Key occasions
Ella Creamer
Doris Lessing’s notorious response to profitable the Nobel in 2007 is all the time value a rewatch …
Philip Oltermann
Attempting to detect patterns into the record of previous Nobel laureates could also be a fools’ recreation, and but it could be a shock if this yr’s winner is a girl. Whereas the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has emphatically rejected the thought of gender quotas, for the final 10 years it has in actual fact been fairly cautious to realize parity, with 5 male and 5 feminine winners since 2015. Ever since 2018, it has gone about reaching this in probably the most failsafe method, by alternating between feminine and male authors. And after Han Kang in 2024, that might imply it’s a person’s flip once more at the moment.
What about geography? The Literature Nobel has historically been a Eurocentric prize, with the continent (when you exclude Russia) offering 91 out of 121 laureates, and extra prizes going to Sweden itself than to all of Asia and Latin America. In an ever-more globalised world, this has been a bone of competition, and it could be tempting this yr to nod to the literary achievements of corners of the world which have gone underappreciated prior to now, corresponding to India, Mexico or Australia (all of which have solely notched up one prize every).
The Academy has by no means been shy to clarify how a lot it values formidable and troublesome prose over common fiction. However within the mid-2010s it went by means of an fascinating experimental section: as a part of this exploratory amble alongside the road between excessive and low literature, it gave prizes to a journalist (Svetlana Alexievich), a singer-songwriter (Bob Dylan) and a novelist identified for fantasy and science (if literary) fiction (Kazuo Ishiguro).
The impression that the literature Nobel is especially for writers over 70 will not be actually based in actual fact. At 54, Han was the youngest laureature since Orhan Pamuk, who was the identical age in 2006 – although none of them as younger as Rudyard Kipling, who obtained it aged 41 in 1907. The typical age to obtain the prize is the sprightly age of 65.
Ella Creamer
Toni Morrison – one of the highly effective storytellers of our time – grew to become the primary African American girl to obtain a #NobelPrize when she was awarded the literature prize in 1993.
Who will observe in her footsteps? Later at the moment, we are going to announce the 2025 Nobel Prize in… pic.twitter.com/JCxkaqnbIv
— The Nobel Prize (@NobelPrize) October 9, 2025
Potential winners: László Krasznahorkai
Emma Loffhagen
One of many frontrunners is László Krasznahorkai, the Hungarian novelist whose demanding, visionary prose has earned him a faithful worldwide following.
Born in Gyula, Hungary, in 1954, Krasznahorkai first made his mark along with his 1985 debut novel Sátántangó, a bleak and mesmerising portrayal of a collapsing rural group. The novel would go on to win the Finest Translated Ebook award in English practically three many years later, in 2013.
Usually described as postmodern, Krasznahorkai is thought for his lengthy, winding sentences, dystopian and melancholic themes, and the form of relentless depth that has led critics to check him to Gogol, Melville and Kafka. Sátántangó was famously tailored into a seven-hour film by director Béla Tarr, with whom Krasznahorkai has had an extended inventive partnership.
Krasznahorkai’s profession has been formed by journey as a lot as by language. He first left Communist Hungary in 1987, spending a yr in West Berlin for a fellowship, and later drew inspiration from East Asia – notably Mongolia and China – for works corresponding to The Prisoner of Urga, and Destruction and Sorrow Beneath the Heavens.
Whereas engaged on Conflict and Conflict, he travelled extensively throughout Europe and lived for a time in Allen Ginsberg’s New York condominium, describing the legendary Beat poet’s help as essential to finishing the novel.
His admirers are formidable: Susan Sontag referred to as him “the up to date Hungarian grasp of apocalypse,” whereas WG Sebald praised the universality of his imaginative and prescient. In 2015, Krasznahorkai grew to become the primary Hungarian author to win the Man Booker Worldwide prize.
Who do publishing insiders have their cash on?
Philip Oltermann
Ladbrokes has Chinese language experimentalist Can Xue and Hungary’s melancholy grasp László Krasznahorkai as favourites to win the prize, adopted by common Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami. However when you discuss to folks within the publishing trade, you’ll additionally hear a couple of names that aren’t driving excessive with the bookies, corresponding to Swiss Popliteratur novelist Christian Kracht, whose Eurotrash was longlisted for the Worldwide Booker this yr. Australian novelist Gerald Murnane has been a perennial bookies’ favorite, but when the prize goes to Down Below, some recommend it’s extra prone to be awarded to Aboriginal author Alexis Wright as an alternative.
Peruvian author Mario Vargas Llosa was the final Latin American laureate in 2010, which has introduced Argentinian author César Aira and Mexican Cristina Rivera Garza into the body. Writing in Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet, literary editor Rasmus Landström places his cash on this yr’s winner carrying a Hungarian passport: Krasznahorkai or his countryman Péter Nádas. “Each have lengthy been sitting on the Nobel pile”, Landström writes. “They each write pretty ‘conventional’ modernist prose and could be categorised as ‘witness literature’. Secure decisions, after all – and a bit boring.”
