The Russian warfare in Ukraine, essentially the most devastating navy engagement in Europe since 1945, has continued for 3 years, and the prospect of its decision — with the Trump administration opening talks with Russia — has not generated widespread optimism.
In a current interview with the Financial Times, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the warfare’s conclusion, if and when it comes, might unleash a wave of organized crime flooding into Poland after which spreading throughout Europe and even into the U.S. His considerations echo a sentiment lengthy whispered in Western political circles. He in contrast the state of affairs to the Nineteen Nineties in Russia, when the return of veterans from the Soviet-Afghanistan warfare fueled violence throughout the previous USSR.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry pushed back, calling his remarks unfair: “Ukrainian troopers and veterans are usually not a risk however an element of safety for Ukraine, Poland and all of Europe.”
Duda’s comparability, nonetheless, could understate the risks forward. The Soviet warfare in Afghanistan lasted a decade however didn’t produce the extent of social upheaval that Russia’s invasion has inflicted on Ukraine. The nation’s navy now numbers 980,000, in keeping with President Volodymyr Zelensky, and tons of of 1000’s of battle-hardened and battle-scarred troopers will return to civilian life — many with lacking limbs, many extra with deep psychological wounds — and all to a rustic in ruins. The place will they go? What is going to they do?
Ukraine has already skilled the downstream results of post-war psychological well being issues. In April 2018, when Russia’s aggression wasn’t known as a warfare however a “terrorist” motion within the Donbas, knowledge revealed that greater than 1,000 Ukraine veterans of these less-intense battles had dedicated suicide.
Now the Ukrainian Well being Ministry estimates that nearly 15 million people — in a inhabitants of lower than 40 million — would require psychological help because of the warfare.
But the nation’s shattered financial system — its public debt reached $166.1 billion in December — raises severe doubts about its skill to fund important providers, together with psychological well being packages. Final 12 months, amid a lot fanfare, Ukraine legalized medical hashish partly to assist troops and civilians affected by PTSD and different war-related psychological diseases. However medical marijuana is little greater than a Band-Assist on a bullet wound for a navy by which, according to one study, there is only one psychologist for each 400-500 service members.
Earlier than the warfare, there have been an estimated 4 million firearms in Ukraine, most of them unregistered, and an untold quantity circulating on the black market. After the invasion, gun ownership laws were liberalized and Zelensky promised that the federal government would give a weapon to anybody who needed to defend the nation. Within the Kyiv space alone, 18,000 rifles had been distributed to civilians, and homefront militias had been inspired. When 1000’s of energetic responsibility troops are demobilized, military-grade weapons could add to the increase in armed civilians and the dangers of upper crime charges.
Regardless of the powderkeg potential, the Ukrainian government appears extra targeted on political maneuvering — each in home energy struggles and worldwide diplomacy — than on making ready for the warfare’s aftermath. Officers often make statements about world politics and safety alliances, but significant efforts to handle veterans’ reintegration and welfare stay conspicuously missing.
A peace settlement perceived as a capitulation might additional erode nationwide morale that’s already at a low level, with falling troop levels and Russia’s current front-line features within the combating. Historical past reveals that in such moments typically public disillusionment grows, weakening confidence in management. Throughout these durations, excessive factions could emerge, stoking unrest and pending a fragile order.
When Russia launched its full-on invasion in February 2022, Ukrainians united below symbols that had beforehand divided them. The slogan Slava Ukraini! (Glory to Ukraine), as soon as related to ultra-right-wing nationalist actions throughout World Battle II, was embraced nationwide, even in areas the place nationalism had been controversial.
However in 2025, excessive nationalist fervor has waned. This could possibly be a brief lull earlier than one other eruption of unrest, provoked by post-war trauma, hardship and disillusionment. That, mixed with an armed inhabitants and a era of younger males solid in warfare might threaten Ukraine as a lot as Russian aggression has.
It appears sure that after the warfare ends, Ukraine will face a brand new battle — inside strife. Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly factoring this into any peace deal. What he failed to realize by his “particular navy operation,” he could try to realize from inside.
Ukraine will want important Western help to navigate these challenges. Monetary support, infrastructure improvement and complete psychological well being providers can be essential to reintegrate veterans and preserve stability.
But help for Ukraine “till it wins” has been waning in Western Europe and in America. A current Guardian poll highlights a pointy decline in enthusiasm, coinciding with rising doubts about U.S. overseas and navy support. Whether or not allies will step as much as stop a post-war collapse in Ukraine — or let it unravel from inside — stays an open query.
Peace could come, however there’s a actual concern that the warfare’s aftermath could possibly be nearly as destabilizing for Ukraine as its starting.
Sergey Maidukov, writer of “Life on the Run: One Household’s Seek for Peace in Battle-torn Ukraine” amongst different books, is predicated in Kyiv.
