Iran’s Role in the Kirkuk Operation in Iraq

Key Takeaway: Iran supplied decisive army assist to compel Iraqi Kurds to give up in Kirkuk, Iraq, on October 16, 2017. Army forces from three main Iranian proxies participated within the operation: Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al Haq, and the Badr Group. Iran didn’t try and outshine Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in public. Iran as a substitute allowed Abadi to take credit score, whereas quietly positioning its proxies to affect Kirkuk sooner or later. The Institute for the Research of Conflict (ISW) performed a rigorous research of social media exercise and different reporting of troop actions in Iraq to be able to assess the function of Iran’s proxies in Kirkuk and throughout Iraq’s disputed inside boundaries.

Iranian army proxies in Iraq supported Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi’s retaking of Kirkuk by compelling Iraq’s Kurds to withdraw from their positions on October 16. ISW assesses that forces from three main Iranian proxies helped compel the Kurdish give up in Kirkuk: Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH), Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH), and the Badr Group, as this report will element. The Kurdish collapse in Kirkuk was a turning level within the battle between Iraqi Kurdistan and the Iraqi Authorities. Iran and Abadi at the moment are exploiting their success in Kirkuk and increasing their operations towards Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran’s proxies continue to play a central function. 

Methodology

The proof of Iran’s involvement within the preliminary confrontation in Kirkuk requires cautious evaluation of brazenly obtainable sources. Official media channels of the Well-liked Mobilization Forces (PMF) launched little details about which items participated within the preliminary army operations in Kirkuk on October 16. ISW assesses that the PMF imposed a media blackout, since they went darkish for an irregular length. One Fb web page affiliated with an Iranian proxy militia took down pictures and movies about its involvement in Kirkuk that it posted from October 13-16. Social media shops that usually report on PMF items have been additionally unusually quiet. This media blackout might have prolonged to Iraqi press, which additionally didn’t report particulars on PMF items. Iraqi sources additionally not often reported on Iraqi Safety Forces (ISF) unit numbers in Kirkuk, referring as a substitute to normal “Iraqi forces.” The media blackout and a few retrospective removing of supplies posted on unofficial social media hyperlinks recommend that some authorities inside the PMF, Iraq, or Iran wished to hide proof that the PMF participated.

Moreover, some Kurdish press and social media sources published old, recycled imagery to argue that the Iranian-backed proxies have been current, undermining the credibility of the official Iraqi Kurdish case. U.S. uniformed army spokesmen, senior normal officers, and State Department officials have added to the confusion by dodging press questions in regards to the involvement of PMF forces.

ISW performed a rigorous research of the obtainable proof in social media and different reporting of troop actions in Kirkuk and throughout the disputed inside boundaries to be able to assess which items comprised the PMF forces whose involvement Iraqi sources typically reported. Forces from three main Iranian proxies have been current south of Kirkuk earlier than the operation and superior together with Iraqi forces: the forty third and forty second AAH Brigades and a Badr Group unit also called the PMF twenty fourth Brigade. ISW has supplied an inventory of indicators of the presence of those items under. ISW can’t assess the particular KH unit with confidence on the time of publication. KH, AAH, and the Badr Group are deadly Iranian proxies that attacked U.S. forces in Iraq, significantly between 2006 and 2008.

Iranian Proxy Management in Kirkuk

• Badr Group chief Hadi al Ameri met with Federal Police (FP) commander Raed Jawat and the deputy head of the PMF and chief of KH Abu Mehdi al Muhandis in Bashir. An official Badr Group media website supplied footage of this assembly on Fb on October 15.* 
• Hadi al Ameri and Abu Mehdi al Muhandis attended the flag elevating in Kirkuk Metropolis together with Iraq’s Counterterrorism Companies (CTS) commander Common Yarallah. The Iraqi Military’s Twitter account posted a photo of the flag elevating, displaying all three in attendance. Fb accounts affiliated with the Badr Group additionally posted pictures and movies displaying the flag elevating.* The Mixed Joint Process Power-Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman stated that he had not seen” the pictures in response to a reporter’s inquiry throughout a press briefing on October 17.
• Hadi al Ameri toured the Bai Hasan oil area on October 16 after Peshmerga forces withdrew. A Fb account linked to the Badr Group posted a video of Hadi al Ameri touring the Bai Hasan oil area. Ameri, throughout an interview from the sphere, thanked the Peshmegra for not clashing with the ISF. An Emergency Response Division (ERD) officer was standing subsequent to Ameri. When requested if there have been oil fields underneath PMF management, Ameri stuttered, saying that “oil fields… I don’t suppose so aside from Daybaka oil area which is necessary to manage. Moreover that, I don’t suppose we’ve an issue.” *
• Extra photos and videos that circulated on social media additionally show Hadi al Ameri and Abu Mehdi al Muhandis touring websites in Kirkuk Province. 

Iranian Proxy Militia Deployments to Kirkuk

AAH

• Photos and movies taken within the neighborhood of Kirkuk Metropolis that circulated on social media included AAH flags. Western reporters additionally cited examples of AAH flags raised close to Kirkuk.
• A Fb web page affiliated with the AAH 42^nd PMF Brigade shared pictures with a caption stating that the 42^nd Brigade led by Haj Abu Bakr Jubouri was deploying to Daquq for additional motion to Kirkuk, and included a photograph of a fighter with an AAH flag.^*
• A Fb web page affiliated with AAH’s 42^nd PMF Brigade posted pictures on October 16 of fighters holding an AAH flag with a caption stating the photograph was taken at a Peshmerga place in central Kirkuk.^*
• ISW assessed on October 19 that the AAH 43^rd PMF Brigade was additionally current inside proximity of Kirkuk as of not less than October 15. The 43^rd PMF Brigade was deployed in Salah al Din province earlier than the Kirkuk operation.^* A Fb web page affiliated with AAH’s 43^rd PMF Brigade printed info, together with pictures and movies, that supported ISW’s evaluation that fighters from the Brigade deployed near Kirkuk in early October.^* Screenshots from the AAH 43^rdBrigade’s Fb web page are included under.
  

