I anticipate Trump’s second time period to be more practical than the primary, and thus extra harmful. If Trump orders the navy to assist with mass deportations or to crack down on protesters, Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth will surely not defy him. Company America, and particularly Large Tech, is totally onboard in a manner they weren’t earlier than. It makes me loopy when Trump apologists level out how typically he was thwarted in his first time period to argue that we shouldn’t take all his loopy threats critically, when all of the individuals who thwarted him are gone.
That stated, there’s a reasonably broad vary of dangerous outcomes we could possibly be dealing with. There are some real ideological variations between the populist nationalists, like Steve Bannon, and the tech oligarchs, like Elon Musk, so there might be some unpredictable coverage fights about issues like H-1B visas. We don’t but know what the stability between Large Tech feudalism and the politics of protectionism and rabid provincialism goes to appear like.
Douthat: You must by no means underestimate the Republican capability to only do “deregulation and tax cuts” in response to any political eventuality. We’ve got a really completely different combination of forces in Trump’s orbit this time, from the rather more fleshed-out populism of his vice chairman to the brand new entrants into conservative politics, Musk and the remainder of the so-called tech proper. However Musk appears to have drunk deep from the elixirs of Paul Ryanism on budgetary issues, congressional Republicans are nonetheless congressional Republicans, and so there might be … deregulation and tax cuts, or the extension of the final spherical of Trump tax cuts, on the very least. (Whether or not Musk can magically make deep spending cuts occur as properly — there one needs to be skeptical.)
On different fronts, although, the modified panorama issues. Trump has extra room to conduct mass deportations not simply because company America and Large Tech are extra on his aspect, but additionally as a result of the Biden administration presided over such a unprecedented run-up in unlawful immigration that deportations are extra well-liked than up to now, and there are lots of people who arrived very not too long ago, who don’t have deep ties to their communities, who’re believable targets for such an effort. That doesn’t imply his administration received’t overreach and reap a backlash — it’s completely doable. However the final 4 years have shifted the politics of immigration additional to the best than the place it was after Trump’s final victory.
Goldberg: I agree with Ross that deregulation and tax cuts will possible be the central accomplishment, if you wish to name it that, of the brand new administration. It’s fascinating to me that, after all of the speak about Trump dethroning Paul Ryanism, his motion is now full of individuals dreaming about much more aggressive types of financial austerity.
