Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, Johanna Moore, Nidal Morrison, Nicholas Carl, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter
Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
The Vital Threats Challenge (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Examine of Struggle (ISW) might be publishing a number of updates over the subsequent 24 hours from June 12-13, 2025, to offer insights into the continued strike on Iran’s nuclear amenities, army infrastructure, and key army and nuclear program management. We’ll proceed to provide Iran Replace particular editions till the strikes conclude. We’ll prioritize protecting Iranian and Iranian-sponsored actions in response to the assaults that threaten US forces and pursuits.
CTP-ISW will resume our protection of the Israeli strikes on Iran tomorrow, June 14, 2025. We’ll produce two updates. The primary will cowl occasions between 2:00 PM ET on June 13 and 6:00 AM ET on June 14. The second replace will cowl occasions between 6:01 AM ET and 6:00 PM ET on June 14. We’ll proceed to provide two updates per day whereas situations warrant it.
Key Takeaways
- Israel launched an air marketing campaign concentrating on the Iranian nuclear program and regime management on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and take away [the] menace” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program. The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a weekslong air marketing campaign, in accordance with a number of Israeli officers. Will probably be tough to evaluate the success or failure of the Israeli air marketing campaign based mostly on these targets on this early stage.
- Israel’s strikes supposed to impose discrete army results on Iran that made it tough for Iran to reply shortly. These results included the suppression of Iranian air defenses, the degradation of Iran’s capacity to retaliate in opposition to Israel, and the disruption of Iranian command and management. Israel’s capacity to generate at the very least a few of these results has contributed to Israel’s speedy success and set situations for Israel to proceed and broaden the marketing campaign as wanted.
- Israel has focused Iranian nuclear infrastructure on June 12 and 13 in an effort to cripple Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities. Israel struck enrichment capabilities at Natanz, nuclear amenities in Esfahan. There are unverified experiences of strikes at or close to Fordow, presumably concentrating on air protection techniques.
- The IDF additionally focused a number of Iranian army targets, together with a significant missile base in Kermanshah Province.
- The IDF focused distinguished members of the Iranian nuclear analysis community. Israel killed 5 senior Iranian nuclear scientists from Shahid Beheshti College on June 12 and 13.
- Unspecified Iranian sources instructed a New York Occasions journalist that Israeli strikes killed IRGC Quds Power Commander Brigadier Common Esmail Ghaani.
- Iran has changed its slain commanders with different high-ranking officers with lengthy data of service to the regime.
- Iran carried out a two-wave ballistic missile assault concentrating on Israel from Iranian territory about 18 hours after the preliminary Israeli strikes. This retaliation appears to have had restricted to no impact presently.
- Iran’s companions and proxies within the Axis of Resistance—excluding the Houthis—launched generic statements condemning the Israeli strikes and haven’t but modified their conduct towards Israel. The events gave no indication that they’d intervene on behalf of Iran, reflecting how weakened they’re after years of combating Israel. The Houthis are the one Axis accomplice that has focused Israel after the strikes.
- US President Donald Trump warned that “much more brutal” assaults on Iran will comply with if Iran doesn’t decide to a nuclear cope with the US. Iran subsequently introduced that it has withdrawn from the US-Iran nuclear talks.
- The US Navy deployed the USS Thomas Hudner to the japanese Mediterranean, presumably to help Israeli ballistic missile defenses.
Israel launched an air marketing campaign concentrating on the Iranian nuclear program and regime management on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and take away [the] menace” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program.[1] The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a weekslong air marketing campaign, in accordance with a number of Israeli officers.[2] Will probably be tough to evaluate the success or failure of the Israeli air marketing campaign based mostly on these targets on this early stage. The Israel Protection Forces (IDF) declassified an Israeli intelligence report on June 12 that argued that Iran was approaching a “level of no return” in its capacity to weaponize its nuclear program.[3] The intelligence report, which cited the Might 31 Worldwide Atomic Power Company complete report, argued that Iran’s fast enrichment of uranium would allow it to shortly weaponize and produce a number of nuclear weapons.[4] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on June 12 that the strikes are a part of a marketing campaign to “roll-back the Iranian menace to Israel’s survival.”[5] It isn’t instantly clear at what level Israel would decide that Iran’s nuclear program now not poses a menace to its survival. An air marketing campaign designed to trigger important injury to Iran’s nuclear program will nonetheless be a prolonged endeavor, as public statements by senior Israeli officers and feedback by unspecified Israeli officers recommend.[6] An unspecified senior Israeli official cited by the Wall Road Journal on June 13 acknowledged that Israel’s air marketing campaign concentrating on Iranian nuclear and army targets is meant to drive Iran into negotiations or incapacitate it.[7] An operation to drive Iran to barter may very well be a lot much less intensive than an operation to incapacitate Iran, for instance.
