Australians are more and more avoiding journey to the US beneath Donald Trump’s second presidency, contemporary knowledge reveals, with forecasters anticipating vacationer numbers to plummet additional all year long.
Official statistics from the US Worldwide Commerce Administration reveal the variety of guests from Australia in March 2025 was down by 7% in contrast with March 2024 – a discount of 4,559 folks.
That is the biggest decline since March 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic was disrupting worldwide journey.
The figures – which depend any go to of a number of nights – additionally present sharp drops in visitors from Europe and other areas, as nations up to date their journey recommendation for the US. Abroad arrivals to the US from all origins dropped 11.6% in March, the federal government knowledge confirmed.
The downturn in journey following Trump’s inauguration exceeded even the worldwide tourism trade’s worst case predictions, according to travel analytics group Tourism Economics.
Other than the long-term weak spot within the Australian greenback that means costlier holidayss, a string of incidents with US border protocols since January might have left some reconsidering their vacation spot.
Guardian Australia final week reported the case of an Australian man with a working visa who was detained and deported on returning to the US. The person alleged border officers known as him “retarded” and boasted “Trump is again on the town”.
In the meantime, an award-winning Australian comic cancelled a planned trip to the US after receiving legal advice that she may very well be stopped on the border as a consequence of her earlier jokes in regards to the Trump administration.
The incidents have prompted unease among Australian academics, a lot of whom are actually refusing to attend US conferences for concern of being detained.
Gender-diverse Australians have also been warned they could face visa delays following Trump’s govt order on gender.
James Kavanagh, Flight Centre’s CEO of leisure journey, stated that whereas the US has lengthy been a agency favorite for Australian travellers, “we should acknowledge the political setting within the US and the truth that it might affect Australians’ choices on the place they select to journey”.
“For instance, wanting on the first quarter of 2024 [compared with 2025], whereas we’ve seen a slight decline in bookings to the USA, we’ve seen a big uplift in bookings to east Asia and northern Europe,” he stated.
Melissa Elf, world COO of Flight Centre’s company wing, stated that whereas bookings from Australian enterprise travellers had thus far remained “resilient”, the introduction of tariffs might see companies look away from the US and to locations like “Asia and the Center East”.
“It’s a really completely different panorama at present in comparison with what it was at the start of the yr, and we’re aware that main adjustments which have occurred within the US, and tariffs which are being utilized to Australian firms might even see corporates prioritise enterprise and commerce with different nations,” she stated.
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“We’re additionally seeing an attention-grabbing change within the companies travelling to the US out of Australia. Final yr, [the] mining, IT and training sectors led company journey to the USA, however this yr, it’s being led by training, authorities and mining. Once more, this simply reveals how completely different sectors will prioritise completely different nations for enterprise, primarily based on the place the chance lies,” Elf stated.
Tourism Economics additionally named Trump’s affect as damaging the US as a destination. “Insurance policies and pronouncements from the Trump administration have contributed to a rising wave of destructive sentiment towards the US amongst potential worldwide travellers,” it stated in a briefing issued on Friday.
“Heightened border safety measures and visual immigration enforcement actions are amplifying considerations.”
Whereas the decline in vacationer arrivals in March was strongest from Canada, at greater than 20%, and western Europe, with nations equivalent to Germany recording an nearly 30% drop – Oceania (of which Australia is the biggest market) is a part of the pattern, the company stated.
It predicts a 9.4% drop in inbound worldwide tourism over the course of 2025, however famous this might develop with additional volatility from the Trump administration.
“These sentiment shifts characterize a backlash to commerce insurance policies and different pronouncements that focus on particular person nations – together with nation leaders, nationwide industries, and residents – in ways in which elicit robust responses,” an earlier April briefing stated.
“Trump Administration shifts on Ukraine and longstanding alliances, and home points – such because the therapy of sure classes of people – are additionally contributing to the sentiment shift, casting the US in a brand new, much less beneficial mild for a lot of potential travellers. Leisure vacationers, in addition to enterprise occasion organizers and members, are anticipated to shift away from the US in response,” it discovered.
However there could also be one silver lining to the traveller reticence – Kavanagh says airline capability between the US and Australia has elevated in latest months, which doubtless means decrease airfares.
Air France and KLM are among European carriers to cut air fares to the US to fill seats on their deliberate capacities this yr.
