Putin will not accept Ukraine ceasefire deal, expert predicts
‘Putin’s Playbook’ writer Rebekah Koffler joined ‘Fox & Associates First’ to debate why she believes Putin’s ‘in precept’ approval of the ceasefire just isn’t genuine and what a leaked doc might reveal about Putin’s long-term plan in Ukraine.
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President Trump’s particular envoy Steve Witkfoff visited Moscow to satisfy with Russian President Vladimir Putin to debate Trump’s proposed ceasefire in Ukraine on Thursday. Whereas the White Home has but to touch upon the assembly, Russian media reported that it had taken place late Thursday and that Putin had despatched a “message” to Trump through Witkoff.
Throughout a Thursday press convention, Putin thanked Trump for his efforts to finish the battle in Ukraine and stated that he was “for” the concept however that “there are nuances.” In a seven-minute-30-second speech, the Russian strongman outlined a listing of points related to concluding a 30-day ceasefire, together with difficulties with verifying potential violations. Earlier than Putin’s deal with, presidential support Yuri Ushakov, talking on Russian nationwide TV, had dominated out a short lived ceasefire, calling it “some steps imitating peaceable actions.” Putin indicated that he needed to have a cellphone name with President Trump.
Zelenskyy slammed Putin for being “very manipulative” and accused Putin of “really getting ready a refusal.” Late final month, Trump slammed Zelenskyy for declaring that the peace deal was “very distant,” calling it “the worst assertion” and saying, “America is not going to put up with it for for much longer!”
TRUMP’S ART OF WAR: WIN WITHOUT FIGHTING
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks throughout a joint information convention with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko following their talks on the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, March 13, 2025. (AP Picture/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
However Zelenskyy is right – peace in Ukraine is a good distance off. Putin is extremely unlikely to just accept President Trump’s present peace plan. Right here’s why.
Well-known for his tireless work ethic, Trump calls for that his employees accomplish issues at file speeds, or “in Trump time,” as Peter Navarro, the president’s senior advisor and principal architect of Trump’s tariff doctrine known as it in his best-selling e book, with the identical title.
It’s comprehensible that Trump needs to maintain his marketing campaign promise and cease the bloodshed on the Eurasian landmass shortly.
Vladimir Putin, left, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, proper (Reuters/AP)
However with all due respect to President Trump and his accomplishments, the Russia-Ukraine state of affairs is extraordinarily complicated. Russia has a really totally different strategic tradition from Western tradition. And Putin is a completely totally different type of animal from anybody Trump has handled earlier than. Russian pondering, and its relationship with time, are epitomized in a well-known saying: “The extra slowly you go, the farther you’ll get.”
First, as Trump stated, accurately, through the press convention, Putin “has all of the playing cards.” And Vladmir Putin just isn’t in a rush. He needs to finish the conflict however solely on his phrases, which, if accepted by the U.S., would humiliate Washington.
On March sixth, Putin publicly dominated out making any concessions on Ukraine. “We don’t want something that belongs to others, however we is not going to hand over what’s ours,” he stated in a speech broadcast on Russian nationwide TV.
Putin believes he can name the pictures. Unconscionable Russian (and Ukrainian) losses however, Russia is able to dragging this conflict out for years. Certainly, Putin has been growing his technique ever since he grew to become president, 1 / 4 of a century in the past. He transitioned his army and financial system on a wartime footing and sanction-proofed Russia seven years previous to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It’s why the Russians largely dismissed Trump’s risk of “large-scale” sanctions. “To talk with Russia from the place of energy and to threaten with sanctions is a street to nowhere,” stated State Duma Consultant from the Crimea Area Yuri Nesterenko.
Extra sanctions are extremely unlikely to vary Putin’s determination calculus. They haven’t up to now, even though Washington has been attempting to choke Moscow for a decade. The severity of U.S. sanctions on Russia tops the sanctions positioned on Hitler’s Germany throughout World Conflict II. The Russians imagine there may be nothing Trump can do to prime Biden’s sanctions.
On this picture offered by the Nationwide Police of Ukraine, firefighters work to extinguish a fireplace after a Russian assault on an residence constructing space within the city of Uman, 200 kilometres (125 miles) south of Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, April 28, 2023. (Nationwide Police of Ukraine through AP)
To neutralize the impact of future U.S. sanctions, Putin de-dollarized Russia’s overseas trade reserves, beefed up the Sovereign Wealth Fund to an all-time-high, and launched an import-substitution program to spur indigenous manufacturing, minimizing Russia’s reliance on imports. Moscow additionally stood up a shadow tanker fleet to proceed oil exports, clandestinely.
Second, Ushakov’s rejection of Trump’s proposal of a short lived ceasefire isn’t a surprise. Putin has indicated a number of occasions {that a} short-term break in preventing was out of the query as he doesn’t need to give a strategic pause to Ukraine, Europe or the U.S., to rearm. In June, talking on the Ministry of International Affairs, Putin stated that short-term peace “is not going to work for Moscow, as adversaries will use the freezing of the battle to replenish Ukraine’s fight losses and deficit in armaments.”
Certainly, Russia, being on a wartime footing, now produces extra weapons in three months than all the NATO alliance in a single 12 months, in line with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Putin additionally elevated Russia’s armed forces above the constitutionally allowable measurement, to make sure that Russia can combat until the final Ukrainian.
A convoy of pro-Russian troops strikes alongside a street in Mariupol, Ukraine, in April 2022. (Reuters/Chingis Kondarov)
Ukraine is outmanned, outgunned and missing correct war-fighting capabilities, emboldening Putin to proceed what he began, aiming for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
Third, there’s a sequence of authorized impediments that Moscow and Kyiv should resolve earlier than any deal will be signed. Neither has proven any indicators of willingness to resolve them. Even once they agree to take action, it should take time. Issues in Ukraine and Russia don’t occur in Trump time.
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Putin dominated out negotiating with Zelenskyy, having advised state Rossiya 1 TV that “he [Zelenskyy] has no proper to signal something,” having known as the Ukrainian chief “illegitimate.” Certainly, Zelenskyy’s presidential time period expired in Could.
The Ukrainian parliament, on the finish of February, rebuffed U.S. requires elections by passing a decision that dominated out elections throughout wartime, citing martial legislation, in compliance with the Ukrainian structure. On February fifth, Zelenskyy approved the extension of martial legislation till Could ninth.
President Donald Trump, proper, meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy within the Oval Workplace on the White Home on Friday, Feb. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Picture/ Mystyslav Chernov)
Furthermore, in October 2022, Zelenskyy prohibited negotiations with Putin by a presidential decree, having declared that Ukraine would negotiate solely with “one other president of Russia.” Even when the authorized quagmire is resolved, organizing and holding elections will take time.
If a peace plan for Ukraine is to be achieved, it should virtually actually not be achieved in Trump time, however extra probably in Putin time.
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There’s no disgrace if Trump fails to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conundrum, in Trump time. The disgrace is on Biden and Obama, whose careless insurance policies introduced Russia and Ukraine to one another’s throats. Trump inherited a big geopolitical mess, which was years within the making.
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