Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, March 19, 2025
Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Daria Novikov, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter and William Runkel
March 19, 2025, 8:00pm ET
Click on here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date each day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Click on here to see ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click on here to see ISW’s 3D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (not a cell machine) is strongly really helpful for utilizing this data-heavy device.
Click on here to entry ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces each day by displaying a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive month-to-month.
Observe: The info cut-off for this product was 12:30 pm ET on March 19. ISW will cowl subsequent stories within the March 20 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation.
Russia and Ukraine haven’t formally introduced the implementation of the momentary long-range strikes ceasefire. Ceasefires take time to barter, execute, and monitor and require each side to conform to stop assaults on specified targets at a selected time and date. Ceasefires additionally require each side to conform to mechanisms to observe the ceasefire and to handle allegations of violations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 19 that if Russia and Ukraine come to a brief strikes ceasefire settlement, then Ukraine will put together an inventory of “civilian objects, power objects, infrastructure objects” to offer to Ukraine’s companions — indicating that Russia and Ukraine haven’t finalized the main points of which targets can be off limits or agreed on an implementation date.[1]
Official American, Ukrainian, and Russian statements point out that the events to the ceasefire haven’t but finalized the main points of the settlement. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on March 19 that the momentary ceasefire solely applies to “power infrastructure services,” and Kremlin newswire TASS reported that Peskov declined to touch upon the White Home assertion — possible referring to the March 18 White Home assertion following the decision between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — that the ceasefire utilized to “power and infrastructure.”[2] Trump informed the Washington Examiner on March 18 after his name with Putin that Russia agreed to “an instantaneous ceasefire on power and infrastructure.”[3] US Particular Envoy to the Center East Steve Witkoff equally said on March 18 after the decision that the momentary ceasefire covers “power and infrastructure on the whole.”[4] The Trump administration’s assertion following Trump’s March 19 name with Zelensky said that Trump and Zelensky “agreed on a partial ceasefire towards power.”[5] Zelensky said on March 19 that Ukraine is “able to implement” a ceasefire on strikes towards “power and civilian infrastructure.”[6]
Russian President Vladimir Putin is including confusion in regards to the timing and particulars of the ceasefire in an try and falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire earlier than each international locations have formally applied the settlement. The Kremlin is trying to posture Russia as already adhering to the momentary ceasefire whereas claiming that Ukraine is violating the ceasefire — despite the fact that each events haven’t agreed on the main points of the settlement or formally applied the ceasefire. The Kremlin readout of the March 18 cellphone name between Putin and Trump said that Putin “instantly gave the Russian army” an order that “corresponded” along with his “constructive response” to Trump’s momentary ceasefire proposal.[7] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that seven Russian drones have been en path to putting Ukrainian power services linked to protection industrial enterprises in Mykolaiv Oblast when Putin issued the order to the Russian army.[8] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces acquired orders to “neutralize” the drones and that Russian forces used Pantsir air protection programs to down six drones and {that a} Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) fighter jet destroyed the opposite. Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces launched a sequence of drone and missile strikes towards Ukraine on the evening of March 18 to 19, and Zelensky famous on March 19 that Russian drones had struck a hospital in Sumy Oblast and unspecified areas in Donetsk Oblast.[9] The Russian MoD claimed that Ukrainian drones struck an oil transshipment facility in Krasnodar Krai following the Trump-Putin name and tried to border the Ukrainian strike as a violation of the ceasefire settlement.[10] Russian claims that Russia adhered to the ceasefire by abstaining from conducting strikes towards Ukrainian power infrastructure and that Ukraine violated the ceasefire are inaccurate as Russia and Ukraine haven’t but formally applied the settlement. Such Russian claims are makes an attempt to reap the benefits of the dearth of readability in regards to the particulars of the ceasefire that the Kremlin is injecting. Putin’s try and confuse and manipulate the momentary strikes ceasefire and blame Ukraine for violations even earlier than the settlement has come into impact is an indicator of how Putin will possible exploit any future agreements.