Israel’s strikes supposed to impose discrete army results on Iran that made it tough for Iran to reply shortly. The strikes have focused air defenses and missile websites in addition to key leaders. These strikes look like imposing three results on the Iranian army:
- Suppressing Iranian air defenses. Reviews point out that Israel has struck some key parts of Iranian air protection techniques, together with an early-warning radar on the Khatam ol Anbia Western Air Protection Zone in Hamadan Province.[8] Different strikes could have hit the air protection base accountable for defending the nuclear facility at Fordow.[9] Strikes that destroy parts of Iran’s air protection techniques will trigger a short lived disruption to Iranian defenses that may allow Israeli 4th-generation, non-stealthy plane to function in Iranian airspace with better ease.
- Degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities. Israeli airstrikes and drones have struck quite a few Iranian ballistic missile silos and launchers. These strikes could have destroyed a few of Iran’s missiles, launchers, and missile stockpiles, which might restrict Iran’s capacity to right away retaliate in a significant approach.[10] Iran claimed on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “speedy counterstrike” in opposition to Israel that may contain lots of of ballistic missiles, however could have solely been capable of enact a part of its plan attributable to degraded capabilities.[11] CTP-ISW is at present monitoring a large-scale Iranian missile assault concentrating on Israel, which can recommend that the degradation of Iran’s retaliatory functionality had solely a restricted temporal impact (see beneath below “Iranian Retaliation”).
- Disrupting Iranian command-and-control. Israel has carried out a decapitation marketing campaign concentrating on Iranian army management.[12] This disruption is non permanent and restricted, nevertheless. Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei has already appointed successors for a majority of the army management that killed.[13] Iran has presumably already drafted a plan for retaliation that these successors can undertake. The successors could have issue implementing the retaliation plan, nevertheless, given the losses incurred from Israeli strikes concentrating on Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
These constraints have contributed to Israel’s speedy success and set situations for Israel to proceed and broaden the marketing campaign as wanted. Israeli strikes on nuclear amenities serve Israel’s long-term goal of eradicating the Iranian nuclear menace and defending Israel.
Israel has focused Iranian nuclear infrastructure on June 12 and 13 in an effort to cripple Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities. Israel struck a number of amenities on the Natanz Enrichment Advanced. Satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed that Israeli airstrikes destroyed the Pilot Gas Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz.[14] The PFEP housed over 1,700 superior centrifuges, together with IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges, to provide 60 % enriched uranium. Satellite tv for pc imagery additionally confirmed that the strike broken electrical substations and assist buildings vital to the facility provide throughout the power. Worldwide Atomic Power Company (IAEA) Director Common Rafael Grossi confirmed on June 13 {that a} strike hit the Natanz website however stated IAEA monitoring and Iranian experiences confirmed ”no elevated radiation ranges.“[15] A senior Israeli official instructed Israeli media that Israel dealt a “extreme blow” to Natanz however didn’t destroy it, and “there might be extra strikes.”[16] That is in keeping with CTP-ISW’s remark that these strikes are solely the preliminary volley in an air marketing campaign.
Israel additionally struck nuclear amenities on the Esfahan Nuclear Know-how Heart (ENTC) in Esfahan Province, together with a metallic uranium manufacturing facility and infrastructure for re-converting enriched uranium to provide nuclear gasoline.[17] The ENTC homes a number of different nuclear amenities, together with a Uranium Conversion Facility, Gas Manufacturing Plant, and Gas Fabrication Laboratory, in addition to reactors.
There are unverified experiences claiming Israel focused Fordow Gas Enrichment.[18] The Fordow website is very hardened in opposition to strikes, as a lot of the power extends deep underground.
Iranian media reported on June 13 that an Israeli strike killed one Artesh colonel and one soldier on the Hazrat-e Masoumeh air protection website in Qom Province, which protects the nuclear facility at Fordow.[19] It stays unclear whether or not the colonel commanded the air protection website. The air protection website, often known as the Fordow Air Protection Group, sits roughly 16 km east of the Fordow Gas Enrichment Plant (FFEP).[20] Khatam ol Anbia Air Protection Commander Brigadier Common Alireza Sabahi Fard beforehand inspected the location on April 16 to evaluate operational readiness.[21]
The IDF focused a number of Iranian army targets, together with a significant missile base in Kermanshah Province. Satellite tv for pc imagery reveals that Israeli airstrikes destroyed a facility that Iran probably used to retailer ballistic missiles.[22] The bottom reportedly helps missile deployments in western Iran and shops ballistic missiles, together with the Qiam-1.[23] Iranian media reported that the IDF additionally focused the Artesh Air Power 2nd Tactical Airbase in Tabriz and different unspecified army websites in East Azerbaijan Province.[24]
IRGC-affiliated media additionally confirmed on June 13 that the IDF focused the next areas:[25]
- Israeli strikes focused a number of areas in Tehran Province, with explosions heard within the neighborhoods of Robat Karim, Baharestan, Malard, and Shahr-e Rey in Tehran Metropolis.
