I got an unexpected afternoon tea invitation, and it told me a lot about Donald Trump

A day tea assembly with a president just isn’t the kind of invitation you get each day as a overseas correspondent.

However that’s precisely the place I discovered myself on Tuesday afternoon in Finland’s capital, Helsinki — having a cup of tea and a few tiny pastries over a chat with President Alexander Stubb.

I used to be on task in Finland once I obtained a shock invitation to hitch a small group of journalists from publications in Kyiv, Brussels, London, Madrid and Rome for the 45-minute assembly.

After passing safety checks, we took our seats across the lengthy, wood eating desk at Stubb’s residence, surrounded by an eclectic mixture of Finnish artwork on one aspect, and lengthy, glass home windows looking to pine bushes and the native neighbourhood on the opposite.

The dialog traversed geopolitics and world safety, however primarily, it revealed so much about Donald Trump. Here is why.

Regardless of main a rustic with a inhabitants of simply 5.7 million — that is lower than 1 / 4 the scale of Australia — Stubb is a rising drive in geopolitics.

Finland shares a 1,340-kilometre land border with Russia (roughly the identical distance as driving from Sydney to Adelaide).

It has been a staunch ally of Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion three-and-a-half years in the past, and Stubb has turn into a detailed confidant of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

However the Finnish chief can be constructing a stable relationship with Trump, which makes him higher positioned than most to look at how the US president goes about making an attempt to attain a peace deal for Ukraine.

He was a part of a core group of European leaders who travelled to the White Home for a debrief with the US president after his August in-person summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He is additionally joined different high-level video calls with the US chief.

“I believe President Trump is working, if not across the clock, however not less than each day with making an attempt to finish Russia’s warfare of aggression in Ukraine,” Stubb, 57, advised our group this week.

“I believe he started with carrots, to Russia and to Putin, and having seen that carrots hardly ever work with the Russians, he is moved to the stick stage.

“Now it is only a query of how large the stick goes to be.”

When requested to elaborate on the stick analogy, Stubb joked, “a driver”, which is the most important and strongest golf membership.

“He has 14 golf equipment in his bag, they usually vary from sanctions to tariffs, each major and secondary, so I assume that is 4 sticks,” he stated.

Like President Trump, Finland’s president is aware of a factor or two about golf.

He was as soon as in his nation’s nationwide workforce and made world headlines again in March when he performed a spherical with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago membership in Florida.

Over a number of hours, the pair spoke about overseas coverage and the warfare in Ukraine, with Stubb reportedly telling Trump that Putin couldn’t be trusted.

It was a dialogue some analysts have credited with serving to to alter the US president’s perspective about Russia’s long-time chief.

Stubb believes Trump can finish Ukraine warfare

Stubb, who described himself as a “sensible optimist” throughout our chat, appeared assured the US president might assist finish the warfare in Ukraine ultimately.

“I’ve had the likelihood to work with President Trump fairly carefully over the previous few months,” Stubb stated.

“I believe the truth that he met President Zelenskyy in New York [during last month’s UN General Assembly] and gave guarantees on navy tools is a trigger for optimism, and I believe additionally the sentiment that President Trump is now working out of endurance with Putin is a trigger for optimism, so we’ll see how the Russians react.”

Stubb stated that for all of the threats and intimidation — together with well-documented situations of drones and planes encroaching on NATO airspace prior to now few weeks — he thought Putin was “starting to really feel the warmth”.

“This time final yr … the [Russian] financial system was doing pretty nicely, and it is not now,” he stated.

However some analysts argue that whereas unusual Russians is likely to be feeling the results of inflation, and sanctions, these on the high of the nation’s energy vertical will not be.

In addition they level out Moscow continues to have sturdy relationships with nations corresponding to Brazil, North Korea, India, South Africa and China.

“I plead to China … it might take one telephone name from President Xi Jinping to President Putin to finish this warfare,” Stubb stated.

“It’s, in fact, not so simple as that, however I do not assume we must always underestimate the position of China in forcing Russia to finish this battle.”

Within the occasion of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire, Finland has joined the France- and United Kingdom-led Coalition of the Keen to help Ukraine with safety ensures, together with forming what has been described as “a reassurance drive”.

Kyiv’s European allies, in addition to different nations, together with Australia, are additionally a part of that group.

I requested the president how help from as far-off as Australia might make a distinction.

“I believe it is key. It simply exhibits that this isn’t solely a European endeavour, or solely a transatlantic endeavour,” he stated.

“It was instrumental to get in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea … Canada, after which in fact Norway and Iceland, who will not be EU members. This simply exhibits the broadness of it.

Is {that a} trace that Australia, which has had a various peacekeeping historical past since 1947, will present boots on the bottom?

The Australian authorities has not but introduced what Australia’s position could be.

“I type of really feel sorry for [the Australians], as a result of each time now we have [coalition video calls], it is in the midst of the night time their time, however, heroically, they’re there,” Stubb stated.