The Kremlin continues to contradict Trump’s report of his name with Putin on March 18. The Kremlin readout of the decision said that Putin known as for a halt to all overseas army help to Ukraine.[11] Peskov claimed on March 19 that Putin and Trump “touched upon” the subject of continuous army help to Ukraine of their name.[12] Trump said on March 18 that he and Putin “didn’t discuss help in any respect.”[13]
The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine cede Ukrainian territory that Russia doesn’t at present occupy and to set situations to make additional territorial calls for. Russian enterprise outlet Kommersant reported on March 18 that its sources stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a personal assembly with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Congress on March 18 that Russia wouldn’t declare “Odesa and different territories” if unspecified international locations — possible Ukraine, the US and/or European international locations — acknowledge Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea as a part of Russia.[14] Putin and different Russian officers have not too long ago reiterated their ongoing demand that Ukraine give up everything of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, together with areas that Russian forces don’t at present occupy.[15] The Kremlin could have deliberately leaked Putin’s assertion to Kommersant in an try and painting Russia’s excessive calls for to grab everything of the 4 oblasts as affordable and fewer excessive than options. Putin not too long ago claimed that “Novorossiya” is an integral a part of Russia, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov outlined “Novorossiya” as all of jap and southern Ukraine — together with Odesa Oblast.[16] Putin has repeatedly referred to components of occupied Ukraine as “Novorossiya,” having most not too long ago thanked staff of the Russian Prosecutor Basic’s Workplace in “Donbas and Novorossiya” throughout a March 19 deal with to Prosecutor Basic’s Workplace’s Board.[17] Putin has additionally claimed that Odesa Metropolis is a “Russian metropolis.”[18] Putin and different senior Kremlin officers proceed to set informational situations to demand that Ukraine cede extra territory to Russia as Russian forces proceed to push in areas that Russia has not but formally demanded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 18 that Russian forces are concentrating in Kursk Oblast on the border with Sumy Oblast and could also be making ready new assaults on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[19] ISW continues to evaluate that Russia would possible leverage assaults into oblasts that Russian forces don’t at present occupy to manufacture justifications for calls for that Ukraine cede further territory to Russia.
The US, Ukraine, and Europe proceed to agree that Ukraine and Europe have to be concerned in peace negotiations to finish the battle, regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to exclude Ukraine and Europe from such negotiations. Bloomberg reported on March 18, citing individuals acquainted with the matter, that US officers informed European officers that the EU have to be concerned in any future peace settlement for the reason that Kremlin desires the EU to raise its sanctions on Russia as a part of a peace deal. The sources said that the US informed the EU that America’s first precedence is “to cease the preventing,” after which the US will talk about “potential safety preparations” for Ukraine.[20] US President Donald Trump informed the Washington Examiner on March 18 after his name with Putin that each Russia and Ukraine must conform to a “full ceasefire and a [peace] deal.”[21] Trump’s assertion rejects Putin’s requires ongoing negotiations a couple of ceasefire and future peace negotiations to happen in “bilateral mode” between the US and Russia.[22]
Ukraine and Russia carried out a prisoner of battle (POW) change on March 19. Ukraine and Russia every exchanged 175 POWs, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky introduced that Russia returned a further 22 severely wounded Ukrainian troopers.[23] Zelensky thanked the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for mediating the change.[24] The Kremlin initially introduced the POW change following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 18 name with US President Donald Trump, throughout which Putin claimed that Russia would switch a further 23 significantly wounded Ukrainian servicemembers in a “gesture of goodwill.”[25]
The Russian Ministry of Protection’s (MoD) Primary Navy-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Main Basic Apti Alaudinov, described current Russian deception ways that will quantity to acts of perfidy — a battle crime below the Geneva Conference. Alaudinov claimed in a March 19 interview with Kremlin newswire TASS that Russian forces not too long ago used blue electrical tape identification marks throughout an operation wherein Russian forces used an underground pipeline to covertly assault behind Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast and famous that Ukrainian forces additionally use blue electrical tape.[26] Alaudinov claimed that Russian forces used the blue tape with the intention to “stop the Ukrainian army from understanding what was occurring” and in order that Ukrainian forces “would suppose that their very own items have been advancing.” Alaudinov famous that Ukrainian drone operators would have “seen individuals with blue electrical tape” and would have “determined that these have been their very own items.” Alaudinov claimed that Russian forces have been trying to “create panic in [Ukrainian ranks],” permitting Russian power to “inflict most harm” whereas Ukrainian forces “have been sorting it out.” Alaudinov claimed that Russian forces “have been imagined to have blue tape for the primary 24 hours of the operation after which change it to pink [tape]” — which Russian forces use for identification marks. The Geneva Conference defines perfidy as “acts inviting the arrogance of an adversary to guide him to imagine that he’s entitled to, or is obliged to accord, safety below the principles of worldwide legislation relevant in armed battle, with intent to betray that confidence.”[27]
Key Takeaways:
- Russia and Ukraine haven’t formally introduced the implementation of the momentary long-range strikes ceasefire.
