May this be the primary time in historical past a social media spat triggers nuclear escalation?
President Donald Trump, offended by posts by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, says he is ordered two nuclear submarines to maneuver nearer to Russia.
So, how will Moscow reply? Are we on a path to a nuclear standoff between America and Russia? A web-age model of the 1962 Cuban Missile Disaster?
I doubt it, judging by preliminary response in Russia.
Russian information retailers have been reasonably dismissive of Trump’s announcement.
Talking to the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper, a army commentator concluded that Trump was “throwing a mood tantrum”.
A retired lieutenant-general advised Kommersant that the US president’s discuss of submarines was “meaningless blather. It is how he will get his kicks”.
“I am certain Trump did not actually give any orders [about submarines],” a Russian safety professional steered to the identical paper.
Kommersant additionally mentions that in 2017, Trump mentioned that he’d despatched two nuclear submarines to the Korean peninsula as a warning to North Korea.
But not lengthy after, Trump held a gathering with North Korean chief Kim Jong Un.
So, bizarrely, may Donald Trump’s newest submarine deployment be a precursor to a US-Russia summit?
I would not go that far.
However the response from the Russian authorities has been fascinating.
At time of writing, there hasn’t been any.
Not from the Kremlin. Not from the Russian international ministry. Nor the defence ministry.
And I’ve seen no announcement about Russian nuclear submarines being positioned nearer to America.
Which means that both Moscow continues to be finding out the scenario and figuring out what to do, or that Moscow does not really feel the necessity to react.
The Russian press response I discussed earlier suggests it is the latter.
Trump had been sparring with Medvedev on social media for a number of days.
After the US president had lowered his 50-day deadline for Russia to finish its battle in Ukraine to lower than two weeks, Medvedev posted that Trump was “enjoying the ultimatum recreation with Russia…Every new ultimatum is a menace and a step in the direction of battle”.
Trump responded: “Inform Medvedev, the failed former Russian president who thinks he’s nonetheless in energy, to watch out what he says. He’s getting into very harmful territory.”
Medvedev’s subsequent submit contained a reference to “Useless Hand”, the automated nuclear retaliation system developed within the Soviet Union.
Clearly, that didn’t go down properly with the White Home chief.
When he was Russia’s president, between 2008 and 2012, Medvedev was seen as a comparatively liberal determine.
“Freedom is healthier than no freedom” he was famously quoted as saying.
However he has grown more and more hawkish. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine he has gained a popularity for bombastic, anti-Western social media posts. Most of them have handed unnoticed, since he isn’t considered because the voice of the Kremlin.
Instantly he has been seen: by the President of the US.
And never simply seen. He is received proper below Trump’s pores and skin.
It is one factor to dislike a social media submit. We have all been there.
However to dislike it a lot you deploy nuclear submarines appears like overkill.
So why has Trump carried out it?
This is Trump’s personal rationalization from his interview with Newsmax: “Medvedev mentioned some issues which are very unhealthy, speaking about nuclear. While you point out the phrase nuclear my eyes mild up and I say we higher watch out, as a result of it is the last word menace.”
However Medvedev has lengthy been accused of nuclear sabre-rattling by way of social media. It is nothing new.
What is evident is that Trump took the latest Medvedev posts very personally, and reacted accordingly.
May there even be a technique at play? Unpredictability appears like a giant a part of Trump’s manner of doing issues, in enterprise and in politics; taking surprising choices that may put rivals and opponents off stability earlier than talks or throughout a negotiation.
On ending the battle in Ukraine, for instance.
Shock submarine deployments might properly fall into that class.
