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As we begin the final month of the presidential campaign, the race seems to stay very shut – very similar to each election of this century (apart from Barack Obama’s first race in 2008). The newest Fox Information nationwide ballot exhibits a two-point race within the nationwide in style vote, with Vice President Kamala Harris barely forward of former President Trump 50-48 – and every of the seven key battleground states equally displaying the candidates inside the margin of error from one another.
If you wish to drop into the weeds (and I suppose that’s why they pay me), I believe there stay 5 key numbers that can point out which candidate has the momentum within the race – and let you know which marketing campaign is nearer to attaining its aim.
I’d argue the important thing “weeds that depend” are: Trump’s “quantity,” Trump’s support among Hispanic and African American voters, Harris’s help amongst Republicans who don’t describe themselves as “MAGA,” and Harris-Walz help amongst voters in rural America.
TRUMP CAN WIN ON THESE 3 KEY ISSUES, MICHIGAN VOTERS TELL FOX
Trump’s quantity is the quantity I’ve checked out all yr: His share of the favored vote. All yr it has hovered round 48% – in all of the most-respected public polls. Trump’s political persona is about as solidified as any American politician in my skilled lifetime. There may be little that he, his detractors, or his supporters can say or do that can shake voters’ impression of him – both positively or negatively. His vote share has principally remained what it’s by means of nearly a decade of his public life.
The presidential election comes right down to how nicely former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris carry out on the numbers – from how Trump does with minorities to how Harris does with non-MAGA Republicans.
So, all yr I’ve centered on Trump’s share of the vote. It isn’t going to alter dramatically, however small swings might point out energy or rising weaknesses. The arc of Harris’s marketing campaign – she shortly consolidated help among the many bulk of voters who’d advised pollsters from 2023 till July that they had been “undecided.” They weren’t actually undecided. They had been voters who didn’t like Trump however had been lukewarm about President Joe Biden. And now the majority of them are within the Harris column.
However what about the remaining? Now once I have a look at the undecided quantity (and it’s remarkably small), I believe there is likely to be some hidden Trump vote there. For instance, Trump is at ~47% within the higher polls in Florida, and hovering round 50% in Texas in equally revered polls. That’s beneath the 52% he acquired in Texas in each 2016 and 2020, and the 51% he acquired in Florida in 2020.
He’ll nearly definitely win each states, which means that some people telling pollsters they’re “undecided” will, ultimately, select Trump. Alternatively, it may very well be an indication of some weak point amongst Trump voters.
The voter teams the place Trump is displaying shocking energy is his help amongst minorities, particularly Hispanic and African American voters. Previous to dropping out of the race, Biden was doing remarkably poorly amongst these teams; Trump had gotten lower than 10% of the African American vote in 2020, and 35% of Hispanic help.
Within the latest Fox News national poll (September), Trump is getting over 40% of the Hispanic vote and nearly 30% of the Black vote. And it explains the closeness of the contests within the battleground states. these numbers is vital. If Trump can proceed to run robust amongst Hispanic voters, he’ll possible win Arizona and Nevada. If Harris can recapture a number of the 2020 Biden energy amongst African Individuals, she’ll be capable to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
Conversely, the Harris numbers to take a look at are her help amongst rural voters (the locus of Trump’s base) and at her help amongst Republicans who say they aren’t a part of the MAGA (Make America Nice Once more) motion.
One of many causes Harris picked Minnesota Governor, and infrequently people, Tim Walz, was to attempt to make inroads amongst rural voters. They didn’t need to win the agricultural vote – they only needed to lose by much less. It was the agricultural vote that possible earned Trump victories in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2016 and propelled him into the White Home.
Can he do it? Up to now, the jury is out. His suboptimal efficiency within the Vance-Walz debate possible did little to win over rural voters – however they’re nonetheless at it. He doesn’t seem to thoughts going into rural settings – the place he’s typically greeted by Trump supporters booing him – so it’s a quantity that’s key to check.
Sen. JD Vance did surprisingly nicely within the vice-presidential debate with non-MAGA Republicans. Gov. Tim Walz wasn’t as profitable with viewers, however there’s nonetheless time for him to attain factors with rural voters. (Michele Crowe/CBS through Getty Photographs)
Lastly, there stays the non-MAGA GOP voters. Someplace between 1 / 4 to a 3rd of GOP voters describe themselves as “non-MAGA.” This was the group who supported former Ambassador Nikki Haley within the primaries. At the moment, in accordance with the Fox Information Voter Evaluation of Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire and South Carolina main voters, nearly half of them mentioned they’d not vote for Trump in November.
There are solely restricted indicators of Trump weak point amongst that group now that we’re in a normal election marketing campaign. Nonetheless, in the latest Fox Information Arizona state ballot, roughly one-in-five non-MAGA GOP voters mentioned they had been supporting Harris. That interprets to roughly 6% of GOP voters “defecting” to Harris. That’s sufficient to maintain the state shut, however in all probability not sufficient to win. Nonetheless, it represents a transparent hazard sign for Trump.
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Of explicit concern are different indicators of non-MAGA defection. For instance, the identical ballot examined the Senate race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Reuben Gallego. In that race (the place Gallego has a transparent lead), Totally 16% of Republicans mentioned they’d vote for Gallego. 6% of GOP Arizona voters would vote for Harris and one other 10% mentioned that whereas they’d vote for Trump, they’d defect from the GOP within the Senate race.
Both approach, it exhibits the instability of GOP help – and a wavering amongst some elements of the GOP.
If Trump is ready to shore up that non-MAGA weak point, he’ll be nicely positioned in November – if Harris is ready to pull a few of them to her facet, she’ll be well-positioned. So, her numbers amongst non-MAGA GOP voters is vital.
Suprisingly sufficient, in that Vance-Walz debate, Vance did an excellent job of making an attempt to enchantment to that non-MAGA group. I say surprisingly, since when Trump picked Vance, some analysts complained that Trump had doubled down on the MAGA wing of the social gathering – and left the non-MAGA (the Haley voter) by the wayside.
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However Vance’s clean explication of his (and Trump’s) positions on faculty violence, the warfare within the Center East, and immigration – in all probability went a protracted strategy to making an attempt to ameliorate Trump’s non-MAGA weak point.
Sure, it’s within the weeds, and, sure, the subgroups are small relative to the general nation. In these numbers, observe that they’re topic to a major margin of error. They might present proof of a shift or simply statistical noise. However they’re the important thing numbers to observe within the coming weeks: Trump’s total quantity, Trump’s help amongst minorities, the Harris vote in rural America, and the Harris vote amongst non-MAGA GOP voters.