- Official American, Ukrainian, and Russian statements point out that the events to the ceasefire haven’t but finalized the main points of the settlement.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is including confusion in regards to the timing and particulars of the ceasefire in an try and falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire earlier than each international locations have formally applied the settlement.
- The Kremlin continues to contradict Trump’s report of his name with Putin on March 18.
- The Kremlin continues to demand that Ukraine cede Ukrainian territory that Russia doesn’t at present occupy and to set situations to make additional territorial calls for.
- The US, Ukraine, and Europe proceed to agree that Ukraine and Europe have to be concerned in peace negotiations to finish the battle, regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to exclude Ukraine and Europe from such negotiations.
- Ukraine and Russia carried out a prisoner of battle (POW) change on March 19.
- The Russian Ministry of Protection’s (MoD) Primary Navy-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Main Basic Apti Alaudinov, described current Russian deception ways that will quantity to acts of perfidy — a battle crime below the Geneva Conference.
- Ukrainian forces not too long ago superior in Belgorod Oblast and close to Pokrovsk, and Russian forces not too long ago superior close to Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
- Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian authorities ought to give army awards and social advantages to army instructors and Russian protection industrial base (DIB) staff.
We don’t report intimately on Russian battle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to judge and report on the results of those felony actions on the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity despite the fact that we don’t describe them in these stories.
- Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
- Russian Primary Effort — Japanese Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate principal efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 — Push Ukrainian forces again from the worldwide border with Belgorod Oblast and method to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Metropolis
- Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 — Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 — Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis
- Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
- Russian Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts
- Russian Technological Variations
- Actions in Russian-occupied areas
- Vital Exercise in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian forces continued floor operations to push Ukrainian forces from their remaining positions in Kursk Oblast on March 19.
Russian forces attacked west of Sudzha close to Gogolevka, southwest of Sudzha close to Oleshnya, south of Sudzha close to Guyevo and Gornal, and close to the worldwide border in Sumy Oblast close to Basivka on March 19.[28]
Ukraine’s Unmanned Programs Forces reported on March 18 that Ukrainian forces not too long ago destroyed three North Korean-provided Koksan self-propelled artillery system in Kursk Oblast.[29]
Ukrainian forces not too long ago superior into Belgorod Oblast, however it’s unclear if Ukrainian forces keep these positions.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on March 18 and 19 signifies that Ukrainian forces not too long ago superior south and southwest of Demidovka (alongside the worldwide border northwest of Belgorod Metropolis).[30] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces superior southwest of Grafovka (southeast of Demidovka).[31]
The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on March 18 that Russian forces efficiently repelled Ukrainian assaults close to Demidovka and Prilesye (south of Demidovka).[32] Many Russian milbloggers claimed on March 19 that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults towards Demidovka, Grafovka, and Prilesye on the evening of March 18 to 19 and on the morning of March 19.[33] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces keep positions in forest areas alongside the Sumy-Belgorod Oblast border, and a Russian insider supply claimed that Ukrainian forces superior close to Grafovka.[34]
Order of Battle: Components of the Russian fortieth Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) reportedly repelled Ukrainian assaults close to Demidovka.[35]
Russian Primary Effort — Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 — Kharkiv Oblast (Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the worldwide border with Belgorod Oblast and method to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Metropolis)
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kharkiv path on March 19 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces carried out offensive operations northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis close to Vovchansk on March 18 and 19.[36]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz “Vakha” Battalion and artillery components of the 900th Spetsnaz Regiment are reportedly working within the Kharkiv path.[37]
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 — Luhansk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kupyansk path on March 19 however didn’t make any confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces superior nearly one kilometer close to Kamyanka; as much as 400 meters alongside the Oskil River close to Dvorichna (north of Kupyansk); as much as one kilometer close to Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk); and towards Kindrashivka, Tyshchenivka, and Mala Shapkivka (all northwest of Kupyansk).[38]
