Guesses about who would be the subsequent Roman Catholic pope typically show inaccurate. Earlier than the number of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers had not even counted him among the many front-runners.
This time, predictions are additional sophisticated as a result of Francis made many appointments in a comparatively brief period of time throughout his tenure, diversifying the Faculty of Cardinals and making it tougher to determine actions and factions throughout the group.
Nonetheless, dialogue of potential names started way back behind the Vatican’s partitions, and observers are predicting a number of prospects.
Some are seen as prone to construct on Francis’ progressive agenda, whereas others would symbolize a return to a extra conventional type. Consultants additionally recommend that the Faculty may favor a prelate with expertise within the complexities of worldwide relations.
Listed here are among the contenders.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, an Italian who’s the Vatican’s prime official for Center East affairs, is taken into account a potential front-runner. Though he turned a cardinal solely in 2023, his expertise in one of many world’s most heated battle zones helped him rise to prominence.
Cardinal Pizzaballa can be the primary Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978, however specialists say he’s additionally thought of a global determine and faraway from Vatican politics, having spent a lot of his profession in Jerusalem.
He has additionally usually steered away from polemics about doctrine, which specialists say might assist him safe the mandatory two-thirds majority within the Faculty of Cardinals, though some suppose he could also be thought of too younger for the function.
Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, has been Pope Francis’ second-in-command since 2013, when Francis made him secretary of state. In that function, the cardinal is in control of overseeing inner church affairs and guiding overseas coverage.
A soft-spoken Italian and mild-mannered centrist, Cardinal Parolin is deeply aware of the Curia, the church’s central administration, in addition to of the Vatican’s huge worldwide community, having served for over 20 years as a diplomat and below secretary on the Vatican-based physique that oversees its worldwide relations.
Fluent in English, French, Italian and Spanish, he has spoken at worldwide conferences on the Israeli-Palestinian battle, local weather change and human trafficking.
He’s additionally an professional on Asia, and Vatican watchers contemplate him the mastermind of the progress the Vatican has made lately on constructing relations with China and Vietnam.
Fridolin Ambongo
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been thought of a potential contender since Francis made him a cardinal in 2019.
Pope Francis had lengthy urged the Catholic Church to “go to the peripheries,” which means communities in Africa and Asia, the place the church is also essentially the most vibrant. One persistent query has been when the church may reinforce that dedication by selecting a pope from Africa. Catholics make up about 18 p.c of the inhabitants of the continent and generate extra seminarians than every other a part of the world.
Pope Francis, an Argentine, was the primary non-European to guide the church since 741. Even so, Francis was from a household with Italian roots.
But there’s a sure paradox concerned in selecting any successor from Africa. Whereas it could be a break from custom, the Catholic hierarchy in Africa is among the many most conservative.
Cardinal Ambongo has been near Pope Francis, one in all simply 9 members of an advisory group generally known as the Council of Cardinals. However the cardinal led the opposition to Francis’ 2023 ruling that the church ought to bless gay {couples}.
Luis Antonio Tagle
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, a liberal-leaning cardinal from the Philippines whom commentators have dubbed the “Asian Francis,” has for years been deemed a front-runner to be pope.
He was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012 and can be the primary Asian pope.
An ally of Francis, the customarily smiling Cardinal Tagle goes by the nickname “Chito.” His extremely personable strategy is in keeping with Francis’ consideration to the poor and people in want in creating international locations, the place he has lived and labored.
He accompanied Francis or helped put together for his journeys to Asia, together with a grueling 11-day tour of Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the summertime of 2024.
He additionally comes from a area of the world the place Catholicism nonetheless performs a outstanding function, and the place Francis paid particular attention in trying to build a church with a less Eurocentric future.
Cardinal Tagle was broadly thought of probably the most promising candidates within the 2013 conclave however appeared too younger for the job on the time.
