Picture Supply: Pexels
Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya of 2022, Bangladesh’s “second liberation” of 2024, and the current Gen-Z protests in Nepal all underscore a broader pattern in South Asia—that the spring is right here. The protests show a phenomenon the place the youthful technology is difficult the present political tradition and toppling governments to advertise constitutional and political reforms, embrace a greater life, and tackle financial grievances. It highlights a broader dissatisfaction with the outdated elites and hollowed-out political and financial establishments. Nonetheless, the implications of this ‘spring’/wave could possibly be extra extreme than anticipated. With uncertainty looming giant, instability may hang-out the area.
Previous Political Tradition and New Generational Takeover
Since their independence, South Asian international locations have largely been dominated by the identical conventional elites. For example, two events – the United Nationwide Celebration (UNP) and Sri Lanka Freedom Celebration (SLFP) dominated Sri Lanka’s politics till the 2000s, once they have been ultimately changed by Mahinda Rajapaksa and his household for one more 15 years. In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, each daughters of former presidents, have dominated the political sphere. On its half, Nepal over the past decade alone has seen greater than seven governments fluctuating between Nepali Congress’s SB Deuba, Communist Celebration of Nepal (Marxist Leninist)’s KP Oli, and Communist Celebration of Nepal (Maoist)’s Prachanda.
In Nepal, a “sport of musical chairs” persevered the place events and leaders, unable to achieve a majority within the authorities, fashioned free coalitions to kind new governments and topple present governments.
Governments of the day had their very own methods to remain in energy. Racist politics and broadening ethnic divisions usually helped Sri Lankan governments acquire assist from the Sinhala nationalist voter base and retain energy. In Bangladesh, elections have been usually violent and rigged. In Nepal, a “game of musical chairs” persevered the place events and leaders, unable to achieve a majority within the authorities, fashioned free coalitions to kind new governments and topple present governments. This grip over energy left little room for brand new events and lively citizen participation, particularly among the many youth.
South Asia is likely one of the youngest areas on the earth. It has a median age of 28 and accounts for 30 percent of the world’s complete adolescents. The youth bulge is a essential asset to the area. Their participation in politics, job markets, the financial system, and improvement alternatives can have vital advantages for the international locations of the area. As of 2023 (see Desk 1), over 29 % of Sri Lanka’s inhabitants and 36 % of Bangladesh and Nepal’s inhabitants have been younger adults (between the ages of 15 and 35). In addition they kind a big proportion of the full workforce in these international locations, starting from 39 % in Sri Lanka to 45 % in Bangladesh and 47 % in Nepal. Graph 1 beneath reveals an in depth breakdown of the demographics of those international locations.
Desk 1. Demographics of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal
| Demographics | Sri Lanka | Bangladesh | Nepal |
| Whole Inhabitants in million | 23 | 171 | 29.7 |
| Inhabitants (15-34) in million | 6.7 | 61.3 | 10.7 |
| Age group (15-34) of the full inhabitants (in %) | 29.1% | 35.8% | 36% |
| Age group (15-34) % of the full working inhabitants | 39.4% | 45.2% | 47% |
Supply: World Health Organization (WHO) ; Authors’ compilation from World Financial institution
Graph 1. Demographics of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal (in thousands and thousands)
Supply: WHO
Financial Grievances
Nonetheless, the potential of this youthful populace stays untapped. Subsequent governments have didn’t generate employment and match the youth’s aspirations and pursuits. Actually, Desk 2 beneath demonstrates how youth unemployment considerably outweighs general unemployment in these three international locations. This disaster of youth unemployment is additional anticipated to exacerbate, with over 8.6 million folks from Nepal, 5.1 million from Sri Lanka, and 48.8 million from Bangladesh (between ages 0-14) in search of jobs and financial alternatives within the close to future (consult with Graph 1)
Desk 2. Unemployment in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal
| Nation | Whole Unemployment | Youth Unemployment |
| Sri Lanka | 5 % | 22.3% |
| Bangladesh | 4.7 % | 16.8% |
| Nepal | 10.7 % | 20.8% |
Supply: Authors’ compilation from the World Financial institution
Corruption and patronage have additionally added considerably to this dissatisfaction. Graph 2 beneath demonstrates the corruption notion rankings of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal since 2018. Regardless of some fluctuations lately, all three international locations rank above 100 out of 180 international locations, demonstrating the persistent nature of corruption. Patronage has additionally deterred folks from successfully tapping into the present alternatives—particularly in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh—the place authorities jobs and social welfare schemes have been provided to ruling events’ households, supporters, and voter base earlier than the respective unrests. Each international locations additionally witnessed misappropriation and diversion of funds, in addition to large-scale opaque tendering and procurement processes. In Bangladesh, capitalists affiliated with the federal government continued to borrow from the banks, ultimately resulting in a collapse of the banking system.