How the Nobel prize in literature is chosen
Emma Loffhagen
Each October, the announcement of the Nobel prize in literature sends ripples by means of the literary world — however how does the Swedish Academy really select a winner?
It begins months earlier, when the Nobel committee, made up of a small group of writers, sends out nomination kinds to a choose community of people and organisations. These invited to appoint embody:
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Members of the 18-person Swedish Academy, in addition to related literary academies around the globe
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Professors of literature and linguistics at universities and faculties
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Earlier Nobel laureates in literature
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Presidents of nationwide authors’ societies representing their international locations’ literary manufacturing
As soon as nominations are available, the committee filters and refines the record, narrowing it first to fifteen–20 names, after which to a last shortlist of 5.
Over the next months, Academy members learn the nominees’ works in depth. In September, they maintain their annual discussions and debates. Lastly, in early October, the Academy gathers to vote.
To be awarded the Nobel prize in literature, a candidate should obtain greater than half of the votes solid. The result’s stored strictly confidential till the official announcement – one of the anticipated moments within the world literary calendar.
Bookies’ favourites: Can Xue and Krasznahorkai tied on the prime
Emma Loffhagen
Because the 2025 Nobel prize in literature approaches, betting markets are pointing to a decent race. Chinese language avant garde author Can Xue and Hungarian novelist László Krasznahorkai are at the moment joint favourites, each with 10/1 odds.
Can Xue, age 72, stays a perennial contender – she was additionally closely tipped final yr – and her experimental, boundary-pushing fashion has stored her within the highlight. Krasznahorkai, aged 71, is likewise gaining traction, along with his dystopian, melancholic novels having fun with latest translation awards.
Haruki Murakami is shut behind, with 14/1 odds, putting him third within the betting rankings.
Subsequent in line at 16/1 odds are a set of revered names: Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Gerald Murnane, Mircea Cărtărescu and Thomas Pynchon.
Additional down, authors together with Lyudmila Ulitskaya (18/1), Ersi Sotiropoulos, Margaret Atwood (one other yearly favorite), Michel Houellebecq, Péter Nádas, Pierre Michon, and Salman Rushdie are additionally within the combine at 20/1 odds.
A Ladbrokes spokesperson, Alex Apati, commented: “The chances recommend the race for this yr’s Nobel literature prize is wide-open as issues stand.”
Keep in mind: the winner might be introduced at the moment at midday BST, and can obtain 11 million Swedish kronor (round £870,000).
Ella Creamer
Emma Loffhagen
Final yr’s Nobel Prize in literature went to Han Kang, the South Korean novelist celebrated for her lyrical, unsettling explorations of violence, reminiscence and the human physique.
Born in Gwangju, South Korea, in 1970, Han first gained worldwide prominence with The Vegetarian, a haunting novel a couple of girl’s quiet rebel in opposition to social expectations. The e book gained the Man Booker Worldwide prize in 2016, making Han the primary Korean writer to obtain the award.
Her work is commonly described as poetic, exact and quietly devastating, combining spare prose with searing emotional depth. Themes of trauma, collective reminiscence and the seek for dignity within the face of brutality run by means of a lot of her writing, formed partially by the legacy of South Korea’s turbulent political historical past.
Han grew up in Gwangju, the location of the 1980 Gwangju Rebellion, an occasion that might profoundly affect her later work. In Human Acts, she turned to this historical past immediately, crafting a devastating portrait of the aftermath of state violence by means of a number of interwoven voices.
Through the years, she has explored grief, language and id in works corresponding to The White Ebook and Greek Classes, with the latter shortlisted for the Worldwide Booker prize in 2023.
Han’s Nobel win in 2024 was largely surprising – the bookies had her at 30/1 – however extensively celebrated as a landmark second for Korean literature on the world stage. The Swedish Academy praised her “delicate, elliptical narratives that illuminate the delicate dignity of the person amid collective trauma.”
Learn an interview with Han here.
Opening abstract
Ella Creamer
Welcome to the Guardian’s protection of the Nobel prize in literature.
The most important day within the e book world’s calendar has arrived: at the moment, the subsequent Nobel laureate in literature might be introduced.
Might it’s Can Xue, the Chinese language avant garde writer who has been the bookies’ favorite a number of years working? Or maybe Haruki Murakami, Margaret Atwood or Salman Rushdie, whose names are sometimes within the mixture of attainable contenders? Or will it’s somebody completely surprising?
All might be revealed at 12pm BST (1pm CEST) on the Swedish Academy in Stockholm. Be part of Emma Loffhagen, Philip Oltermann and me over the subsequent hour as we share updates, trivia and hypothesis in regards to the prize.
