Good morning. Conservative occasion members have chosen a brand new chief and the winner might be introduced shortly after 11am, at an occasion in London. This has solely occurred 4 instances earlier than since William Hague modified the principles 1 / 4 of century in the past to make sure members, not MPs, take the ultimate determination about who needs to be chief. The method has not at all times labored very properly – there’s been a failure price of no less than 50%, typical knowledge would – which is one purpose why he thinks his rule change has been a mistake.
The 2 apparent failures have been Iain Duncan Smith, who was elected chief in 2001 however changed after two years after MPs concluded he was lower than the job, and Liz Truss, who solely lasted two months. The members’ determination to elect David Cameron in 2005 is usually seen as one, as a result of he led his occasion again into energy and received a second, shock election victory. Members additionally voted for Boris Johnson in 2019; like Cameron, he additionally turned out to be an election-winner, however his report as PM was so dire, and triggered such lasting reputational harm to the occasion, that it’s controversial that this was a nasty selection too.
This time members have had to decide on between Kemi Badenoch, the previous enterprise secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the previous immigration minister. It’s usually assumed that probably the most rightwing candidate will at all times win in a Conservative leadership contest, and that helps to clarify what occurred with Duncan Smith and Truss; members selected the rightwinger when polling proof stated a extra “centrist” rival would have been extra standard with floating voters and the general public at massive. However this contest has been uncommon in that each candidates on the ultimate poll have been working as rightwingers. James Cleverly, the previous international secretary and former dwelling secretary, who was the main “average” within the contest and who was the clear winner of the Conservative convention management “magnificence contest” was unexpectedly knocked out within the remaining poll of MPs.
Badenoch is anticipated to win. There haven’t been any current polls of members (polling is pricey, and media curiosity within the consequence of the competition is just not precisely huge) however the ConservativeHome web site carries out surveys of occasion members which have at all times reliably predicted the winner in management contests and its last one, printed on 25 October, stated Badenoch was comfortably forward. It had her on 55%, Jenrick on 31% and don’t is aware of on 14%.
My colleague Esther Addley has written profiles of the 2 candidates that are right here.
Immediately I might be focusing nearly completely on the Tory management contest, though I’ll cowl another UK politics as properly. The outcomes are being introduced at an occasion in London the place Richard Fuller, the occasion chair, will ship a brief speech, and Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, will announce the brand new. The brand new chief will then ship a brief speech.
Sooner or later the brand new chief must appoint a shadow cupboard, however it isn’t clear but when that can occur. One individual, nevertheless, received’t be obtainable; Cleverly has stated he desires to remain on the backbenches. The revelation got here in an article by Lucy Fisher, who interviewed him for her paper’s “Lunch with the Monetary Instances” characteristic slot. She writes:
[Cleverly] has voted within the management contest, however is not going to verify whether or not he backed Badenoch or Jenrick. He resolutely refuses to critique — not to mention criticise — both candidate, conceding solely that he doesn’t “at all times agree” with them.
All three indicated they envisaged a smaller state and decrease taxes. However Cleverly didn’t share Badenoch’s campaign towards “woke” ideology, whereas he diverged from Jenrick over his vows to stop the European Conference on Human Rights and to radically cut back internet inward migration to “tens of hundreds” of individuals yearly.
Whereas he insists he’ll do every little thing he can to make sure the victor is a “roaring success”, he reveals he’ll achieve this from the backbenches for now — he’s not planning to serve within the subsequent chief’s group as a shadow minister.
If you wish to contact me, please publish a message beneath the road (BTL) or message me on social media. I can’t learn all of the messages BTL, however in the event you put “Andrew” in a message geared toward me, I’m extra prone to see it as a result of I seek for posts containing that phrase.
If you wish to flag one thing up urgently, it’s best to make use of social media. I’m nonetheless utilizing X and I’ll see one thing addressed to @AndrewSparrow in a short time. I’m additionally making an attempt Bluesky (@andrewsparrowgdn) and Threads (@andrewsparrowtheguardian).
I discover it very useful when readers level out errors, even minor typos (no error is simply too small to appropriate). And I discover your questions very attention-grabbing too. I can’t promise to answer to all of them, however I’ll attempt to reply to as many as I can, both BTL or typically within the weblog.
