As if the 50% tariff imposed by the US was not debilitating sufficient, Indian shrimp exporters are observing a further levy—a possible anti-dumping obligation of as a lot as 40%.
Mint appears on the implications of those measures on exporters and the 16 million folks depending on the seafood sector, and whether or not India can diversify its export markets quick sufficient to outlive this shock.
What has hit Indian shrimp exporters?
US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50% duty on Indian exports has pulled the rug from below the ft of Indian shrimp exporters. In any case, the US accounted for 52% of India’s complete shrimp exports of $5.2 billion in 2024-25. In truth, India meets 40% of the US’ complete shrimp demand.
There may be extra unhealthy information. Two Republican senators have launched the ‘Indian Shrimp Act’, which, if accredited, seeks to impose as much as 40% anti-dumping obligation on Indian exporters for dumping shrimp within the US at a predatory worth.
What are the current tariff ranges like?
Presently, Indian shrimps are topic to a tariff of 58.26%. This features a reciprocal tariff of 25%, a penalty of 25% for India buying Russian oil, the prevailing anti-dumping obligation of two.49% and a countervailing obligation of 5.77%. The tariff proposed below the shrimp act will probably be along with the prevailing duties.
How has the sector been impacted?
At 58% tariff ranges, Indian exports are too expensive and uncompetitive. Consequently, orders from the US, India’s largest export market, have stopped. Crisil Rankings anticipate an 18% to twenty% fall in exports (in worth phrases) to the US in 2025-26. It estimates a pointy fall in margins and earnings of exporters, particularly those that have a big publicity to the US market.
Share costs of firms like Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen Meals and Zeal Aqua have already taken a beating. This improvement additionally impacts the 16 million folks, farmers and others, depending on the sector. Many are planning to exit shrimp farming.
What assist does the sector want?
Consultants say that the instant precedence is to forestall a collapse in shrimp manufacturing. The Indian shrimp sector includes hundreds of thousands of small farmers and lots of micro, small and medium processing models that provide to the exporters. With US offtake collapsing, exporters have sharply lowered offtake and minimize costs.
Consequently, the chance of farmers shifting out of rising shrimp is actual. It’s already taking place in components of Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for 78% of India’s shrimp cultivation. To thwart this, there may be an pressing want for a monetary package deal that features mortgage rollover, liquidity assist and credit score assure.
What extra will be carried out?
The worldwide shrimp market is predicted to develop from $69 billion in 2023 to $91 billion in 2029. You will need to diversify the export markets.
At present, the US accounts for over 50% of the export share adopted by China, European Union, South East Asia and Japan. Fast efforts are being made to export extra to non-US markets reminiscent of European Union, Japan and West Asia. China is one market exporters are focusing on in an enormous means, regardless of decrease margins.
Based on Crisil, the UK, China and Russia can soak up about 20% of the displaced US volumes. The diversification technique has gained urgency ever because the introduction of the ‘Indian Shrimp Act’. The exporters are praying that India and the US will conclude their bilateral commerce settlement, which, they hope, may drop the tariffs to 10% ranges.
Who has gained at India’s expense?
Ecuador, which has a tariff of simply 15%, is an enormous beneficiary. So do Vietnam and Thailand, which undergo a tariff of lower than 30% on exports to the US. That they’re geographically nearer to the US is an added freight benefit. Exporters in Ecuador, media reviews counsel, are keenly observing the commerce negotiations between India and the US. If the excessive tariffs stay for lengthy, they may begin increasing the capability to feed the US market. For now, China is their largest export market.
