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“Angel’s Golden Crown to our President. God save the Czar!” declared in a Telegram publish by ultra-nationalist Russian thinker Aleksandr Dugin in his congratulatory message to Russian President Vladimir Putin who turned 72 final week.
Dugin is the founding father of neo-Eurasianism, a Russian Imperialist ideology, which underpins Putin’s anti-Western worldview. In his message, Dugin used an tailored model of an outdated Church Slavonic birthday greeting — “Golden Crown to your Angel Savior and good well being to you” — to congratulate the Russian strongman. The precise-wing ideologue, who is typically known as Putin’s mind, was wishing the golden crown that’s meant for the angel, for Putin himself.
Many within the West have been making an attempt to get contained in the Russian dictator’s mindset. Listed below are the highest 5 issues that in all probability determine prominently on Putin’s thoughts at this time.
LEGACY:
It’s not a coincidence that Dugin invoked Putin’s saintly standing in his birthday greeting. Putin has been cultivating a religious fatherly persona since he got here to energy virtually 1 / 4 of a century in the past. He needs to go away the legacy of a contemporary Czar Vladimir who resurrected Russia as a sovereign superpower in a “multipolar” world the place its chief arch-rival, the USA, is now not the dominant participant.
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When he assumed the reigns of Russia in 1999, Putin skillfully tapped into the psyche of the Russian individuals who have been eager for spirituality, having lived for seventy years below Soviet Communist rule the place faith was outlawed. Putin introduced again the sense of imperial exceptionalism and a singular, divinely impressed Russian civilization, neither Jap nor Western. This sentiment had been handed down by means of generations in Russia however considerably diminished within the aftermath of the us’s collapse and the lack of the Chilly Conflict.
Putin did this by reviving the Russian Orthodox Church, which was decimated throughout Soviet instances, and by making Christianity the de facto official faith of the state. The Russian folks, who suffered a crushing identification disaster after the demise of the us, embraced Putin’s name to reclaim Mom Russia’s rightful place on the earth.
Many Russians fell in love with Putin, having voted for him a number of instances. In spite of everything, he restored inner stability, reversed the financial disaster, and punished the “oligarchs,” business-savvy people, who had legally seized authorities property throughout Russia’s transition from central planning to a market-based economic system.
Up till two years in the past, when Russia invaded Ukraine, every little thing was going based on plan. Putin’s legacy was strong, from the attitude of an odd Russian. His presidency was safe nearly by means of 2036.
Right this moment, Putin has an issue. If he have been to die or resign now, his legacy would seemingly undergo even amongst many Russians. What his countrymen will keep in mind is the brutal warfare devastating Ukraine. The warfare claimed a complete of 1 million folks, Russians and Ukrainians mixed, as useless or gravely wounded. The thought of brother Slavic peoples, Russians and Ukrainians, killing one another for 2 and a half years for ever and ever goes counter even to Putin’s personal imaginative and prescient of integration of the Slavic and Eurasian folks.
Russian navy aged males and their households will keep in mind dwelling in concern of being despatched to the entrance traces in Ukraine. Putin is preserving Russia in a continuing state of mobilization, declared or covert, as he’s replenishing the troops for a protracted warfare. In September, Putin ordered, by decree, a 3rd, for the reason that starting of the warfare including 180,000 troops.
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The Russians, who like to trip and do enterprise in New York, Miami, London and Paris, will keep in mind for a very long time not being welcome wherever within the West.
PERSONAL SURVIVAL:
An authoritarian, Putin has all the time prioritized his safety and survivability. Paranoid about delicate details about his well being falling into the fingers of overseas intelligence companies, Putin brings a particular element on journeys outdoors the nation. These personnel acquire Putin’s excrement right into a specifically designed case and take it again to Russia for disposal.
Now that many within the West want him useless, in mild of unconscionable atrocities that the Ukrainians have been subjected to throughout this warfare, Putin’s concern for his security has reached a brand new degree. For the reason that invasion, each time potential, Putin prefers to journey by armored prepare, as a substitute of the presidential plane. The prepare travels at most velocity with no stops. Its departure and arrival instances are secret. In contrast to plane whose flight path needs to be documented prematurely, the prepare schedule doesn’t should be introduced, and its actions can’t be tracked by different companies. When Putin has to journey by air, his presidential airplane flies with no flight plan and with its transponders turned off, to maintain the place and route of the plane untrackable in actual time.
WAR WITH UKRAINE:
end what he began whereas avoiding a nuclear warfare. Putin underestimated the extent of push-back Russia would get from Ukraine and the extent of assist Kyiv has obtained from the U.S. and Europe to remain within the struggle. Having switched his technique from the failed blitzkrieg to the warfare of attrition, Putin has positioned Russia for victory. However regardless of the overwhelming benefit that Russia holds over Ukraine in fight potential – weapons, troops, protection economics and military-industrial manufacturing capability – it might take Russia at minimal one other 12 months to win or to compel Kyiv to desert the struggle.
