Some right-leaning voters who oppose Donald Trump are pondering of voting neither for him nor Kamala Harris.
I perceive how they really feel. In 2016, I published an article urging By no means Trump conservatives to contemplate casting their poll for a third-party candidate. Within the election that 12 months, I did simply that.
I remorse writing that column. I remorse casting that vote.
To individuals like me, Trump represented a repudiation of everything that Ronald Reagan stood for. However as a conservative and former GOP staffer who had by no means voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, I harbored reservations about Hillary Clinton.
Voting for neither Trump nor Clinton gave the impression to be a “secure” technique to categorical disapproval of each. Most polls at the time confirmed her on observe to win comfortably. It appeared cheap to argue {that a} important tally for a third-party candidate would possibly verify her liberal ambitions. In spite of everything, the variety of votes for Unbiased candidate Ross Perot in 1992 might have nudged Invoice Clinton to just accept greater funds cuts than he wished.
However the 2016 election didn’t go in keeping with expectations. Regardless of dropping the nationwide common vote, Trump squeaked into workplace by edging out Hillary Clinton in key states the place polls had been means off the mark.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gained 3% of the nationwide vote, a high-water mark for that get together. An exit poll requested his supporters whom they’d select in a two-person race. Although many stated they’d abstain, extra picked Clinton than Trump.
We’ll by no means know whether or not Trump would have misplaced if extra such voters had switched to Clinton. We do know what occurred as a result of he gained. He blew up the federal debt. His incompetent dealing with of COVID-19 caused tens of thousands of needless deaths. He completed his time period by attempting to overturn an election he misplaced and instigating a violent rise up in opposition to the federal government he had sworn to guard.
Trump turned out to be a disaster for our nation. Hillary Clinton simply was a candidate with whom I disagreed, I want I had voted for her and inspired others to do the identical.
The subsequent president of the US might be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, not anyone else. The election will nearly definitely be shut. We don’t have the luxurious of voting third get together or writing within the identify of a fantasy candidate. (In most states, those write-ins won’t even count.)
At present, many states are seemingly to provide a lopsided margin to 1 candidate or the opposite. For instance, California will most likely go for Harris and West Virginia for Trump. Voters in such states would possibly assume it’s OK to skip the election or vote for someone who can’t win, pondering: “What the heck, it gained’t make any distinction within the electoral rely, proper?”
That angle is incorrect in two methods.
First, “seemingly” doesn’t imply “sure.” As we’ve got already seen, the polls can err. By no means Trump of us don’t need to get up on the day after the election to seek out that their wasted votes have helped him rating a slender upset of their state.
Second, the favored vote issues. Underneath any circumstance, Trump will nearly definitely refuse to just accept defeat. But when he loses massive within the common vote, in addition to dropping the electoral vote, it will likely be more durable for him to say that he’s the individuals’s selection. The bigger the margin, the weaker his declare.
For us By no means Trumpers, as for everyone else, the 2024 election is a binary selection.
For those who abstain or vote for someone aside from Kamala Harris, you successfully vote for Trump. Take into account the implications for our nation. Don’t do one thing you’ll remorse.
John J. Pitney Jr. is a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna School. From 1989-91, he was deputy director of analysis on the Republican Nationwide Committee.