Russian forces attacked northwest of Kupyansk close to Mala Shapivka, north of Kupyansk close to Dvorichna, and east of Kupyansk close to Petropavlivka on March 18 and 19.[39]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Borova path on March 19 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova close to Zahryzove and east of Borova close to Nadiya on March 18 and 19.[40] A Russian supply claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked close to Nadiya and Novoyehorivka (southeast of Borova).[41]
Order of Battle: Components of the Russian 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (third Motorized Rifle Division, twentieth Mixed Arms Military [CAA], Moscow Navy District [MMD]) and the sixteenth Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Basic Employees’s Primary Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly working within the Borova path.[42]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Lyman path on March 19 however didn’t make any confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 19 that Russian forces superior northwest of Balka Zhuravka (previously Nevske, northeast of Lyman).[43]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Lyman close to Yampolivka and towards Nove and Zelena Dolyna on March 18 and 19.[44]
The artillery reconnaissance head of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Lyman path reported on March 19 that Russian forces take a number of days to weeks to succeed in frontline positions from the close to rear as a result of Ukrainian strikes.[45]
Order of Battle: Components of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (twentieth CAA, MMD) are reportedly working within the Lyman path.[46]
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 — Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Siversk path on March 19 however didn’t make any confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces superior in a forested space west of Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk).[47]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk close to Bilohorivka and east of Siversk close to Verkhnokamyasnke on March 18 and 19.[48] Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces revealed footage on March 19 of Ukrainian forces utilizing artillery and first-person view (FPV) drone strikes to repel an no less than strengthened platoon-sized mechanized assault within the Siversk path.[49]
The commander of a Ukrainian battalion working within the Siversk path reported on March 19 that Russian forces are conducting assaults consisting of 5 to 10 personnel on bikes and buggies.[50] The commander famous that that the Russian infantry conducting the assaults not too long ago deployed to the entrance from coaching grounds and are from occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces not too long ago superior within the Chasiv Yar path.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on March 18 signifies that Russian superior alongside Marii Ulianovoi Avenue in western Chasiv Yar.[51]
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 19 that Russian forces superior as much as 500 meters west of the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar.[52]
Russian forces attacked close to Chasiv Yar itself; northwest of Chasiv Yar close to Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Markove; southeast of Chasiv Yar close to Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka; and south of Chasiv Yar close to Oleksandro-Shultyne and towards Predtechnye on March 18 and 19.[53] Ukrainian army sources posted footage on March 18 displaying Ukrainian drone strikes repelling an no less than strengthened platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault close to Kurdyumivka.[54] The Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed and broken one T-72 tank, one armored personnel service, one armored restore and restoration automobile, and one infantry preventing automobile. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked close to Chasiv Yar.[55]
Order of Battle: Components of the Russian 215th Reconnaissance Battalion (98th Airborne [VDV] Division) are reportedly working close to Chasiv Yar and drone operators of the Russian sixth Motorized Rifle Division (third Mixed Arms Military [CAA], previously 2nd Luhansk Individuals’s Republic [LNR] Military Corps [AC]) are reportedly putting Ukrainian forces close to Kostyantynivka (southwest of Chasiv Yar).[56]
Russian forces not too long ago superior within the Toretsk path.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on March 18 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago superior northeast of Druzhba (east of Toretsk), north of Toretsk, and alongside Komarova Avenue in southwestern Toretsk.[57]
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 19 that Russian forces superior close to Volynska Avenue in northern Toretsk and alongside Kvitkova Avenue in western Toretsk.[58]
Russian forces attacked close to Toretsk itself, northeast of Toretsk close to Krymske, and east of Toretsk close to Druzhba on March 18 and 19.[59]
Ukrainian and Russian forces not too long ago superior within the Pokrovsk path.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces seized central Lysivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) and superior to the outskirts of Dachenske (south of Pokrovsk).[60]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on March 16 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago superior to the southeastern outskirts of Lysivka.[61] Further geolocated footage revealed on March 18 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago superior in southern Pishchane (southwest of Pokrovsk).[62]