Graph 2. Corruption Notion of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal
Supply: Authors’ compilation utilizing Transparency Corruption Index (2018-2024)
Moreover, all three nations have been unable to deal with social bias in the direction of authorities jobs. There’s additionally a big hole between the non-public sector and the training system. Training has undergone little to no reforms, and the hole between required and bought expertise—in addition to youth expectations and ambitions—continues to widen. Nationalist and populist insurance policies—together with restricted financial diversification in all three international locations, resistance to overseas funding in Sri Lanka, and instability in Nepal—have largely failed to draw investments and generate employment. These elements have contributed to a mass exodus, with over 7 million Nepali residents migrating elsewhere for work (excluding India) prior to now three many years. Moreover, practically 1 million Sri Lankans have migrated for work functions simply between 2022 (here) and the primary half of 2025.
The Rupture and the Aftermath
With the youthful technology feeling more and more ignored within the political ecosystem and job alternatives, these nations have been one small incident away from a rupture. Exterior shocks triggered by COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the disruption of provide chains made the bottom much more fertile for unrest with financial challenges. Rajapaksas’ constant mismanagement of Sri Lanka’s financial system, the rise in job quota for freedom fighters (learn: Awami League) in Bangladesh, and the ban on social media apps in Nepal lastly proved to be the ultimate nail within the coffin.
The first goal was to demand structural modifications, maintain the elites and governments accountable, and create situations for a greater life.
These three protests demonstrated related traits. Decentralised and leaderless protests mobilised by civil society, college students, activists, and commerce unions. Underscoring their discontent with the political system as an entire, the protesters saved a distance from political events. The first goal was to demand structural modifications, maintain the elites and governments accountable, and create situations for a greater life. But they provided little readability on the means to boost reforms and the nation’s future path. Social media was instrumentalised/weaponised to mobilise crowds and disseminate anti-government and anti-elite narratives. As paranoid governments exercised violence, protestors gained extra sympathy, and offended crowds burned down state establishments and celebration places of work, attacked leaders of political events, and compelled the federal government to resign.
As governments weakened and a vacuum emerged, opportunists and political events infiltrated the protests, hijacked narratives, and sought legitimacy for his or her in any other case non-mainstream (generally fringe) politics and beliefs. In Sri Lanka, leftist parts, together with the now ruling and as soon as Marxist militant outfit—Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)—have been believed to be concerned within the Aragalaya. Comparable infiltrations have been seen in Bangladesh from the Bangladesh Nationwide Celebration (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), in addition to pro-monarch parts in Nepal.
Actually, Sri Lanka noticed President Anura Dissanayake of the JVP-led left coalition win elections by portraying himself as an outsider to the elite-dominated political construction. Whereas he enjoys the mandate of the folks to usher in reforms, issues relating to revenge politics persist at giant. Bangladesh has seen a extra disturbing end result. With the parliament dissolved, political events have continued to debate reforms with little consensus and legitimacy. Assaults have elevated in opposition to Awami League supporters and leaders, and minorities. The current victory of a JeI-backed organisation in a college election has additionally underscored a worrying pattern the place hardliners are filling the political vacuum. Lastly, in Nepal, an interim Prime Minister, Sushila Karki, is tasked to advertise reforms because the parliament stands dissolved.
With the parliament dissolved, political events have continued to debate reforms with little consensus and legitimacy.
Moreover, the navy in all three international locations has performed an important function within the transition course of. They exercised nice restraint when cracking down on protestors and likewise prevented bloodshed by convincing leaders to resign and taking them to secure areas. The excellent news stays their scant curiosity in interfering in home affairs; but the establishment stays comparatively empowered than earlier than, particularly in Bangladesh and Nepal, the place parliaments are dissolved.
General, the brand new governments within the area now have a big accountability to advertise reforms and supply a greater life and governance. Whereas the protests have challenged the old guard politicians and their decadent political establishments to complement democracy and high quality of life, the political vacuum is being stuffed by non-elected leaders and non-mainstream events and ideologies. In essence, uncertainty looms giant within the area. The South Asian spring may thus leap in any path – it may both blossom democracy and prosperity, or spiral into new waves of uncertainty, instability, violence, and erosion of democracy.
Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is an Affiliate Fellow on the Observer Analysis Basis.
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