles/2024/04/01/1029046-v-rf-sozdadut-otvechayuschee-za-mezhnatsionalnuyu-i-migratsionnuyu-politiku-vedomstvo ; https://meduza dot io/information/2024/04/01/vedomosti-v-rossii-planiruyut-sozdat-otvetstvennoe-za-mezhnatsionalnuyu-i-migratsionnuyu-politiku-vedomstvo-ono-budet-podchinyatsya-prezidentu
[19] https://t.me/tass_agency/241027
[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign…
[21] https://t.me/vchkogpu/47156
[22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eTCCUM2GScV7KhhzPGM… https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0n3RKzXztYQoghWbXUkP… https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17938 ; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/17935
[23] https://suspilne dot media/717954-na-limanskomu-napramku-rosijski-vijskovi-bils-aktivni-aniz-na-kupanskomu-ivan-sevcov/
[24] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024….
[25] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/118622 (Bilohorivka)
[26] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/65127; https://t.me/vrogov/15098; https://t.me/…
[27] https://t.me/gostrikartuzy/213; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1… https://mil.in dot ua/uk/information/u-seli-ivanivske-zsu-znyshhyly-bronegrupu-rosiyan/; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1774789020339273891
[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0n3RKzXztYQoghWbXUkP…
[29] https://t.me/Sever_Z/3869; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4937; https://t…
[30] https://t.me/dva_majors/38765; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/118703; https…
[31] https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1774743543233339486; https://t.me/K… https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/10; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1774731510752423977; https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1774754786358767860
[32] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/31/the-russian-army-just-l…
[33] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eTCCUM2GScV7KhhzPGM…
[34] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/55316
[35] https://t.me/wargonzo/19117; https://t.me/dva_majors/38765; https://t….
[36] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/55316; https://t.me/wargonzo/19117; https:…
[37] https://t.me/voin_dv/7750; https://t.me/prigozhin_2023_tg/9603 (Novomykhailivka); https://t.me/milinfolive/119565; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/65131 ; https…(Krasnohorivka)
[38] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0n3RKzXztYQoghWbXUkP…
[39] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8925; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8923; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8906 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/15223… media/718210-kerovanou-aviabombou-rosiani-zrujnuvali-mist-v-gulajpoli-armak/
[40] https://t.me/voin_dv/7744
[41] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/118713
[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eTCCUM2GScV7KhhzPGM… https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0n3RKzXztYQoghWbXUkP… https://t.me/wargonzo/19117; https://t.me/basurin_e/10153 ; https://t…
[43] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/65115
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[45] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eTCCUM2GScV7KhhzPGM… ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0n3RKzXztYQoghWbXUkP… https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02dWojoRuSXNzGok3x7b… ; https://t.me/rybar/58737 ; https://t.me/osetin20/8247 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/38819 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8953 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/38765 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/8953
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[47] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030824
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[49] https://www.facebook.com/pvkshid/posts/pfbid02apdrPcdixDTTWsNeYkq2y1kRMT…
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[53] https://t.me/mod_russia/37225
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