 Badr Group

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

• Al Arabiya printed a video on October 16 from a location close to Kirkuk Metropolis displaying two vehicles laden with fighters carrying KH flags, along with fighters carrying KH flags stationed at a checkpoint.

These items joined the native Iranian-backed forces stationed south of Kirkuk, which included: Kita’ib Jund al Imam, Liwa Kirkuk al Thani, and Firqat Imam Ali al Qitaliya. Qiyadat Quwat Abu Fadl al Abbas and a Hawza-affiliated PMF unit named Firqat al Abbas al Qitaliya can also have been current.

Iran’s proxies joined an Iraqi drive together with the CTS and items from the 9^th Iraqi Armored Division. It’s unclear from publicly obtainable info which particular CTS and 9^th Iraqi Armored Division items participated. The deployment of elite Iraqi items supported by armored artillery signifies Abadi meant each to discourage the Peshmerga from combating and to organize for that chance. Abadi additionally deployed troops from the FP and ERD, which constituted the one government-controlled infantry drive. The FP and ERD doubtless included items penetrated by Iran. These mixed forces staged south of Kirkuk metropolis to be able to permit an avenue for retreat for Kurdish forces to the north.

ISW mapped these forces on October 19 and updated that evaluation on October 29. ISW will proceed updating its evaluation and map if and when new info turns into obtainable.

Implications

Iran’s function in Kirkuk was decisive. The chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Power (IRGC-QF) Qassem Suleimani traveled to Iraq on October 14 to convey Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s support for Abadi’s response to the referendum. He additionally issued an ultimatum to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and probably to the Kurdistan Democratic Occasion (KDP). Chief of the Badr Group, Hadi al Ameri, additionally threatened “inside battle” if the Peshmerga didn’t withdraw from Kirkuk. The deployment of Iran’s proxies to Kirkuk tipped the scales towards Iraqi Kurdistan sufficient to compel it to withdraw from Kirkuk and enormous parts of Iraq’s disputed inside boundaries.

 Iran achieved a second objective by way of its assist in Kirkuk: to additional legitimize its proxies in Iraq whereas sidelining america. Iran seeks to subordinate the Iraqi authorities from inside, and was cautious to border the Kirkuk operation as a sovereign Iraqi motion. Iran quietly supplied vital assist that ensured Abadi’s success whereas positioning its proxies to have affect in Kirkuk transferring ahead. Iran additionally took motion to maintain the U.S. on the sidelines by deploying an Explosively Shaped Penetrator (EFP) towards U.S. forces in early October. The Kirkuk operation thus bears indicators of Iraq’s almost definitely future on current trajectory: Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi notionally in management, Iran’s proxies appearing on Tehran’s orders however as reputable arms of the Iraqi state, and the U.S. on the sidelines.

Iran’s proxies will capitalize politically and militarily on their function in Kirkuk and throughout Iraq’s Disputed Inside Boundaries (DIBS). The battlefield circulations of main proxy leaders round Kirkuk bolstered their public picture forward of Iraq’s elections scheduled for early 2018. Their subordinates might compete in native Kirkuk politics. Their forces will doubtless management or contest Iraqi authorities management of Kirkuk’s army infrastructure and oil installations. Prime Minister Abadi positioned an Iranian shopper, Ali Fadhil Imran, on the head of a brand new Kirkuk Operations command on October 28. Imran is the previous head of the Iranian-influenced 5^th Iraqi Military Division. Unconfirmed experiences point out Abadi additionally appointed an Iranian client, Abdul-Amir al-Zaydi, as the top of “redeployment operations” throughout Iraq’s DIBS and border crossings on November 5. Zaydi is the previous head of the Iranian-influenced Dijla Operations Command. These appointments allow Iran’s proxies to consolidate militarily in Kirkuk and throughout the DIBS.

The U.S. stays a number of steps behind Iran. President Donald Trump rolled out a brand new anti-Iran technique days earlier than the Kirkuk operation, with out specifying prescriptions for holding and reversing the energy of Iran’s proxy networks. The Trump Administration’s preliminary apathy towards Iran’s function within the Kirkuk operation appeared to point the U.S. won’t meaningfully push again towards Iran in Iraq. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson supplied a extra forceful, however nonetheless sluggish, U.S. response to Iran’s function in Kirkuk in a subsequent journey to the Center East from October 22-23. Tillerson said “Iranian militias which are in Iraq…must go dwelling” throughout a press convention with Saudi Arabia’s Overseas Minister Adel al Jubeir on October 22. Secretary Tillerson’s assertion acknowledges the menace Iran’s proxies in Iraq pose, however rolling again their affect is just not achievable by way of rhetoric alone. Abadi reportedly responded to Secretary Tillerson by stating the PMF “defended their nation and made the sacrifices that contributed to the victory over ISIS. Abadi subsequently said that he’ll disarm Iran’s proxies in the event that they refuse to undergo his management, in an effort to reaffirm his intent to stay aligned with U.S. coverage. He doesn’t have the aptitude to take action with out direct American army assist, nevertheless. Solely a critical change in U.S. coverage in Iraq can save Abadi from de facto cooptation by Iran.