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of Shevchenko (south of Pokrovsk).[63]
Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Pokrovsk close to Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Oleksandropil, and Tarasivka; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Zvirove, Kotlyne, Preobrazhenka, Kotlyarivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Novoukrainka, Bohdanivka, Yasenove, and Troitske on March 18 and 19.[64] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in makes an attempt to enter Pishchane.[65] The Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces proceed makes an attempt to keep up positions on the outskirts of Shevchenko. Different Russian milbloggers claimed that fight engagements are ongoing close to Shevchenko and that Ukrainian forces are trying to interrupt via to Shevchenko’s southern outskirts.[66]
The commander of a Ukrainian drone platoon working within the Novopavlivka path (south of Pokrovsk) reported that Russian forces are altering ways and are now not conducting massive, mechanized assaults as a result of altering climate situations and elevated visibility, selecting as a substitute to maneuver in small infantry teams.[67] The commander reported that Russian forces not too long ago carried out an unsuccessful mechanized assault consisting of over 40 automobiles.
Order of Battle: Reconnaissance components of the Russian eighth Mixed Arms Military [CAA] (Southern Navy District [SMD]) are reportedly coordinating with unspecified Russian aviation property working close to Nova Poltavka (northeast of Pokrovsk).[68]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kurakhove path on March 19 however didn’t make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 19 that Ukrainian forces gained a foothold southwest of Kostyantynopil by the H-15 Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia Metropolis freeway and pushed Russian forces out of strongholds northwest of Andriivka (each east of Kurakhove).[69] The milblogger additionally claimed that Russian forces superior west of Slovyanka (northwest of Kurakhove) alongside a gully west of the T-05-15 Kostyantynopil-Pokrovsk freeway.
Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Kurakhove close to Kostyantynopil, Andriivka, and Oleksiivka on March 18 and 19.[70] A Russian milblogger claimed on March 18 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Kostyantynopil.[71]
Order of Battle: Drone components of Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Basic Employees’s Primary Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly working close to Bahatyr (northeast of Velyka Novosilka).[72]
Russian forces not too long ago superior within the Velyka Novosilka path.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on March 19 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago superior southwest of Pryvilne (east of Velyka Novosilka).[73]
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces superior two kilometers within the fields northwest of Rozdolne and seized Shevchenko (each northeast of Velyka Novosilka).[74] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that Russian forces superior 600 meters within the Rozlyv path.[75] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces not too long ago seized 12 sq. kilometers of territory on the junction between Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts (east of Velyka Novosilka).[76]
Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Velyka Novosilka towards Pryvilne and Vilne Pole and west of Velyka Novosilka towards Novopil on March 18 and 19.[77] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Velyka Novosilka close to Dniproenerhiya and northwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Vesele, and Fedorivka on March 18 and 19.[78]
Order of Battle: Components of the Russian nineteenth Radiation, Chemical, and Organic Protection Regiment (twenty ninth CAA, Japanese Navy District [EMD]) are reportedly working within the Shakhtarske (Velyka Novosilka) path.[79]
Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis (Russian goal: Keep frontline positions and safe rear areas towards Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces continued floor assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 19 however didn’t make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 19 that Russian forces superior close to Stepove and Lobkove and northeast of Nesteryanka (all northwest of Robotyne); close to Novodanylivka (north of Robotyne); and close to Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne).[80]
Russian forces attacked northwest of Robotyne close to Lobkove, Mali Shcherbaky, and Shcherbaky and towards Stepove; north of Robotyne close to Novodanylivka; and northeast of Robotyne close to Mala Tokmachka on March 18 and 19.[81]
Ukrainian Southern Protection Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported on March 19 that Russian forces working in southern Ukraine solely use armored automobiles to offer hearth assist and transport infantry to entrance line positions.[82] Voloshyn added that Russian forces solely use armored automobiles when protected by digital warfare (EW) corridors however that Russian EW corridors typically fail to guard Russian tools from Ukrainian strikes.
