Surge in Ukrainian oil refinery attacks sparks Russian fuel shortages

Ukraine has dramatically elevated the variety of assaults launched towards Russian oil refineries in current months, sparking gas shortages and value rises in some components of the nation, BBC Confirm and BBC Russian have discovered.

Drone strikes on refineries – some deep inside Russia – soared in August and remained excessive in September, an evaluation of Russian media stories and verified footage confirmed.

Some 21 of the nation’s 38 giant refineries – the place crude oil is transformed into useable gas like petrol and diesel – have been hit since January, with profitable assaults already 48% increased than the entire of 2024.

Atypical Russians look like feeling the affect of the strikes, with verified movies exhibiting lengthy queues at petrol stations. Some garages have suspended operations to “wait out the disaster” fairly than work at a loss, one supervisor informed Russian media.

Ukraine’s safety service, the SBU, didn’t reply to a request for remark. However President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated damaging Russia’s oil trade is a key technique of forcing Russia to the negotiating desk.

“The best sanctions – those that work the quickest – are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots,” the Ukrainian chief stated in a September handle. “We’ve got considerably restricted Russia’s oil trade, and this considerably restricts the battle.”

Our evaluation exhibits reported assaults reached a file stage in August, with 14 refineries focused by Ukrainian drones, and eight in September. The rise got here after a short lull coinciding with a flurry of diplomacy, throughout which President Donald Trump tried to dealer a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

Among the strikes have been launched towards amenities deep inside Russia. In late September, the SBU efficiently hit the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery within the Bashkortostan area twice.

Satellite tv for pc photos confirmed smoke billowing from the ability – which is greater than 1,100km (683 miles) from the Ukrainian border – after the assault.

Kyiv has additionally attacked a few of Russia’s most profitable amenities. A refinery close to Volgograd has been focused six occasions this 12 months – with an assault in August forcing it to halt operations for a month. The massive Ryazan plant close to Moscow – able to producing 340,000 barrels per day – has been hit 5 occasions since January.

Ukrainian strikes look like pursuing two targets – giant refineries important to civilian provides and people nearer to the border used to produce troops preventing in Ukraine, Vladimir Milov, a former deputy power minister below Vladimir Putin and now an exiled opposition politician, informed BBC Confirm.

Ukraine’s normal employees has beforehand claimed that refineries in Samara and Saratov have been used as a part of army logistics operations. Each areas have been hit by drone strikes in current weeks, with two of the three crops in Samara area taken offline.

Justin Crump, an ex-British military officer and CEO of the danger consultancy Sibylline, informed BBC Confirm that Ukraine had lengthy focused Russia’s oil and fuel trade. However he famous that the flurry of strikes confirmed that the army and safety companies have now settled on the tactic as a “core marketing campaign”.

“This marketing campaign has clearly been the main target of great funding and is pushed by an intelligence evaluation of what is going to damage Russia probably the most,” Mr Crump stated.

It’s troublesome to measure the extent to which the strikes are impacting the output of petrol and diesel as Russia categorized statistics referring to gasoline manufacturing in Could 2024 amid an earlier spate of assaults on refineries.

However BBC Confirm’s evaluation discovered that no less than 10 oil refineries have been compelled to completely or partially droop operations since August, and the Reuters information company has reported that on sure days nationwide manufacturing has declined by as much as a fifth.

There’s some proof that the refinery strikes are having an affect on civilian life in components of Russia. Movies confirmed by BBC Confirm have proven lengthy queues at petrol stations within the far east and on a freeway between St Petersburg and Moscow, whereas Kremlin-installed officers have launched rationing of gasoline in occupied Crimea.

Homeowners of small and unbiased petrol stations in Siberia have informed Russian media they’ve needed to shut down as a result of ongoing points with gas provide. A supervisor within the Novosibirsk area in contrast the scenario to the hyperinflation skilled by post-Soviet Russia.

“In my view we’ve not had a disaster like this since 1993-1994,” he informed native outlet Precedent TV. “Many petrol stations have now suspended their operations. Maybe it’s higher to attend out the disaster than make a loss.”

Whereas Russia has historically seen value will increase spurred on by summer season travelling and oil refinery upkeep, the drone strikes are exacerbating it.

Retail petrol costs have surged, whereas wholesale costs – the price at which retailers purchase from producers – have risen even sooner, rising by 40% since January.

The tightly managed home media has hinted that drone strikes are a key issue for the shortages, with the every day enterprise newspaper Kommersant attributing the shortfall to “unscheduled refinery shutdowns”.

However civilians in western Russia – together with the Moscow and Krasnodar areas – look like largely unaffected. A few of those that spoke to the BBC stated they have been unaware of the shortages elsewhere within the nation.

Russian officers have insisted that the scenario stays below management. Throughout a press briefing this week Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated the “authorities is taking the mandatory measures” to deal with shortages.

However Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak introduced final week {that a} partial ban on petrol exports had been prolonged to the top of 2025. Opposition politician Mr Milov famous that the export suspension was comparatively small and “will not save the home market”.

The extent to which the strikes are impacting Moscow’s capacity to make use of oil revenues to fund its battle in Ukraine can also be unclear.

The overwhelming majority of Russia’s oil exports are within the type of unrefined crude oil, which don’t seem to have been impacted by the strikes. An evaluation carried out by Bloomberg on the finish of September confirmed that crude oil exports – whereas much less worthwhile than petrol and diesel – had reached a file excessive.

Mr Crump noticed that the affect of the strikes could possibly be strengthened if “additional measures” and sanctions concentrating on oil exports have been adopted by the West, however emphasised that the assaults have been undermining Moscow’s capacity to battle the battle.

“This marketing campaign alone is not going to carry Russia to its knees, however is certainly growing the ache of the protracted battle.”

Further reporting by Christine Jeavans.