Allentown, Pennsylvania
CNN
—
Todd Tougher voted for Donald Trump and is aware of firsthand his neighborhood would profit if the president can ship on his promise of a fast American manufacturing renaissance.
However Tougher doesn’t consider he’ll ever see it. The early proof, Tougher stated, is that the tariffs and hard commerce discuss Trump says will carry again manufacturing facility growth occasions is as a substitute resulting in onerous occasions.
“My era, it’s not going to (positively) influence. It’ll harm us,” stated Tougher, the proprietor of ProDart, which makes wood darts and dartboards in an Allentown industrial park. “Sooner or later, for the following era, it’d presumably assist them out. But it surely’s impacting the folks which can be right here now immediately … in a not-good means.”
That skeptical short-term take — from a Trump supporter — is value noting and monitoring: Trump’s political standing is down from Inauguration Day, and the financial tumult brought on by the tariffs debate is part of his slip.
Tougher lives in a Pennsylvania and American bellwether: the seventh Congressional District. Trump gained it simply barely in 2024, and the Home seat flipped from Blue to Purple. It’s already a high goal within the 2026 midterms.
The Lehigh Valley holds icon standing within the historical past of American manufacturing. Bethlehem Metal and Western Electrical have been among the many valley giants again within the day; Mack Vans and Martin Guitars are immediately. Crayola crayons is an Easton landmark whose lineage traces again to a turn-of-the-century firm that made the crimson barn paint that dots the agricultural countryside.
The globalization and commerce debates that animate Trump immediately have outlined the Lehigh Valley financial system for a era now. There have been greater than 66,000 manufacturing facility jobs within the valley in 1990, simply shy of 55,000 a decade later and a low of 35,000 in 2011. By the top of 2024, manufacturing employment had climbed again to 41,000. It has been flat within the 4 months Trump has been again within the White Home.
Tougher and ProDart have a tiny place in these statistics. Fourteen staff at its peak; 5 now, together with Tougher’s mother and father.
“We’re type of gradual proper now,” stated Tougher. “Cash is tight. Individuals are complaining hire is admittedly excessive. Loads of locations, simply the money movement isn’t there. So, I feel all people’s beginning to turn out to be slightly extra conservative on spending proper now.”
Tougher solely sometimes sources supplies from overseas suppliers, so tariffs aren’t actually a direct hit on his enterprise. However he says different native producers are hurting, to various levels, and the tumult of the tariffs debate has harm client confidence.
“Six to a seven, however no more,” is the grade Tougher provides Trump on the financial system at 4 months. “He simply bought into it. See the place it pans out.”
Tougher simply bought into it, too. He’s 55, however his 2024 vote for Trump was the primary time he had forged a poll.
Sure, he was mad about inflation. He thought Trump’s tax insurance policies could be higher for his household and his enterprise. However that’s not what pulled Tougher off the sidelines after skipping each earlier election since he was first eligible to vote in 1988.
“There’s no regulation and order anymore. The smoking marijuana stuff — that’s getting out of hand,” Tougher stated. “Go watch TV. You might have males kissing and every little thing else and all of the transgenders. You didn’t have that earlier than. You understand, there’s a God. I’m Catholic.”
He says there are too many Puerto Rican flags round Allentown, too few colleges educating cursive and starting with the Pledge of Allegiance.
“I used to be simply so disgusted,” Tougher stated. “Simply how every little thing on this world, you recognize it’ll crap.”
The Trump marketing campaign and its allies made a methodical, concerted effort to focus on rare or unreliable voters like Tougher; immigration, transgender rights and assaults on “woke” Democrats have been key items of that technique.
His choice to vote — to affix the MAGA tradition wars — additionally benefited the seventh District’s new Republican congressman, Ryan Mackenzie. He defeated the Democratic incumbent by just 4,062 votes. However Tougher isn’t positive whether or not he’ll vote once more in 2026.
“If I really feel that issues are working correctly, sure,” he stated. “If I don’t see something altering, then it actually doesn’t matter what my vote is.”