Russian forces attacked within the Kherson path on March 19 however didn’t advance.[83]
Ukraine’s Primary Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) posted footage on March 19 displaying current Ukrainian strikes towards Russian air protection programs, radars, and helicopters in occupied Crimea.[84] The GUR reported that Ukrainian forces struck two 48Ya6-K1 Podlet cell long-range radar programs, two 1L125 Niobiy-SV long-range radar programs, three 39H6 Kasta-2E2 cell radar programs, one 9S19M Imbir long-range radar system, one Nebo-SVU early warning/goal acquisition anti-stealth radar system, one Nebo-M radar system, one 59N6-E Protivnik-GE radar system, one Mys costal radar system, one ST-68U radar system, one 39N6 Kasta 2E2 3D surveillance radar system, one S-300VM anti-ballistic missile battery system, one S-300SV SAM air protection system, three Pantsir-S1 air protection programs, one S4236 transport tugboat, one Fyodor Uryupin tugboat, and one Mi-8 helicopter. A Russian milblogger claimed on March 19 that Ukrainian forces leveraged the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) decreased exercise and inadequate Russian defenses in occupied Crimea to strike these property.[85]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Goal: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and on the frontline)
Russian forces carried out a sequence of drone and missile strikes towards Ukraine on the evening of March 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 4 S-300 air protection missiles, and 145 Shahed and decoy drones from the instructions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[86] The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Ukrainian forces downed 72 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Odesa oblasts and that 56 decoy drones have been ”misplaced,” possible as a result of Ukrainian digital warfare (EW) interference. Official Ukrainian sources reported that Russian missiles and drones broken civilian infrastructure in Odesa, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, and Chernihiv oblasts and {that a} Russian drones struck a hospital in Sumy Oblast and a railway energy system in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[87]
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Increase fight energy with out conducting normal mobilization)
Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian authorities ought to give army awards and social advantages to army instructors and Russian protection industrial base (DIB) staff. A number of Russian milbloggers, together with a Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger, claimed on March 19 that army and technical instructors and army expertise builders ought to obtain army awards and the identical social advantages as Russian veterans of the battle in Ukraine.[88] Russian milbloggers have beforehand argued that Russian authorities ought to present the identical social advantages afforded to Russian veterans to milbloggers.[89]
Russian Technological Variations (Russian goal: Introduce technological improvements to optimize programs to be used in Ukraine)
Nothing vital to report.
Actions in Russian-occupied areas (Russian goal: Consolidate administrative management of annexed areas; forcibly combine Ukrainian residents into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance programs)
ISW isn’t publishing protection of actions in Russian-occupied areas at present.
Vital exercise in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
Nothing vital to report.
Observe: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorized materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly obtainable info, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the idea for these stories. References to all sources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.
