4-minute learn
Within the fragile aftermath of the 12-day struggle with Israel, the clerical dictatorship ruling Iran is lashing out in a number of instructions—internally and externally—with a technique that mixes mass repression, orchestrated paranoia, and aggressive rhetoric geared toward reshaping regional dynamics by itself phrases. Beneath the defiance lies a deeply unstable regime, burdened by navy losses, inner dissent, financial collapse, and diplomatic isolation.
On the coronary heart of the regime’s survival technique is the invocation of “espionage” as a catch-all cost—used to justify swift executions, mass arrests, and the detention of overseas nationals, in what critics describe as a calculated marketing campaign of “hostage diplomacy.” In accordance with regime’s judiciary spokesperson, Asghar Jahangir, overseas nationals—recognized solely as “European residents” allegedly linked to Israel—have been arrested in a number of provinces, accused of “collaborating with the enemy.” He added, “We’ll cope with traitors and sellouts with out leniency,” and emphasised that judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei had ordered “extraordinary” trials for crimes comparable to treason, espionage, and betrayal.
#Iran‘s Regime Tightens Grip with Harsh New Espionage Legislation https://t.co/EPfTqGQrbS
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 1, 2025
The enemy inside
This campaign on so-called spies has already claimed a number of lives. As reported by a number of sources, three Iranian Kurdish laborers had been executed inside 48 hours of the ceasefire, accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad. Human rights defenders vehemently disputed these claims. One activist informed ABC, “This can be a very corrupt regime and there’s no authorized course of in Iran. These males had no entry to categorized info, they usually had been denied truthful trials.”
The judiciary’s sudden acceleration of demise sentences is broadly seen as an try and preempt unrest. The human rights groups have reported that over 1,600 people have been arrested because the struggle started, with over 98 overseas nationals detained beneath prices starting from unlawful entry to espionage. Social media accounts and activists level to brutal remedy in custody, together with threats of collective executions. One supply described over 200 Iranians arrested for acts as minor as ‘celebrating’ or ‘strolling close to navy websites.’
In accordance with Amnesty Worldwide, these trials and executions are a part of a broader state coverage to make use of capital punishment “as a instrument of management and intimidation.”
The regime’s obsession with infiltration has prolonged to digital house. Jahangir stated courts will even goal “accounts that collaborated with the enemy,” and praised what he referred to as “public informants who reported dissidents.” Concurrently, parliament is fast-tracking legal guidelines that will classify “media cooperation” with Western shops as “corruption on Earth,” a cost punishable by demise.
#Iran Regime Shaken by Ceasefire Fallout, Worry of Unrest Mountshttps://t.co/iL8tM2lRNd
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 30, 2025
Meltdown
But even because it clamps down, the regime’s messaging reveals an unsteady hand—determined to shift blame outward, whereas exhibiting indicators of inner rupture. Key officers have acknowledged how shut the struggle got here to breaking the system.
Ali Larijani, senior adviser to the Supreme Chief, admitted on state tv: “Their plan was to eradicate the heads of the state, after which come for the management.” He stated 18 senior IRGC commanders had been killed within the opening strikes. Larijani himself claimed to have acquired a demise risk: “A person referred to as and stated I had 12 hours to depart Tehran, or I’d meet the identical destiny as [General] Shahid Baqeri.”
Overseas Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaee took intention on the West, accusing the IAEA of complicity and France of “offering Israel a pretext for aggression.” He warned: “Negotiation with such an strategy is meaningless… They have to reply for his or her position on this struggle.”
In a letter to the UN, Iranian officers demanded the Safety Council label Israel and america as initiators of struggle and maintain them financially accountable for reparations.
#Iran’s Regime Struggles to Masks Submit-Warfare Weak spot with Rhetoric and Repressionhttps://t.co/ITcBED4e0M
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 28, 2025
Aggression to cover desperation
In the meantime, different regime figures solid blame inward. Deputy Parliament Speaker Abbas Araghchi bluntly acknowledged: “We should assume a struggle footing in all sectors—protection, economic system, tradition. There isn’t a belief within the enemy.”
Esmaeil Kowsari, a senior IRGC officer and MP, told a pro-regime outlet: “We aren’t in a ceasefire. This can be a short-term halt. The struggle might resume at any second.” He went as far as to boast that Iran pre-warned the U.S. by Qatar earlier than attacking their airbase—an indication of political calculation and an eagerness to retain believable deniability on the worldwide stage.
However beneath these theatrics lies a terrified energy elite, aware of its vulnerability. As the previous intelligence interrogator turned media activist Abbas Abdi—writing within the regime-linked Etemad newspaper—put it: “What’s completely different from earlier than the struggle is our notion of the long run. Even state companies can not plan past every day survival.” He questioned the logic behind the regime’s actions: “Why was a ceasefire accepted if struggle would resume? What concepts are on the desk to stop this? The individuals have a proper to know.”
#Iran’s Regime Scrambles to Masks Defeat, Management Fallout After Ceasefirehttps://t.co/qC7wxMACAf
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 26, 2025
Multidimensional worries
The fears aren’t simply political. The Iranian rial has collapsed, breaching 90,000 to the greenback, whereas the stock market hemorrhaged practically 200,000 factors in three days. This monetary meltdown, coupled with navy losses and rising unrest, has left the regime clutching for management by any means.
That is why, observers notice, repression has grow to be not only a tactic—however the regime’s major instrument of survival. Mass executions, mass arrests, threats of collective punishment, web crackdowns, and xenophobic rhetoric all kind a wall in opposition to an explosion that officers clearly see coming.
Probably the most telling indication of this got here from Ali Agha-Mohammadi, a member of the regime’s Expediency Council, through the funeral of an IRGC commander: “Right this moment, we’re caught between two video games—certainly one of conspiracy, and the opposite of negotiation. The enemy skilled 50,000 spies over ten years. If anybody feels concern, don’t let it in. We should present mercy to 1 one other.”
It’s an uncommon enchantment to unity in a fractured system that, for many years, dominated by concern, not solidarity.
#Iran’s Regime Responds to Army Losses with Repression and Belligerencehttps://t.co/xZNoIoYUWi
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 25, 2025
Fractures resurface
Whereas regime propaganda, cyber-army trolls, and foreign-based foyer teams push the narrative that “Iranians have rallied across the flag,” the regime’s brutal crackdown within the post-war interval tells a really completely different story.
Each arrest, each execution, and each new grievance deepens the rift between a clerical dictatorship that has betrayed its personal individuals—siphoning nationwide wealth into overseas adventurism—and a society more and more suffocated and outraged. Quite than fostering inner cohesion, the struggle has accelerated the regime’s isolation each at house and overseas.
Figures like Mahmoud Sadeghi and Masoud Pezeshkian have called for “nationwide unity” and “rebuilding social capital,” however critics see this as opportunism. These similar people had been complicit—or silent—through the crackdowns of 2019 and 2022. Many Iranians consult with them as “phony reformists” in search of a lifeline because the foundations of the regime erode.
This post-war second has revealed not resilience, however systemic fragility. What stays of state energy is upheld by executions, propaganda, and the silencing of dissent. In making an attempt to cowl its navy and political failures, the regime has turned inward—on its residents, by itself commanders, and on the illusions it as soon as used to mission power.
As one activist wrote on social media: “The regime thinks it may well scare the individuals into silence once more. However this time, it’s not the identical Iran. The struggle might have ended, however the fireplace inside society has simply begun.”