The Lehigh Valley was a repeat cease for our All Over the Map venture within the 2024 cycle, and Tougher is among the many extra voters we hope to remain in contact with by way of 2026 and past, to trace the primary two years of the Trump time period by way of their eyes and experiences.
Michelle Rios is one other, a battleground voter on the opposite aspect of the MAGA cultural divide.
Rios helps run a range, fairness and inclusion program at a neighborhood faculty, and she or he will get a mixture of offended and amused at how her work is described by Trump and his allies. A traditional day, she stated, seemingly consists of monetary assist recommendation to a minority pupil, possibly assist navigating campus golf equipment or social occasions. Of late, she could be coping with rumors about misplaced funding or immigration crackdowns.
“I needed to assist out faculty college students the identical means that I used to be helped out as a result of it made an unimaginable distinction in my life and in my journey,” Rios stated in an interview in Bethlehem.
She was a pupil in the course of the first Trump time period and recollects all the time being on edge. She is decided this time to maintain calm, whereas determining whether or not her faculty program will likely be impacted, or whether or not nonprofits she works with within the bustling Latino neighborhood right here will likely be impacted as a result of Trump officers view their grants as associated to range.
“It simply instills worry, and I feel that’s primarily what the previous couple of months have completed to folks,” Rios stated. “So I attempt to concentrate on the motion half. Like, this occurred, so now what can we do about it?”
The motion half, to Rios, consists of discovering methods to win again the rising variety of Latinos who left the Democrats to help Trump and different Republicans.
“Typically it has a bit to do with Latino tradition,” she stated. “Typically we don’t need to see girls in a sure place.”
One other effort: “Simply attempting to encourage much less social media. … I feel that’s additionally what made an enormous distinction.”
Rios set free lengthy sigh when requested what she would say if she had a minute with President Trump.
“I don’t suppose I’d desire a minute,” was her first response. Then, “There’s numerous issues that come to thoughts, however I simply don’t suppose I’d know the place to start out.”
Gerard Babb has no such hesitation. He would ask President Trump to attempt to save his job.
The irony, he says, is that he sees Trump as at the very least partially accountable for the actual fact he’ll seemingly lose it quickly.
Babb works within the meeting line at Mack Vans, a serious employer within the space. However the firm introduced not too long ago it could slash 250 to 350 jobs from its 2,600-member workforce right here.
It cited Trump tariffs as an element, saying the president was softening demand. The United Auto Employees and others, together with Rep. Mackenzie, counsel the corporate is utilizing Trump as a foil and has lengthy needed to shift some manufacturing to Mexico.
“I consider they performed a component,” Babb stated of the Trump tariffs. “Donald Trump may have had slightly bit extra finesse as a substitute of utilizing a blanket coverage over every little thing.”
Babb’s first vote was for Barack Obama in 2008. However he switched to Mitt Romney in 2012 after which forged three votes for Trump.
“A B+” is how he grades Trump on the four-month mark, regardless of his jitters about shedding his job.
However day by day is extra nerve-racking, as Babb checks seniority charts to see if regular turnover may by some means save him by the point Mack pronounces an actual quantity and timing.
“I used to be a 171 after they first introduced,” Babb stated. “Now I’m at 218. … If I can get about 350 it could be good. However so long as I’m previous 250, I’ve an opportunity.”
Babb voted for Mackenzie, too, however says it’s far too early to decide to his 2026 midterm vote.
The power of the financial system is his high concern, and he stated Mackenzie would assist his probabilities if Congress eradicated taxes on time beyond regulation or did different issues that will assist his household. Babb stated he’s open to voting for the Democrat for Congress if that candidate had higher financial insurance policies.
“I haven’t seen something but,” Babb stated when requested in regards to the White Home promise to shortly enhance manufacturing. “I’d like to see extra manufacturing jobs within the space.”
Most of his time now, although, is split between preserving on high of the layoffs information at work after which attempting to shake the stress and spend time along with his spouse and three youngsters.
“It’s nerve-racking that I’m (seemingly) going to be out of labor within the close to future,” Babb stated. “As a result of I need to present for my spouse and youngsters. It’s the uncertainty that actually will get to me.”
