World leaders use their first foreign trips to signal political priorities

World leaders’ first international journeys reveal greater than diplomatic protocol. They’re rigorously crafted political tales. Meray Maddah and Max Heermann analyse inaugural diplomatic journeys to uncover stability and alter in international networks, from Europe’s political integration to Donald Trump’s break from conventional allies

On 7 Could 2025, a day after turning into German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz travelled to Paris and Warsaw, assembly French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Two days later, Merz arrived in Brussels for talks with EU and NATO officers. His predecessor Olaf Scholz had been seen as passive and hampered by inner disagreements in his coalition authorities. Merz’s flurry of travels was purported to ship a robust sign: Germany is again as chief in European politics.

State visits by heads of state or authorities (HOGs) matter for diplomatic and financial relations – first journeys particularly sign political priorities and ambitions. The 2025 Country and Organizational Leader Travel (COLT) dataset, compiled by Jonathan Moyer and colleagues, analyses over 78,000 foreign trips by HOGs, and is a invaluable useful resource for learning international patterns of diplomacy.

First diplomatic journeys, 2010s–2023

The graphic under makes use of COLT information to map international inaugural journeys between 2010 and 2023. Arrows point out course of journey; line thickness how incessantly a route was chosen as a primary journey. Node measurement displays cumulative inbound visits for the reason that Nineteen Nineties, so some international locations seem massive, regardless of receiving few current first visits. Totally different node shapes characterize diplomatic roles throughout the complete dataset: triangles mark sender-only states; squares are receivers and senders.

It’s not stunning that Merz visited Paris first. COLT exhibits the close diplomatic ties between Germany and France. French Presidents Macron, François Hollande, and Nicolas Sarkozy all made their first journeys to Berlin. Likewise, Angela Merkel selected France as her first-trip vacation spot for her third and fourth phrases as German Chancellor. The node measurement of small Belgium reveals its central place in (Western) diplomacy. Internet hosting EU establishments and NATO headquarters, Belgium attracted many state leaders, together with Merkel and Scholz.

First journeys by leaders: Africa, Asia and Europe

Merz’s second vacation spot, Poland, is nicely built-in into Europe’s journey community. Curiously, Polish Presidents’ inaugural journeys replicate the country’s deep Catholicism. The primary democratically elected President Lech Wałęsa in 1991, and Lech Kaczyński in 2005, each travelled first to the Vatican. In his second time period, Andrzej Duda mixed a visit to Italy and the Vatican. Russia stays a central diplomatic hub for former Japanese bloc international locations. Vladimir Putin sometimes travels first to international locations he nonetheless counts a part of Russia’s sphere of affect.

Regional patterns past Europe

Past Europe, distinct regional patterns emerge. First journeys in Asia steadiness neighbourhood ties and alignment with main powers. Indian prime ministers typically begin with smaller neighbours: Manmohan Singh, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Inder Kumar Gujral visited Thailand, Sri Lanka and the Maldives respectively. Narendra Modi, too, started his second time period with the latter, reaffirming India’s regional leadership. In the meantime, Chinese language Presidents Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping chosen Russia, underscoring their strategic partnership. Israeli prime ministers Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert, and Naftali Bennett travelled first to the USA. But Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-return marked a departure. Netanyahu visited Jordan first, suggesting a recalibrated diplomatic message towards regional stability. In Africa, first journeys additionally replicate regional priorities and historic ties. South African presidents constantly go to liberation-era allies like Mozambique and Angola; Nigerian leaders typically begin in neighbouring states like Cameroon or Kenya.

First journeys in Asia steadiness neighbourhood ties and alignment with main powers; in Africa, first journeys additionally replicate regional priorities and historic ties

In Australia, early post-Chilly Conflict leaders, reminiscent of Paul Keating, prioritised neighbours like Indonesia and New Zealand. Latest prime ministers deal with strategic and financial partnerships. Malcolm Turnbull’s back-to-back journeys to New Zealand and China, Morrison’s go to to Singapore, and Anthony Albanese’s selection of Japan signal a recalibration toward the Indo-Pacific.

First journeys by leaders: Americas and Oceania

In Latin America, neighbourhood diplomacy dominates. Brazilian presidents start with regional allies: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Ecuador firstly of each of his phrases, Dilma Rousseff began her first time period with a visit to Argentina and her second in Bolivia. Mexico presents a various sample. Most presidents go to Central or South American neighbours: Rafael Ángel Calderón Fournier to Nicaragua and Enrique Peña Nieto to Chile. Others, nevertheless, made early journeys to Switzerland, the US or the UK. This mixture of regional engagement and extra-hemispheric diplomacy displays Mexico’s twin positioning as a Latin American power and NAFTA / USMCA member.

World agendas

US Presidents additionally alternate between visiting neighbours and strategic international companions. Invoice Clinton started his first time period with Canada and his second with Finland, reflecting closeness and transatlantic priorities. George W. Bush went first to Mexico and later pivoted to Europe. Echoing this, Barack Obama began in Canada and turned to Israel in his second time period. Breaking with custom, Trump selected Saudi Arabia for his first journeys in 2017 and 2025. Joe Biden first travelled to the UK for the G7 Summit, suggesting renewed emphasis on alliance restore and international coordination. Whereas Canada, Mexico, and the UK are sometimes early stops, the complete sample reveals how US leaders use their maiden journey to navigate not simply proximity, however shifting international agendas.

US leaders use their maiden journey to navigate not simply proximity, however shifting international agendas

Political storytelling

First international visits are greater than diplomatic routine – they’re political storytelling. By narrowing our focus to inaugural journeys solely, we get a clearer image of the symbolism. The patterns we see usually are not random: regional allies typically take precedence, and (opposite to traditional expectations) World South leaders prioritise neighbouring states over former colonial powers.

Regional allies typically take precedence for leaders’ first journeys, and World South leaders prioritise neighbouring states over former colonial powers

Our findings recommend that inaugural journeys replicate rising regional dynamics and management aspirations relatively than merely reproducing historic hierarchies. However there’s room for recalibration. Leaders could deviate from previous precedent to sign new instructions – whether or not that is Netanyahu prioritising Jordan or Trump launching his diplomacy in Riyadh. In a world of diplomatic overload, the primary journey stands out as a uncommon second of narrative management. It tells us the place and the way a pacesetter needs to be seen.