Putin Believes Russia Is Winning the War in Ukraine. The Battlefield Picture Tells a Different Story.

The prospect of a brief ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, not to mention a negotiated finish to the struggle, stays elusive after the second spherical of direct talks in Istanbul on Monday.

As a substitute, the Kremlin is demanding sweeping territorial, navy and geopolitical concessions from Ukraine and the West whereas persevering with to escalate its offensive alongside the entrance traces. And reviews point out that President Vladimir Putin believes he’s profitable.

By persevering with to interact diplomatically with out halting navy operations, Moscow can declare it’s prepared for peace whereas utilizing the battlefield as leverage.

However greater than three years since invading Ukraine, does Russia actually have the assets to wage struggle for so long as it takes?

The Moscow Instances seems on the present scenario on the bottom:

Ukrainian navy analyst Ivan Stupak stated he believes Russian officers are bluffing once they say the nation can hold preventing for a few years.

“Nobody can combat for a few years. Russia has a number of assets and lots of people, nevertheless it additionally has its limits,” Stupak, an adviser to Ukraine’s nationwide safety committee, informed The Moscow Instances.

Russian forces have stepped up their offensive in northeastern and japanese Ukraine in current weeks following Putin’s name to create a “buffer zone” alongside the Russia-Ukraine border, capturing villages within the Sumy area, advancing in Kharkiv and pushing to encircle the strategic metropolis of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. 

The Russian navy averaged almost 184 assaults per day in Could, a 19% enhance over April, the Ukrainian open-source intelligence group Deep State reported.

Based on BBC Russian Service navy analyst Pavel Aksyonov, Russia is concentrating forces to strike at weak factors in Ukraine’s defenses and break by.

“The Russian military goals to exhaust Ukrainian forces and forestall them from sending reinforcements to vital areas. However capturing town of Sumy is unlikely. They don’t have sufficient power,” Aksyonov informed The Moscow Instances.

Stupak famous that Ukraine’s navy is extra susceptible following extended preventing in Russia’s Kursk area, which it withdrew from earlier this 12 months after launching a daring cross-border incursion final summer time. 

“Throughout the Kursk operation, we took heavy losses of each manpower and tools. We redeployed many models there, together with from the Donetsk area. Now the entrance in Donetsk is sagging, and Russia is taking benefit. They’re now attempting to encircle Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka and are transferring extra forces there,” Stupak stated, noting that the entrance is holding for now.

Regardless of these advances, Western and Ukrainian analysts warning that Russia’s good points is probably not sustainable. The Kremlin is reportedly grappling with vital tools losses and rising logistical pressure. 

A Pentagon intelligence report cited by The Washington Put up estimated that Russia has misplaced over 10,000 navy automobiles, 3,000 tanks and a few 250 plane because the struggle started. 

The Soviet-era stockpiles of armored automobiles are almost exhausted, and present tank manufacturing, round 200 per 12 months, is unlikely to replenish these losses anytime quickly.

There are additionally indicators of pressure on the battlefield. 

Russian troopers are more and more attacking in civilian automobiles, together with, as one video circulating on Russian Telegram channels exhibits, a Porsche Cayenne SUV. These automobiles typically destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

Regardless of its heavy troop casualties, Russia has managed to maintain its manpower by aggressive recruitment campaigns and by shifting its ways. 

Based on navy analysts, Moscow has considerably ramped up drone manufacturing and is relying closely on low-cost, high-volume assaults to probe weak factors in Ukrainian defenses.

“They’re concentrating forces, deploying drones en masse and focusing on Ukrainian logistics earlier than pushing ahead,” stated Aksyonov.

Nonetheless, he stated, Russia is unlikely to attain a breakthrough that might decisively flip the tide of the struggle with its present assets.

Based on present estimates, it could take Russia as much as three years at its present tempo to seize all of Donetsk alone. Taking the remaining areas, analysts say, would require far better time, assets and bloodshed.

For the Kremlin, nonetheless, ideological and political components outweigh navy logic. 

“Russia could also be low on assets, however that doesn’t change their will to wage struggle,” stated Pavel Luzin, a Russian navy professional. “For the Russian authorities, it’s a matter of survival and legitimacy. Russia desperately wants a pause within the preventing, however it could’t politically afford one. Ukraine isn’t asking for peace at any value.”

Luzin stated Russia is hoping that point and fatigue will work in its favor. If Western navy and monetary assist for Ukraine collapses, or if home strain mounts on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to hunt peace, Russia may achieve the higher hand on the negotiating desk.

However whereas U.S. navy assist has certainly slowed, European nations have continued to again Kyiv. And Ukraine is ramping up its personal protection trade, more and more producing weapons domestically, Aksyonov stated.

“All these large assaults on civilians hold taking place as a result of the Kremlin is probably going ready for Ukrainians to tire of the struggle and strain Zelensky to simply accept peace at any value. However that hasn’t occurred,” stated Stupak.