[1] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/standing/1902412196304531701 ; https://suspilne dot media/974197-zelenskij-slova-putina-duze-rozhodatsa-z-realnistu/
[2] https://tass dot ru/politika/23443347; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031825
[3] https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/information/white-house/3351860/trump-reveals-speaking-putin-weeks/
[4] https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370214244112
[5] https://x.com/generalkellogg/standing/1902428762895217021
[6] https://suspilne dot media/974197-zelenskij-slova-putina-duze-rozhodatsa-z-realnistu/
[7] http://kremlin dot ru/occasions/president/information/76477
[8] https://t.me/mod_russia/50309
[9] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/standing/1902120683699626108; https://suspilne dot media/974197-zelenskij-slova-putina-duze-rozhodatsa-z-realnistu/ ; https://t.me/kpszsu/30949 ; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13603 ; https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/standing/1902120683699626108 ; https://t.me/UkrzalInfo/6646 ; https://suspilne dot media/973817-ukraina-gotova-na-embargo-sodo-udariv-po-energetici-armia-rf-ne-prosunulasa-vglib-sumsini-1120-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1742364005&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; https://t.me/Mykola_Kalashnyk/4754 ; https://t.me/poltavskaOVA/21644 ; https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/34397 ; https://x.com/SESU_UA/standing/1902266320277709093; https://x.com/SESU_UA/standing/1902264348598268045 ; https://suspilne dot media/973817-ukraina-gotova-na-embargo-sodo-udariv-po-energetici-armia-rf-ne-prosunulasa-vglib-sumsini-1120-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1742380300&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ;
[10] https://t.me/mod_russia/50309
[11] http://kremlin dot ru/occasions/president/information/76477
[12] https://tass dot ru/politika/23443227
[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXoAgWaCOQs
[14] https://meduza dot io/information/2025/03/19/kommersant-putin-na-zakrytoy-vstreche-s-biznesom-zayavil-chto-rf-ne-budet-pretendovat-na-odessu-i-drugie-territorii-ukrainy-esli-anneksirovannye-oblasti-priznayut-rossiyskimi ; https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/7586520
[15] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031625
[16] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16-2025
[17] http://kremlin dot ru/occasions/president/information/76484
[18] https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/14/12/2023/657acd6a9a79477cbd43f7d5 ;
[19] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/19/volodymyr-zelenskyj-pro-sytuacziyu-na-kurshhyni-nashi-vijskovi-budut-tam-poky-cze-potribno/ ; https://www.rbc dot ua/rus/information/zelenskiy-rosiya-styague-viyska-kordonu-ta-1742328636.html
[20] https://www.bloomberg.com/information/articles/2025-03-18/us-looks-to-reassure-european-allies-on-role-in-ukraine-deal
[21] https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/information/white-house/3351860/trump-reveals-speaking-putin-weeks/
[22] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031825
[23] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13606 ; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/23447399 ; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/23447551
[24] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13606
[25] http://kremlin dot ru/occasions/president/information/76477
[26] https://tass dot ru/interviews/23430605
[27] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-37
[28] https://t.me/dva_majors/67100 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/25380 ; https://t.me/ButusovPlus/18316 ; https://t.me/rybar/68942
[29] https://t.me/usf_army/481
[30] https://x.com/giK1893/standing/1902041183322324993; https://t.me/dva_majors/67069 ; https://x.com/giK1893/standing/1902041180126273674; https://x.com/Richer214469/standing/1902254804568559980; https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/22494 ; https://x.com/TuiteroMartin/standing/1902258000636559682; https://x.com/UAControlMap/standing/1902188035967459678; https://x.com/JohnH105/standing/1902176145455411369; https://t.me/warriorofnorth/6886 ; https://t.me/warriorofnorth/6885 ; https://t.me/rybar/68937
[31] https://t.me/rybar/68937
[32] https://t.me/mod_russia/50294
[33] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25585 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25572 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/25380 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62964 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/67100 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/88334 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/21920 ; https://t.me/warriorofnorth/6896 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158368 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/21824 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/21826
[34] https://t.me/rybar/68940 ; https://t.me/vchkogpu/55445
[35] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/88287 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/67078
[36]https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl
[37] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/5573
[38] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158306 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/7852 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25616
[39] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl
[40] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l
[41] https://t.me/tass_agency/306462
[42] https://t.me/notes_veterans/22561
[43] https://t.me/dva_majors/67100
[44] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl
[45] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/19/shlyah-na-nul-tryvaye-kilka-dniv-rosijski-shturmovyky-ne-mozhut-dijty-do-pozyczij-cherez-drony/