Cardinal Tagle has handled among the church’s most divisive points, just like the inclusion of homosexual individuals and whether or not to offer communion to divorced and remarried Catholics.
He served as president of the church’s international gathering on the family in 2014, and of a common meeting on the identical subject the next yr, wherein prelates agreed on a extra inclusive strategy by the church, though they remained against same-sex marriage.
Matteo Zuppi
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi of Italy, 69, stands out among the many contenders who replicate Francis’ view that the church needs to be consultant of and help the poor.
Francis promoted the progressive native of Bologna to the rank of cardinal in 2019 and assigned him a number of necessary missions. Some specialists speculate that Francis would have probably favored him as his successor, though the pope by no means weighed in publicly on the matter.
Cardinal Zuppi is carefully tied to Sant’Egidio, a Catholic group identified for its service to the poor and battle decision.
Vatican watchers say the group turned an more and more necessary foyer below Francis, and specialists suspect that the cardinal’s closeness to the highly effective group might assist him acquire votes. However that hyperlink has additionally raised considerations that, if elected pope, he can be overly influenced by the group.
In 2015, Francis named him archbishop of Bologna, probably the most necessary posts in Italy. There, “Don Matteo,” as he’s identified, continued to work with poor individuals and migrants. “Welcoming migrants is a historic problem for Europe,” he has mentioned. “Christ invitations us to not flip away.”
And lately Francis appointed Cardinal Zuppi to the important thing function of envoy for Ukraine issues.
He has additionally been welcoming to L.G.B.T. Catholics, writing the preface for the Italian version of the Rev. James Martin’s 2017 e-book, “Constructing a Bridge,” which referred to as for the church to search out new pastoral methods of ministering to homosexual individuals.
Peter Erdo
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, 72, an professional on canon regulation, is anticipated to be a front-runner amongst cardinals who lengthy for a return to the conservatism of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
John Paul II named the cleric archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest in 2002, and the next yr gave him a cardinal hat, making him — at 50 — the youngest cardinal on the time.
Cardinal Erdo is taken into account an astute diplomat, in a position to construct bridges with Catholics in Latin America and Africa and good at reaching out to different non secular teams. He has incessantly attended Holocaust memorials, and Jewish leaders say his help has been essential at a time of the rise of the far proper and rising anti-Semitism in Hungary.
He’s identified to lots of his Western counterparts, having served from 2006 to 2016 as president of the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe. He has additionally written a number of books, and speaks or understands English, French, German, Italian, Russian and Spanish, giving him linguistic prowess to serve a world flock.
He has spoken out towards permitting divorced Catholics to obtain communion and towards taking in migrants.
In a 2019 book-length interview with Robert Moynihan, the founder and editor of Contained in the Vatican journal, Cardinal Erdo spoke of a have to “guard the flame” of conventional Christian religion in an more and more secular world.
Anders Arborelius
Bishop Anders Arborelius of Stockholm, 75, who transformed to Catholicism at age 20, is Sweden’s first Catholic cardinal.
Though Sweden was as soon as predominantly Lutheran and is now largely secular, it’s one in all few European international locations the place the Roman Catholic Church has grown in recent years. Francis’ elevation of the cardinal in 2017 was seen as one other try to succeed in out to international locations the place Catholics symbolize a minority.
In a current interview, Cardinal Arborelius mentioned the largest challenges dealing with the Church had been constructing bridges in a polarized world, giving larger affect to girls throughout the Church, and serving to households cross on the religion.
He additionally warned of political currents doubtlessly dividing the Church. “It may be a hazard in some elements of the church that you just get divided on varied points,” he mentioned. “We should always not type events throughout the Catholic Church.”
Cardinal Arborelius, a former Carmelite monk, has — like Francis — expressed help for migrants. However he voiced opposition to blessing same-sex {couples}. In 2006, he mentioned {that a} resolution by the Lutheran Swedish Church to permit such blessings would make dialogue between it and the Roman Catholic Church harder.
