Loads of congrats all the best way round, as Home Republicans defied standard knowledge final night time and handed a ‘one massive lovely invoice’ funds decision – together with, importantly, the Trump tax cuts.
Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Chief Steve Scalise defied Beltway knowledge, and in addition Senate Republican knowledge, by getting a invoice via shortly.
Funds Chair Jodey Arrington deserves a number of credit score for having written the invoice. President Donald Trump will get some credit score for making a few key cellphone calls. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gets credit for shepherding the invoice via the Home.
Curiously, not a single Home Democrat voted for the invoice, which suggests your complete Home Democratic convention favors a $4 trillion plus tax hike.
Good going! Virtually ensures their minority standing – for fairly a while.
So now the Home and Senate should get collectively, and hammer out a compromise – and a bunch known as the ‘Massive 6’ began a gathering on reconciliation right now.
That group contains the tax-writing chairs Mike Crapo within the Senate and Jason Smith within the Home, the 2 leaders, Senator John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson, and President Trump’s representatives, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Nationwide Financial Council Director Kevin Hassett.
One key level is whether or not all of the Trump tax cuts, each 1.0 from 2017 and a couple of.0 from the marketing campaign final yr, can be made everlasting.
Earlier right now, I spoke to a Senate Republican chief who would love all of the tax cuts made everlasting, and he believes most of his conferees agree.
Whether or not they’ll conform to Mike Crapo’s present coverage baseline and internet out to a impartial deficit impression stays to be seen. However I feel the absolute best final result is Crapo’s present coverage baseline strategy, and making all of the tax cuts everlasting.
Additionally noteworthy is whether or not DOGE funds cuts, DOGE dividend checks, and DOGE debt discount can be a part of the general bundle. After which absolutely there can be numerous budget-cutting applications that can get modified across the edges, together with the President’s crackdown on fraud.
However this is the important thing level: Speaker Mike Johnson’s Home victory ties collectively all of President Trump’s coverage requests.
Decrease taxes. Lower spending. Fewer rules. Extra power manufacturing. Robust border management. And a powerful nationwide protection.
And the Home will now proceed to drive the method.
One massive lovely invoice is what Mr. Trump at all times needed.
One other level to think about is that that is basically a pro-growth coverage combine that can fatten the wallets of the working-class coalition put collectively by Mr. Trump throughout his extremely profitable 2024 marketing campaign.
And with Mike Johnson’s nice victory final night time, this complete funds bundle might conceivably be concluded by Memorial Day, which might be a world report.
Not solely will Mr. Trump have the ability to tout ‘guarantees made, guarantees saved’ – however his early-term high-velocity Presidential management might assure Republican majorities within the off-year 2026 election, as properly.
I imagine, as my first boss Ronald Reagan used to argue, that good economics results in good politics.
The Gipper positive had a profitable time of it.
Appears like Mr. Trump is following the identical path of financial and political abundance.