[46] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/19194
[47] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25534
[48] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/67100
[49] https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6507
[50] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/19/zayizhdzhayut-z-lysychanskyh-zavodiv-na-siverskomu-napryamku-rosiyan-kydayut-v-shturmy-prosto-z-poligoniv/
[51] https://x.com/Richer214469/standing/1902067547417276652 ; https://t.me/official24ombr/999 ; https://x.com/Richer214469/standing/1902075638233862651
[52] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25586
[53] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l ; https://t.me/wargonzo/25380 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25586
[54] https://t.me/feniksdpsu/633 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6476
[55] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25570
[56] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25570 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158398
[57] https://x.com/AudaxonX/standing/1902110223877263537; https://t.me/Khyzhak_brigade/755 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8680 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62967 ; https://x.com/AudaxonX/standing/1902109928611049604; https://t.me/Khyzhak_brigade/754 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8683 ;https://x.com/AudaxonX/standing/1902079620784255293; https://x.com/AudaxonX/standing/1902079765252612320; https://t [dot] me/c/1886009492/2468; https://x.com/AudaxonX/standing/1902116238022631901; https://x.com/AudaxonX/standing/1902116382600229263; https://t.me/c/1886009492/2471 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62981
[58] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25602
[59] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/25380 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25602 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62967
[60] https://t.me/rybar/68943
[61] https://x.com/Danspiun/standing/1902048839370002893; https://x.com/Danspiun/standing/1902051470188351804; https://t.me/moment_war/363 ; https://x.com/UAControlMap/standing/1902188052602036476
[62]https://x.com/UAControlMap/standing/1902188060986511522; https://x.com/UAControlMap/standing/1902188060986511522; https://x.com/MikiValbuena/standing/1902107112081350741; https://t.me/skala425/565; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62951
[63] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62951
[64] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62980; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62951
[65] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62951
[66] https://t.me/wargonzo/25380; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62951; https://t.me/rybar/68943
[67] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/19/okupantiv-vdayetsya-trymaty-v-killzone-na-novopavlivskomu-napryamku-tryvayut-meteozalezhni-ataky/
[68] https://t.me/nm_dnr/13566
[69] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62952; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62980
[70] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl
[71] https://t.me/voin_dv/13963
[72] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/158370
[73] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8686; https://t.me/ngu_war_for_peace/25535
[74] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62951; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62952
[75] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62952; https://t.me/voin_dv/13977
[76] https://t.me/tass_agency/306457
[77] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl
[78] https://t.me/voin_dv/13963; https://t.me/voin_dv/13977
[79] https://t.me/voin_dv/13974
[80] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25613
[81]https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0DP3KYrt3747shxJoYhe8dcbKfmiLdKwdEmfVig5nD5LTsWFGDJP2Q99XoQ1AARs4l ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl ; https://t.me/dva_majors/67100 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/25380 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25613
[82] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/19/shturmuyut-lyshe-koly-ye-korydor-na-pivdni-za-pershi-dni-vesny-vybyly-sotni-odynycz-vorozhoyi-tehniky/
[83]https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22124 ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026NER8hbPVoiRCX1mBQzu1vpC44o4KUdGCLwPeaCSiunsZpwdakgUyC21pUdHFEPkl
[84] https://gur.gov dot ua/content material/hurkit-v-krymu-pid-udarom-vorozhi-systemy-ppo-morski-sudna-ta-helikopter.html ; https://mil.in dot ua/uk/information/drony-gur-zavdaly-masovanogo-udaru-po-rosijskym-rls-ta-zrk-u-krymu/
[85] https://t.me/milinfolive/144419
[86] https://t.me/kpszsu/30949
[87] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13603 ; https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/standing/1902120683699626108; https://t.me/UkrzalInfo/6646; https://suspilne dot media/973817-ukraina-gotova-na-embargo-sodo-udariv-po-energetici-armia-rf-ne-prosunulasa-vglib-sumsini-1120-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1742364005&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/20231; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/39787; https://t.me/Mykola_Kalashnyk/4754; https://t.me/poltavskaOVA/21644; https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/34397; https://x.com/SESU_UA/standing/1902266320277709093; https://x.com/SESU_UA/standing/1902264348598268045; https://t.me/kpszsu/30949
[88] https://t.me/rybar/68956 ; https://t.me/KaskadNerv/3479 ; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/19195 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/22861
[89] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-6-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13-2023