- Iranian air protection techniques activated over Andimeshk and Dezful (Khuzestan Province), Esfahan, Pakdasht (Tehran Province), and Qom.
- Iranian officers confirmed that strikes passed off in Bostan Abad and Maragheh (East Azerbaijan Province) and in Zanjan Province. Iranian officers confirmed injury to Tabriz Airbase and Madani Airport.
- Explosions had been reported in Buin Zahra (Ghazvin Province) and Mohammad Shahr (Alborz Province).
The IDF focused distinguished members of the Iranian nuclear analysis community. Israel killed 5 senior Iranian nuclear scientists from Shahid Beheshti College on June 12 and 13.[26] Shahid Beheshti College, which is positioned in Tehran, performs a big position in Iranian nuclear analysis. The USA and the European Union have sanctioned Shahid Beheshti College for its connections to the Iranian nuclear program.[27] Iranian media confirmed that the IDF killed the next people:[28]
- Fereydoon Abbasi: Iranian nuclear scientist and former head of the Atomic Power Group of Iran (AEOI).
- Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi: Professor of physics and former Amad Challenge supervisor. The Amad Challenge was Iran’s nuclear weapons program previous to 2003.
- Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari: Nuclear engineering professor on the Shahid Beheshti College
- Abdol Hamid Minouchehr: Dean of the Shahid Beheshti College nuclear school.
- Amir Hossein Feghhi: Head of the Nuclear Science and Know-how Analysis Heart, which operates below the AEOI.[29]
Unspecified Iranian sources instructed a New York Occasions journalist that Israeli strikes killed IRGC Quds Power Commander Brigadier Common Esmail Ghaani.[30] Ghaani took the place after the US killed his predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad in January 2020. Ghaani was accountable for managing and supporting the Axis of Resistance. See the “Iranian Response to Israeli Strikes” part for biographies of the commanders who will substitute the useless Iranian officers.
The Israeli air marketing campaign will probably proceed within the coming days. An unspecified senior Israeli official instructed the Wall Road Journal that Israel deliberate for the marketing campaign to happen over 14 days.[31]
Iranian Retaliation
Iran carried out a two-wave ballistic missile assault concentrating on Israel from Iranian territory about 18 hours after the preliminary Israeli strikes.[32] The IRGC introduced that it focused dozens of Israeli army websites and airbases.[33] Iran launched lower than 100 ballistic missiles at Israel through the assault, in accordance with the IDF.[34] Israeli air defenses reportedly intercepted the vast majority of the Iranian missiles that crossed into Israeli territory.[35] A senior US official and an Israeli official stated that US THAAD techniques intercepted a few of the missiles.[36] At the very least seven missiles or Israeli interceptors impacted in Tel Aviv.[37] A fireplace additionally broke out in northern Israel attributable to fallen missile fragments.[38] Israeli emergency providers reported that the assaults have injured at the very least 35 folks as of this writing.[39] Sources could misread details about this assault. Social media customers posted footage that confirmed dozens of shiny streaks within the sky through the October 2024 Iranian ballistic missile assault on Israel and claimed that every one the streaks had been ballistic missiles, for instance. It later emerged that a few of the streaks had been ballistic missile interceptors, not missiles. Iranian state media is incentivized to magnify the success of the assault and will unfold deceptive info.[40]
That is the third direct assault that Iran has ever carried out on Israel. The IRGC named the assault “Operation True Promise III” and declared that the assault was in retaliation for the current Israeli strikes on Iranian territory.[41] Iran carried out Operation True Promise I and Operation True Promise II in opposition to Israel in April and October 2024, respectively.[42] Iran initially responded to the current Israeli air marketing campaign by launching over 100 drones at Israel from Iran about six hours after the preliminary Israeli strikes.[43] Not one of the drones entered Israeli airspace, nevertheless.[44] CTP-ISW will publish additional evaluation about Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel in future updates.
