The unceremonious ouster of Syrian President Bashar al Assad marks the demise of the final Ba’athist regime within the Center East. The tip of the 54-year-long Assad dynasty can herald a brand new period within the fragile physique politic of Syria.
The comparatively well-organized Hayat Tahrir al Sham insurgent pressure liquidated the resistance energy of presidency forces inside just some days. The regime change, and the resultant uncertainty in Syria, invite regional powers to intervene for political and strategic spoils. Israel additionally carried out numerous air strikes to dismantle Syrian army and strategic capabilities.
The Asad regime posed a major problem for the US, which led the US to support rebel factions. The lack of the regime is a major setback to Iran’s axis of resistance and in addition places Russian strategic interests in jeopardy. Within the aftermath of the present improvement both the mannequin of Libya or Iraq could be the attainable trajectories for Syria.
Center Jap Ba’athist regimes emerged, within the second half of the century, as Arab nationalist leaders, championed the ideologies of Pan-Arabism, socialism, secularism, anti-imperialism, and anti-Zionism. Regardless of their lofty beliefs, these regimes, exemplified by Assad’s rule in Syria, devolved into deeply authoritarian techniques characterised by the centralization of energy, political repression, and a departure from their unique revolutionary aspirations.
Political oppression by the Assad regime created quite a few ethnic and sectarian fault strains that have been later exploited by the regional and extra-regional powers. The alleged Iranian support and Russin aerial cover appear to have saved the Assad regime in energy even after the so known as Arab Spring eliminated quite a few autocratic regimes throughout the Center East and North Africa (MENA) area.
Syria exemplifies the rising menace of insurgent actions to dysfunctional polities and the way they achieve nationwide legitimacy. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a Salafi-Jihadist group and a splinter group of al-Qaeda. The avowed pronouncements of HTS allude to independence from al-Qaeda’s affect, thus forsaking any territorial declare within the identify of the caliphate past Syria.
Assad’s Syria had additionally lengthy been an irritant for US and Israeli pursuits by being an important part of Iranian perfidy within the area. HTS, nevertheless, is a United Nations designated terrorist organization and can be thought of one by the European Union and the US. Regardless of this reality, America and its companions expressed jubilance over the HTS takeover, which creates room for hypothesis that the US and others covertly supported HTS regime change in Syria.
Thousands and thousands of Syrian refugees and the continued Kurdish need for independence prompted Turkish involvement within the Syrian quagmire. Ankara makes little secret of its need to neutralize the ambitions of Kurdish leaders demanding autonomy within the North of Syria. President Donald Trump described Turkey because the most important player on the Syrian chessboard after the autumn of Damascus.
Having a lot at stake in the way forward for Syria, Turkish involvement and materials help can’t be dominated out within the overthrow of the Syrian authorities beneath Assad. Kurds management 25 p.c of Syrian territory, together with a lot of the oil-rich area, whereas being lower than 10 p.c of the whole inhabitants. Kurdish administration of North and East Syria can be a robust bulwark towards the ISIS threat, and it was supported by the US prior to now. HTS’s pronouncements concerning the formation of a secular and inclusive authorities will likely be examined within the crucible of time contemplating Kurd-Turkish animosity.
Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Assad regime stood the check of quite a few crises within the Center East. The so known as Shia Cresent, together with the Houthis, offered a way of strategic depth to Iran vis-à-vis army threats within the Center East. With the axis of resistance being torn aside, Iran finds itself deprived of deterrence capabilities, within the backdrop of the autumn of Damascus. Therefore it should discover different strategic choices to attain its goals and targets.
Russia has lengthy used its strategic partnership with Damascus to venture energy throughout the MENA area by way of army and naval property. Russian airstrikes have been essential devices of subversion of the political dissent and armed wrestle towards the Syrian despot. The autumn of Assad doesn’t imply the strategic retreat for Russia. As Mohammad Al Jolani, the chief of HTS, said, “We don’t want Russia to leave.”
This assertion underscores the strategic significance of Russia in Syrian geopolitical calculus. Plainly Russia will keep within the area regardless of many analysts predicting a attainable diminishing Russian presence in Syria.
China has emerged as a credible mediator on the Center Jap political horizon after the Saudi-Iran deal. China might doubtlessly assist resolve the variations among the many warring factions inside Syria. It might doubtlessly rework the zero-sum strategic contestation in Syria. The significance of Syrian battle for China could possibly be discerned by its use of the veto eight times, on associated points, in the course of the previous decade on the United Nations Safety Council.
Syrians made historical past with their success in toppling the Assad regime, however their biggest problem lies forward, constructing a constructive future. Syria is precisely on the level of its nationwide historical past the place Iraq and Libya have been after the autumn of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, respectively.
Each nations adopted a contrasting trajectory with Libya persevering with its wrestle to finish its violent battle and construct state establishments whereas Iraq had a sequence of elections since 2005, which helped to develop mechanisms for political bargaining, notably between Shi’a, Sunni, and Kurdish factions. Syria faces comparable challenges together with the sectarian fault strains and Kurd minority.
The consociationalism mannequin for governance practiced in Iraq could finest match the social and political imperatives in Syria. Though overseas help and rescinding the sanctions might assist construct the Syrian state and society, inside reconciliation and power-sharing mechanisms might solely satiate the issues of stakeholders for lasting peace. The idiosyncratic socio-political local weather of Syria requires the restraint and political acumen on the a part of the victorious group to keep away from one other civil conflict.
HTS’s management has introduced that it could take at least four years before Syria will have a general election. Confidence within the state’s establishments should be restored and strengthened to create a viable state. Lifting sanctions and technical and humanitarian help may also help construct the Syrian state and society. However it should finally require the peaceable decision of distinction for any type of liberal authorities to achieve Syria.
Muhammad Haseeb Riaz is a Analysis Assistant at Middle for Worldwide Strategic Research (CISS), Islamabad.
