Trump’s Golden Dome defence project could spur a space arms race

US President Donald Trump has proposed a defence venture, referred to as the Golden Dome, to intercept any incoming hypersonic, ballistic and superior cruise missiles that threaten the nation.

“As soon as absolutely constructed, the Golden Dome will probably be able to intercepting missiles even when they’re launched from different sides of the world and even when they’re launched from area,” stated Trump through the White Home announcement on 20 Could.

However such a radical interception system might not be attainable. Some consultants additionally warn that, even when it really works, the Golden Dome would take no less than a decade to construct, value greater than half a trillion {dollars} – and speed up the worldwide nuclear arms race and the weaponisation of area.

What’s the Golden Dome?

The venture’s title is inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome system, which makes use of ground-based missiles to intercept incoming rockets and artillery fired from comparatively brief distances. However the Golden Dome would wish to defend a far bigger space – the land mass of the contiguous US alone is greater than 350 occasions the scale of Israel – from a greater variety of subtle missiles.

In line with Trump and his officers, the system ought to be capable of counter ballistic missiles that may very well be launched from the opposite aspect of the world, superior cruise missiles that fly on flatter trajectories at decrease altitudes and hypersonic missiles that may fly and manoeuvre at speeds exceeding Mach 5, 5 occasions the velocity of sound. These missiles can carry both nuclear warheads or typical explosive warheads.

To detect and intercept the threats, the Golden Dome will use each “space-based sensors and air and missile protection”, US Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth stated in a statement. That suggests an umbrella system of “Golden Domes” with completely different applied sciences countering completely different threats, says David Burbach on the Naval Battle School in Rhode Island, who shared some feedback with New Scientist in a private capability.

Nevertheless, not all of those defences exist. As an illustration, the Golden Dome would supposedly use space-based interceptor missiles in low Earth orbit, an unprecedented technological feat that has by no means been demonstrated earlier than, says Thomas González Roberts on the Georgia Institute of Know-how in Atlanta.

An analogous concept, nicknamed Star Wars, was initially proposed by US President Ronald Reagan in his Strategic Defense Initiative through the chilly battle. In reality, Trump has described the Golden Dome as an effort to finish “the job that President Reagan began 40 years in the past”.

How will the Golden Dome work?

Missile defence consultants describe the problem of intercepting long-range nuclear missiles as being like “hitting a bullet with a bullet, at the hours of darkness” as a result of “the targets are small, not emitting any radio or infrared alerts, and fast-paced”, says Burbach. “One factor to remember is that even optimistic technical consultants admit 100 per cent interception is unlikely.”

The US already has a system of ground-based interceptor missiles, based totally in Alaska. They will shoot down “a pair dozen incoming warheads at greatest”, says Burbach. He additionally identified that Russia and China are growing countermeasures to make it more durable to detect and intercept their missiles.

“Stopping subsonic cruise missiles or short-range ballistic missiles launched from simply outdoors US borders would use established know-how, but it surely may very well be costly to deploy sufficient of these defensive methods to cowl the entire nation,” says Burbach. “The true problem will probably be Golden Dome’s goal to cease giant numbers of intercontinental missiles – President Trump stated ‘100 per cent’ of them – comparable to an assault from China or Russia.”

Trump’s declare that the Golden Dome would defend in opposition to missile strikes from the opposite aspect of the world and even from area implies it could require a “dense constellation of probably low-Earth orbiting, space-based missile interceptors that would deorbit and strike a missile inside minutes of it launching” from anyplace, says Roberts.

“The variety of satellites you would wish is larger than any constellation that’s ever been launched,” he says. At the moment, the most important constellation consists of round 7000 Starlink satellites operated by SpaceX.

How a lot will the Golden Dome value?

Trump proposed a price range of $175 billion for the Golden Dome, though that funding has not but been accredited by the US Congress. And the Congressional Price range Workplace, a nonpartisan federal company, estimated {that a} space-based interceptor system like Golden Dome may value as a lot as $542 billion.

“It’s unclear what expenditures are included within the $175 billion determine,” says Patrycja Bazylczyk on the Heart for Strategic & Worldwide Research, a suppose tank in Washington DC.

Trump additionally claimed the Golden Dome can be “absolutely operational” by the top of his second time period in workplace in early 2029, though consultants doubt that’s attainable. “The three-year timeline is aggressive – this initiative is more likely to span no less than a decade, if no more,” says Bazylczyk.

A lot of the timeline might depend on what number of current navy methods it makes use of. “Vital progress is possible within the close to time period, together with fielding new interceptors, over-the-horizon radars, space-based sensors and know-how demonstrations,” says Bazylczyk.

However there are main limitations to how rapidly the US may launch the possibly 1000’s of satellites required for Golden Dome – to say nothing of growing the space-based interceptor applied sciences.

“I feel you’d be very hard-pressed to discover a launch cadence that would assist a big constellation going up in simply three years,” says Roberts. “SpaceX launches extra issues extra usually than anybody within the historical past of area operations, and the ask right here is to crack open that ceiling even additional.”

“I feel it’s virtually inconceivable a system may very well be ‘absolutely operational’ within the sense of ‘cease 100 per cent of a missile assault’ that rapidly,” says Burbach. “Reaching even a small-scale operational functionality that quickly can be very troublesome.”

Will Golden Dome make the US safer?

There may be already an ongoing arms race between the US, China and Russia, with all three international locations modernising and expanding their nuclear arsenals, in addition to growing space-based systems to assist their militaries.

If the Golden Dome system can enhance US air and missile defences, it may “change the strategic calculus” by decreasing the boldness of any missile-armed adversary, deterring them from launching assaults within the first place, says Bazylczyk.

Alternatively, the Golden Dome has the “potential to contribute to instability” by “signalling to your nuclear adversaries that you just don’t belief them”, says Roberts. China’s international ministry responded to Trump’s announcement by saying the Golden Dome carries “sturdy offensive implications” and raises the dangers of an arms race in area. A Kremlin spokesperson suggested the Golden Dome plans may result in resumption of nuclear arms management discussions between Russia and the US.

To counter this technique, China and Russia may attempt to “destroy or disable US satellites”, says Burbach. Each international locations have already got missiles able to capturing down satellites, and so they may additionally attempt to electronically jam or hack US satellite tv for pc methods, he says. In February 2024, the US authorities warned that Russia had plans to launch a space weapon able to disabling or destroying satellites, probably utilizing a nuclear explosion.

These international locations may additionally bulk up their missile arsenals and probably develop extra manoeuvrable weapons that additionally use decoys, says Burbach. He identified that Russia has already began growing weapons much less weak to space-based interception, comparable to intercontinental nuclear torpedoes that journey underwater.