Putin has satisfied many Western analysts that he’s taking part in for time. And at the least theoretically, the Russians do have the assets and sure the need to struggle until the final Ukrainian. Outlasting and outsuffering the enemy is how Russia fights and wins wars.
However the longer the warfare lasts, the upper the danger of Putin feeling compelled to make use of nuclear weapons to de-escalate or finish the warfare. It is because Zelenskyy has proven resilient, persistent, and skillful at securing extra U.S. and Western navy {hardware} at the same time as their very own weapons arsenals are quickly depleting. To date, President Biden has resisted authorizing Ukraine to make use of U.S. long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. However lots can occur in a 12 months. There’s no assure, in Putin’s thoughts, {that a} President Harris, whom Russian intelligence has assessed as incompetent and unintelligent, wouldn’t give Zelenskyy the inexperienced mild.
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A President Trump is much more of a risk to Russia, in Putin’s pondering. A talented negotiator, Trump might threaten Putin, privately, with the deployment of U.S. troops into the theater to help Ukraine and with giving Zelenskyy permission that Biden hasn’t. And Putin wouldn’t know whether or not Trump, whom Russian spy companies have assessed as “unpredictable” is critical or bluffing – not many individuals understand that though he by no means disparaged Putin publicly, Trump took a number of coverage actions, undermining Russia’s navy technique and Putin’s plans. Putin understands this.
Final month, Putin up to date Russia’s nuclear doctrine to make it even simpler to make use of nuclear weapons in the course of the present battle. Wargaming performed by our intelligence group confirmed that Putin would extremely seemingly launch tactical nuclear strikes in a battle on Russia’s periphery, in sure situations – exactly why Biden has abstained from testing Putin’s will.
In actuality, nonetheless, resorting to what the West considers “unthinkable” just isn’t a easy choice for Putin. What Putin can not predict is how somebody like Trump would reply to his crossing the nuclear threshold. Due to the U.S./NATO conventional superiority over Russia, if the U.S. will get instantly concerned on the battlefield in Ukraine, Putin can not win such a warfare. That’s with out utilizing strategic nuclear forces and weapons, way more highly effective than tactical or crippling cyber assaults on the U.S. homeland.
Each situations would result in World Conflict III, which might be catastrophic and unwinnable for anybody. Putin doesn’t need to face such a call. However so long as the warfare continues, he feels he might should.
SUCCESSION:
Putin believes he’s the most effective individual to rule Russia and assure its future as a fantastic energy (derzhava), destined by divine windfall for management on the earth, significantly in Eurasia. At 72, Putin has outlived the common Russian male, for whom life expectancy is 67.57 primarily based on 2022 statistics. A life-long athlete who doesn’t smoke and doesn’t abuse alcohol, Putin is in wonderful well being. Nonetheless, as a rational individual, ideas of his mortality and consequently succession seemingly have crossed his thoughts.
There’s no apparent successor to switch Putin presently. Below the Russian system, successors are handpicked however not until the present chief is able to depart, to keep away from the notion of a weak regime. After which elections comply with as a professional forma course of. It is how former Russian President Boris Yeltsin chosen Putin to switch him in 1999.
FAMILY FUTURE:
One other factor that Russian rulers do is make sure that their members of the family should not held accountable for his or her crimes and misdeeds. Yeltsin, previous to relinquishing his reigns of Russia to Putin made a cope with the KGB operative. One of many very first actions that appearing President Vladimir Putin took was to challenge a decree granting immunity to Yeltsin and members of his household from prosecution for corruption. The Decree assured that Mr Yeltsin can be immune from “prosecution, arrest, bodily search and interrogation”. And this immunity lined his “place of residence, his workplaces if he continues to work, his automobiles, his technique of communication, his baggage and his correspondence”. Putin stored his phrase.
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Putin has two grownup daughters from his first marriage, Maria and Yekaterina, each of their late 30s, and is assessed to have two secret kids from his a lot youthful long-time girlfriend, former gymnast Alina Kabaeva. Ivan Putin (born in 2015) and Vladimir Putin Jr. (born in 2019) dwell with their mom in Putin’s Valdai residence, northwest of Moscow, and are guarded by the Federal Guard Service (FSO), a tough equal of our Secret Service.
Putin, who has an excellent arrest warrant from the Worldwide Legal Court docket, little doubt needs to make sure that his offspring aren’t held accountable for his crimes. And that was additionally seemingly on his thoughts, as he was ringing in his 72nd birthday.