Iranian Response to the Israeli Strikes
Iranian Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei gave an especially uncommon, televised tackle throughout which he vowed to retaliate in opposition to Israel.[45] Khamenei stated that Iran will reply with drive and make Israel “helpless.” The Iranian Supreme Nationwide Safety Council beforehand acknowledged on June 9 that Iran would strike Israeli nuclear amenities in retaliation.[46]
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held a telephone name with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which marks Pezeshkian’s first name with a international chief since Israel launched its air marketing campaign.[47] The Iranian readout claimed that Pezeshkian and Putin condemned the Israeli strikes. It’s notable that Pezeshkian’s first name was to Putin and illustrates the shut and rising relationship between Iran and Russia.
As CTP-ISW already reported, Khamenei has appointed new leaders to exchange a few of the senior officers whom Israel has killed.[48] The next is a short description of the promoted people.
Abdol Rahim Mousavi is a profession Artesh officer and was the general Artesh commander earlier than Khamenei appointed him as Armed Forces Common Employees (AFGS) chief. His appointment marks the primary time within the historical past of the Islamic Republic that an Artesh officer has held this place; Khamenei has normally chosen IRGC officers for the submit. Nonetheless, Mousavi is a good choice for 2 causes. He has some expertise managing and coordinating between the armed forces at this degree, as he was the AFGS deputy chief from 2016 to 2017. Moreover, Mousavi is deeply ideological, regardless of being an Artesh member, having declared repeatedly in recent times that he would have served within the IRGC’s paramilitary Basij if he weren’t already within the Artesh.[49] Khamenei has thus empowered a reliable and deeply loyal officer to handle the Iranian armed forces. Khamenei beforehand entrusted Mousavi with managing the Iranian built-in air protection community in 2019, additional highlighting the belief that Khamenei has in him.[50]
Mohammad Pak Pour was the commander of the IRGC Floor Forces earlier than Khamenei appointed him to be the general IRGC commander. Khamenei appears to have important confidence in Pak Pour, provided that Khamenei has stored him because the IRGC Floor Forces commander since 2009. Throughout this time, Pak Pour oversaw the deployment of IRGC Floor Forces cadres to Syria to assist the hassle to maintain Bashar al Assad in energy.[51] These cadres mirrored the rising Iranian deal with expeditionary operations and coalition warfare with the Axis of Resistance and Russia. Pak Pour additionally commanded the IRGC Floor Forces by means of intense intervals of social unrest in Iran. The IRGC Floor Forces deployed in some circumstances to brutally suppress anti-regime demonstrations.[52] That Pak Pour stored his place by means of this unrest is much more outstanding when contemplating that Khamenei has changed just about each different main official accountable for inside safety in recent times.
Ali Shadmani was the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters coordination deputy earlier than Khamenei appointed him to command the headquarters. Coordination deputies in Iran are roughly equal to a chief of employees within the US army. Shadmani spent his profession commanding completely different models within the IRGC Floor Forces earlier than going to the headquarters. CTP-ISW beforehand recognized Shadmani as a rising determine within the army institution, as influential army figures appeared to favor and empower him.[53]
It stays unclear on the time of this writing who will substitute IRGC Aerospace Power Commander Brigadier Common Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh and IRGC Quds Power Commander Brigadier Common Esmail Ghaani.
Axis of Resistance Response to Israeli Strikes
Iran’s companions and proxies within the Axis of Resistance—excluding the Houthis—launched generic statements condemning the Israeli strikes and haven’t but modified their conduct towards Israel. The events gave no indication that they’d intervene on behalf of Iran, reflecting how weakened they’re after years of combating Israel. Hamas condemned the Israeli strikes, stating that the strikes name for “a unified stance from the nation and its important forces within the face of this harmful aggression.“[54] A number of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias condemned the strikes and acknowledged that “Iraq could not stay inactive” if the battle escalates.[55]
An unspecified Hezbollah official instructed Western media that Hezbollah “is not going to unilaterally launch an assault on Israel in assist of Tehran.”[56] Hezbollah issued an announcement condemning the Israeli strikes and expressing its “full solidarity” with Iran.[57] Hezbollah’s choice to not assist Iran and its relative impotence within the face of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear amenities display how Hezbollah was defeated and deterred by Israel after the November 2024 Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire settlement.[58] Hezbollah would have naturally led an Axis-wide response to a possible US or Israeli strike on Iran prior to now. The defeats that Israel has imposed upon the Axis of Resistance since 2023 seem to have enabled the strikes in opposition to the Iranian army and nuclear websites.
