After agency enlargement final yr, seaborne commerce volumes are forecast to rise by simply 0.5 per cent in 2025, the slowest tempo in years, in line with the company’s Assessment of Maritime Transport 2025, launched in Geneva.
The slowdown comes as geopolitical tensions, new commerce limitations and local weather pressures reshape transport routes, push up prices and expose vulnerabilities within the world economic system.
“The transitions forward – to zero carbon, to digital methods, to new commerce routes – should be simply transitions,” stated UNCTAD Secretary-Basic Rebeca Grynspan. “They have to empower, not exclude. They have to construct resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”
Routes in flux, prices rising
Delivery carries over 80 per cent of the world’s merchandise for export and import, making it a essential barometer of world commerce.
UNCTAD reported that rerouting attributable to crises in the Red Sea in 2024 and continuing tensions close to the Strait of Hormuz have compelled ships onto longer journeys, including delays and prices.
On the Geneva launch, Regina Asariotis, Chief of UNCTAD’s Commerce Logistics Department, warned that weak economies are paying the heaviest value:
“The worldwide atmosphere has turn into extra advanced. Geopolitical tensions are forcing pricey reroutings, tariffs are disrupting commerce flows, and freight charges are excessive and risky.
Small island creating States, least developed international locations, and web meals importing nations are probably the most weak, as a result of greater freight prices shortly translate into dearer imports and meals insecurity.”
Ports below strain
International ports are battling congestion, longer ready occasions and the strain to modernise. UNCTAD highlighted the pressing have to put money into digital methods similar to maritime single home windows and port neighborhood platforms to chop prices and delays.
However many creating international locations proceed to lag behind in digitalisation. With cyber threats on the rise, the report warns that cybersecurity has turn into a essential precedence for maritime logistics.
Local weather problem
The transport trade’s greenhouse fuel emissions rose by 5 per cent in 2024, the report stated. But solely eight per cent of the world fleet’s tonnage is at the moment geared up to make use of various fuels.
The International Maritime Organization will contemplate a Web-Zero Framework in October, together with a world gasoline normal and carbon pricing mechanism. UNCTAD says clear regulatory indicators, fleet renewal and new gasoline infrastructure are important to cut back emissions.
Human price at sea
Past commerce flows and emissions, the report confused the human toll. Seafarer abandonment instances reached a file excessive in 2024, leaving crews stranded with out pay or assist.
Amendments to the Maritime Labour Conference coming into into power in 2027 will strengthen rights to repatriation and shore go away, however UNCTAD confused that efficient enforcement is important.
Coverage priorities
The evaluation requires governments and trade to work collectively on:
- Steady commerce insurance policies to cut back uncertainty and restore confidence in provide chains;
- Funding in sustainable, inexperienced and resilient port and transport infrastructure;
- Sooner digitalisation and stronger cybersecurity;
- Fleet renewal and cleaner fuels; and
- Help for weak economies to mitigate greater prices.
“Persistent excessive transport prices threat hitting creating international locations the toughest,” Ms. Grynspan stated. “Maritime transport should be resilient, inclusive and sustainable if we’re to climate the turbulent waters forward.”
