State assemblyman and mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has develop into Cuomo’s nearest rival.
Photograph: Adam Grey/Bloomberg by way of Getty Photographs
By no means earlier than, in trendy instances at the least, has a New York City mayoral race identified such a era hole.
Andrew Cuomo, the previous governor and unquestioned front-runner within the June Democratic major, seems poised to dominate the first with Democrats over the age of 45. These Gen-X-ers and child boomers, as the author Michael Lange points out, kind the bedrock of the voters within the 5 boroughs. They’re common voters, taking part in elections at disproportionately excessive charges. They have a tendency to both be householders or longtime residents; they transfer much less and really feel, on the stability, deeply invested in native democracy. For greater than a decade, they forged votes for Cuomo, and the polling reveals they’re prepared to take action once more. Cuomo’s myriad scandals — his resignation in 2021 after he was accused of sexual harassment, his administration of the pandemic — don’t appear to trouble all of them that a lot. After 4 years of Adams-administration chaos, they lengthy for a steadier hand, and a three-term governor with tangible accomplishments does, on the minimal, provide that.
Cuomo’s high rival, as of now, is a 33-year-old state assemblyman named Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani, an Indian American who was born in Uganda, has constantly polled second to Cuomo — if a distant second — and has quickly constructed up title recognition by means of social-media channels Cuomo largely ignores. Mamdani is the candidate of Instagram, X, and TikTok, a proud democratic socialist who has received a bevy of recent followers by means of his witty movies and guarantees to freeze rents and make buses free. Like AOC, he has grown extremely popular within the youthful, gentrifying belts of Brooklyn and Queens, and he’s outraised each candidate within the race, together with Cuomo, although the ex-governor can nonetheless pound the airwaves along with his super-PAC. (Disclosure: Once I ran for workplace in 2018, Mamdani was my marketing campaign supervisor.)
Cuomo and Mamdani couldn’t be extra totally different. Cuomo is a 67-year-old white man who has been within the maw of politics longer than Mamdani has been alive. He spent a lot of his profession as an govt, and he embodies the triangulating, centrist wing of his social gathering. He has shut relationships with company executives and real-estate builders; he loathes the progressive left and has made his mayoral marketing campaign a referendum on their insurance policies, together with defunding the police and never sufficiently supporting Israel. Cuomo and Mamdani briefly overlapped in Albany: The democratic socialist entered the Legislature in 2021, representing the leftist hotbed of Astoria, and was one of many lawmakers who might need voted to question the governor if he hadn’t resigned.
The starkest divide between the 2 males may be on Israel — and this, maybe greater than another single subject, represents the brand new era hole. Cuomo is a staunch Israel hawk who has traveled to the Jewish State quite a few instances. Earlier than COVID, his relationship with the Orthodox Jewish group was extremely sturdy — voters there soured on Cuomo when he imposed pandemic lockdowns on their neighborhoods, although if the first boils right down to Mamdani and Cuomo, they’ll fortunately again the ex-governor — and he has by no means provided public criticism of the Israeli authorities, even within the wake of the conflict in Gaza. Final yr, Cuomo joined Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorized crew after the Worldwide Felony Courtroom issued a warrant for his arrest, charging the Israeli prime minister with conflict crimes.
Mamdani, in the meantime, has spent a lot of his life within the trenches of pro-Palestinian activism. Up to now, he has recognized as an anti-Zionist, and he’s a supporter of the BDS (boycott, divestment and sanctions) motion towards Israel. After the Trump administration tried to deport Mahmoud Khalil, the previous Columbia pupil who led protests towards the conflict in Gaza final yr, Mamdani emerged as one of many fiercest critics of the MAGA motion, even confronting Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, in Albany. Cuomo stated little about Khalil’s arrest.
In New York Metropolis, like America, Israel will be the greatest dividing line between voters of their 20s and 30s and those that are older. The youngest voters take an more and more dim view of Israel; amongst Democrats, it’s nearly unimaginable to seek out an Israel hawk who’s overly well-liked with a voter born after 1984 or so. Most polling reveals, although, that older voters stay loyal to Israel, particularly Jews. Liberals of a sure era can nonetheless recall Labor Zionism and a time when the fitting wing of the Israel was marginalized. Professional-Palestinian activism makes them cautious, and lots of regard BDS as antisemitic.
Historically, a Democrat operating for mayor of New York needed to be unequivocally supportive of Israel. Within the 2013 open Democratic major that elected Invoice de Blasio, each single candidate, de Blasio included, was an unflinching Israel backer. It was a time when proud progressives like de Blasio may nonetheless courtroom Orthodox Jewish voters and take frequent Israel journeys with out encountering any backlash. In 2021, that started to alter: Andrew Yang, the preliminary front-runner, took a substantial amount of warmth from progressives for sending out a tweet in help of Israel and its navy. Eric Adams, the eventual winner, was additionally a powerful defender of Israel, however most media consideration, at that second, was skilled on Yang.
That 2021 major may have been a generation-gap election, however there have been too many viable candidates and the polling remained way more unstable. That yr’s Mamdani equal was in all probability Dianne Morales, a political neophyte who excited leftists however presided over one of many extra chaotic campaigns in dwelling reminiscence. Maya Wiley, a former de Blasio administration official, additionally wolfed up votes from youthful Democrats, however she misplaced out in ranked-choice voting to Kathryn Garcia, a relative centrist who received over extra prosperous liberals, and Adams.
If the left, technically, isn’t unified in 2025 — the Working Households Occasion has additionally endorsed Brad Lander, the town comptroller; Adrienne Adams, the Metropolis Council Speaker; and Brooklyn state senator Zellnor Myrie — all of the power and money has flowed to Mamdani. Within the precincts of Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Bushwick, Sunnyside, Lengthy Island Metropolis, Astoria, and Jackson Heights, Mamdani is poised to romp to victory. Provided that he’s already on TV, blasting advertisements throughout Knicks playoff video games, it’s believable he’s profitable votes wherever a television-owning Gen Z or millennial resides. If Cuomo actually blows him out with voters of their 50s, 60s, and 70s, the ex-governor is properly on his technique to changing into the subsequent mayor, however the youthful vote can’t be solely discounted. In 2021, Mamdani’s Astoria Meeting District outvoted components of Southeast Queens, an older, largely Black area the place Cuomo ought to carry out fairly properly. A rising share of youthful, professional-class voters are registered as Democrats and displaying up in primaries. The 2016 and 2020, Bernie Sanders campaigns taught at the least one lesson to those progressives: Higher register as a Democrat to matter in New York.
Mamdani’s marketing campaign will probably be a take a look at of how far pro-Palestine politics can go in a New York mayoral race. It’s not an exaggeration to say that there has by no means been a aggressive candidate like Mamdani in a citywide Democratic major earlier than; he’s younger, Muslim, and unapologetically left wing. Orthodox Jewish voters and lots of moderates received’t go close to him. Progressives will do something they will to elect him. One wild card that does transcend generations is the Muslim and South Asian vote. New York is dwelling to an rising share of each, and Mamdani is aggressively courting them, visiting mosques and temples and touting his work serving to metropolis taxi drivers. Cuomo’s base, in the meantime, is far more conventional, a mixture of working- and middle-class Black and Latino voters together with older white ethnics. If the non-Mamdani, anti-Cuomo candidates can’t carry out higher, Cuomo may additionally swallow up a few of Garcia’s voters in decrease Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn. Up to now, Mamdani has carried out in addition to anybody may have imagined for a state legislator who remains to be too younger to legally function president. However whether or not that’s sufficient to sluggish Cuomo’s juggernaut stays to be seen.
