One of many basic blunders of punditry is to jot down about politics proper earlier than the election. So, let’s take a look at what politics is likely to be like after the election. One prediction is simple: Count on much more political inconsistency and hypocrisy.
The time period “realignment” will get used and abused quite a bit, as a result of individuals have agreed to make use of it with out agreeing on a definition. Historically, realignments are stated to have occurred when majority and minority events change locations. Beginning in 1932, FDR pulled black, working-class and immigrant white voters into the Democratic Occasion, making it the bulk celebration for generations. It’s an indication of how large that coalition was that it’s been shrinking because the 1960s with out Republicans ever changing into the clear majority celebration, although the story will get sophisticated with the rise in voters calling themselves independents.
For the final 20 years, the events have primarily been tied, and it appears unlikely that may change anytime quickly. However there’s nonetheless a complete lot of realigning occurring. Donald Trump has accelerated the development of the white working class fleeing the Democrats. Meanwhile, college-educated and suburban voters have moved significantly toward the Democrats.
In different phrases, whereas the events are caught in a logjam, the coalitions making up the events are altering dramatically.
And that’s the place the inconsistency and hypocrisy are available. Events replicate the pursuits of their electoral coalitions. You may see indicators of the changes in every single place. Republicans similar to JD Vance are sounding quite a bit like anti-war Democrats from 20 years in the past, railing towards warmongers, rooster hawks and “neocons.” Democrats haven’t modified as dramatically, however they’re much more comfy speaking about American world management and the significance of our alliances than they was once.
Events additionally replicate their candidates, which is why the celebration of philandering Invoice Clinton now talks quite a bit about good character whereas Republicans fawn over Trump’s alpha canine “manliness.”
Democrats have been much more constant on abortion, as a result of in a post-Roe atmosphere it’s a successful difficulty. However Trump has moved the GOP towards a de facto pro-choice place, denouncing “heartbeat payments” whereas additionally insisting that states ought to be free to do what they please on abortion.
Neither celebration is coherent — or good, in my view — on commerce and industrial coverage, however Trump has undoubtedly made the GOP extra protectionist and dirigiste than at any level in my lifetime. Given the motion of rank-and-file members of personal labor unions towards the GOP it’s not laborious to think about a brand new partisan divide between public and private-sector unions.
Essentially the most attention-grabbing change is likely to be on the problem of democracy itself. I don’t imply the arguments about Trump’s pernicious election fraud lies (the kinds of lies once associated with left-wing Democrats like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.), however the broader debates concerning the electoral school and so-called voter suppression.
For many years, each events shared the flawed assumption that increased voter turnout principally benefited Democrats in nationwide elections; Democrats had the alternative view in big-city elections. Voter ID legal guidelines and tighter restrictions on early and absentee voting have been seen as a option to guarantee that high-propensity voters — that’s, disproportionately Republican, college-educated suburbanites who could possibly be relied upon to vote — have been overrepresented, and low-propensity voters — Black, Latino and rural non-college educated white voters — have been underrepresented. The overheated rhetoric about “voter suppression” or “election integrity” was unjustified. However the dynamic was actual, as a result of the electoral calculation was actual.
After 2016, many Democrats doubled down on the declare that the electoral school was racist or undemocratic, which was itself remarkably hypocritical given their earlier boasts that Democrats had a near-lock on the electoral school — that’s how the phrase “the blue wall” originated. Bragging about your benefit within the electoral school solely to name it racist and undemocratic when it really works towards you just isn’t an amazing look.
The Harris marketing campaign has relied on high-propensity voters whereas the Trump marketing campaign has leaned closely on low-propensity males. Assuming these traits are actual and that they turn into the brand new regular, it is going to be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the events change their rhetoric about democracy.
Once more, I’m writing earlier than the numerous states begin counting votes: Think about a state of affairs by which Harris wins the electoral school however loses the favored vote and the hypocritical switcheroo that would trigger. Instantly, Democrats is likely to be hailing the knowledge of the founders and Republicans is likely to be denouncing the electoral school as a rigged and racist relic.