The Houthis’ Political Bureau acknowledged that it stands with Iran “in its reputable proper to answer the aggression in opposition to it.”[59] The Houthis are the one Axis of Resistance member that has focused Israel since Israel’s air marketing campaign. The Political Bureau known as on the Muslim world “to emerge from the state of silence and inaction” as Israel “threatens everybody and excludes nobody.”[60] The IDF reported that Israeli air protection techniques detected a missile launched from Yemen on June 13 at 12:32 ET that fell within the Hebron space of Israel.[61] The Houthis have usually struck Israel with drones and missiles since November 2024.[62] Houthis haven’t confirmed or commented on this launch on the time of writing. The Houthis lately threatened to renew assaults concentrating on US pursuits following a possible US or Israeli assault on Iran.[63] CTP-ISW has noticed that the Houthis retain the power to renew their assaults on worldwide transport or US targets at any time and for any cause.
US Response to Israeli Strikes
US President Donald Trump warned that “much more brutal” assaults on Iran will comply with if Iran doesn’t decide to a nuclear cope with the US.[64] Iran subsequently introduced that it has withdrawn from the US-Iran nuclear talks.[65] Trump famous on social media that the Israeli strikes passed off at some point after the expiration of his 60-day ultimatum to Iran to conform to a nuclear deal.[66] Trump stated Iran now has a “second probability” to decide to a deal and that he hopes that Iran will return to the “negotiating desk.”[67] An unspecified US official stated that US Particular Envoy to the Center East and lead US negotiator Steve Witkoff nonetheless needs to satisfy Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 15 for the beforehand scheduled sixth spherical of talks.[68] Iranian state media introduced on June 13 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are suspended indefinitely.[69]
Senior Iranian officers had continued to sign within the days main as much as the Israeli strike that Iran supposed to reject the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated newspaper acknowledged on June 11 that Iran is “prepared to go away the negotiating desk” if Iran’s calls for are usually not met. These calls for are a reference to Iran’s demand to keep up home uranium enrichment capabilities.[70] Iran had signaled curiosity in current days in an interim cope with the US, presumably as a result of Iran calculated that reaching an interim or framework cope with the US on the assembly would delay or stop US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Such a calculation could have undoubtedly modified in gentle of Israel’s strikes.
Unspecified US officers instructed the Related Press that the US Navy ordered the USS Thomas Hudner destroyer to deploy to the japanese Mediterranean Sea.[71] The Navy additionally ordered a second unspecified destroyer to maneuver towards the Center East. Western media reported that Iran summoned the Swiss ambassador to Iran to ship a warning to the US that Iran will maintain the US accountable for its cooperation and coordination with Israel and for giving Israel a “inexperienced gentle” to assault Iran.[72] Trump confirmed on June 12 that the US was conscious of the deliberate Israeli assault earlier than it occurred however emphasised that the US had no army involvement.[73] Trump stated that the US would defend itself and Israel from an Iranian retaliatory assault.[74] The deployment of the USS Thomas Hudner to the area is a part of the US effort to defend US property and Israel.
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[60] https://x.com/abdusalamsalah/standing/1933416806787727401?s=46&t=nQTab-m77zhUUBSh8E68DQ)
[61] https://x.com/idfonline/standing/1933563094443118908 ; https://x.com/idfonline/standing/1933568664785088767
[62] https://english.alarabiya dot web/Information/middle-east/2024/11/11/houthis-fired-missiles-targeting-military-base-in-area-of-israel-s-tel-aviv-spokesperson- ; https://www.middleeasteye.web/information/houthis-claim-missile-attack-israels-ben-gurion-airport ; HYPERLINK “https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-5-2025″https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-5-2025
[63] https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-houthis-warn-us-israel-war-if-iran-attacked-2084306
[64] https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/standing/1933468424027455817
[65] https://timesofoman dot com/article/159200-iran-announces-withdrawal-from-Sixth-round-of-talks-with-us
[66] https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/standing/1933516835397218493
[67] https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/standing/1933369583726920116; https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/standing/1933516835397218493
[68] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/13/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-israel-attack; https://x.com/badralbusaidi/standing/1933045263267995878
[69] https://timesofoman dot com/article/159200-iran-announces-withdrawal-from-Sixth-round-of-talks-with-us; https://english dot ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/547877/World/Area/Iran-halts-nuclear-talks-with-US-after-Israeli-str.aspx
[70] https://www.javanonline dot ir/fa/information/1302348/
[71] https://apnews.com/stay/israel-iran-attack#00000197-6988-d617-a597-7f99dc510000
[72] https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-strikes-news-06-12-25-hnk-intl#cmbuxi9lv00203b6v9s4guulm
[73] https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/standing/1933369583726920116
[74] https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/standing/1933369583726920116
