Russia is manipulating financial statistics to persuade Ukraine’s allies that its financial system has withstood sanctions and heavy navy spending, Sweden’s navy intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson informed the Monetary Instances in an interview printed on April 20.
The evaluation comes as Moscow advantages from greater oil revenues linked to the U.S.-Israeli struggle towards Iran. Nilsson stated the Russian economy stays fragile regardless of rising costs.
In line with Nilsson, Russia is understating its funds deficit by about $30 billion, whereas the Central Financial institution is underestimating inflation. Swedish intelligence believes inflation is nearer to ranges implied by a 15% key rate of interest fairly than the formally reported 5.86%.
Sweden estimates that Russia would wish Urals crude costs to stay above $100 per barrel all year long to cowl its funds deficit. Costs would wish to remain at that degree even longer to offset broader financial issues.
Stockholm believes that Moscow is “dwelling on borrowed time,” Nilsson stated.
“The Russian financial system can solely enter one in all two situations: long-term decline or shock. Both means, they’ll proceed on a downslope to a monetary catastrophe,” he added.
Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier instructed the federal government to take measures to revive the financial system, warning of contraction after two consecutive months of decline.
“When you have created a system like Putin has, he won’t understand how dangerous the financial scenario actually is. However even with the false data he will get, you in the end cannot run from all of this,” Nilsson stated.
After GDP development slowed to 1% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, Russia’s financial system has weakened additional this yr. The Financial Ministry reported GDP contracted by 1.8% over the previous two months.
The Russian president highlighted sluggish financial efficiency twice in April. In late March, he additionally known as for what he described as a “return to a path of sustainable financial development.”
