The congressional map Texas Republicans hope to enact so effectively distributes GOP voters that final yr, President Donald Trump would’ve received all the 30 districts the place the occasion hopes to win by at the very least ten proportion factors.
In drawing the map, Republicans focused 5 Democratic-held districts with precision, fastidiously slicing out blue areas and redistributing them to different districts that are already secure for both occasion and changing them with solidly crimson turf.
The map seems to be more likely to carry out effectively for Republicans if the occasion continues to do as effectively within the state as they did in 2024, when Trump received by almost 14 factors. Nevertheless, if a future election seems to be extra like 2020, when Trump’s margin was lower than half that, a number of of those districts might be way more aggressive.
Right here’s a take a look at the 5 districts and the way Republicans need to redraw them.
District 9 in Houston would change dramatically below the brand new map, morphing from a Democratic district primarily based in southern Houston to a Republican district in japanese Harris County. Whereas Democratic Rep. Al Inexperienced presently represents the ninth, he may run in the neighboring 18th District instead, which has been vacant since Rep. Sylvester Turner died earlier this year. That district would take in a lot of Inexperienced’s present turf and change into much more Democratic below the proposed map.
An enormous piece of Rep. Julie Johnson’s Dallas-area thirty second District could be merged with Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey’s thirty third, whereas different Democratic areas could be distributed to closely Republican seats. The brand new thirty second would then lengthen east into the closely Republican counties of Rockwall, Hunt, Rains, Wooden, Camp and Upshur.
District 35: Austin and San Antonio
The Republican proposal would remove Rep. Greg Casar’s Austin to San Antonio thirty fifth District in its present kind. The brand new thirty fifth would come with some Democratic components of San Antonio, however would stretch out from town into extra Republican turf in Guadalupe, Karnes and Wilson counties. A lot of the Austin portion of the district could be absorbed into Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s thirty seventh.
Of the 5 focused seats, District 28 has the smallest partisan shift. As a result of Trump received the present district by seven factors final yr, whilst Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar received his eleventh time period, it sees simply small modifications to push Trump’s margin to double digits. The brand new map cuts out some Democratic areas in San Antonio whereas including extra Republicans, particularly in Reside Oak, La Salle and Maverick Counties. The district additionally beneficial properties a portion of Hidalgo County alongside the Mexican border, which Trump received extra narrowly.
Cuellar received in 2024 by a bit lower than six factors, so he might nonetheless have an opportunity to hold on, even when the district turns into three factors extra Republican.
Equally to the twenty eighth, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez holds the close by thirty fourth regardless of Trump successful it by about 4 proportion factors final yr. The brand new map pushes that margin to double digits by excising a portion of Hidalgo County on the Mexican border, which Trump carried narrowly and which incorporates some Democratic areas, and changing it with a portion of Nueces County close to Corpus Christi, the place Trump received 57% of the vote.
Gonzalez could be in a harder place than Cuellar below this map. He received by lower than three factors in November, and his district will see an even bigger shift in the direction of Trump.
Districts 28 and 34 are each Hispanic-majority districts in part of the state which have swung dramatically in the direction of Republicans lately. Even within the 2022 election for governor, the twenty eighth would’ve voted solidly Democratic, whereas Republican Greg Abbott would’ve very narrowly carried the thirty fourth. That shift to the suitable might want to proceed if Republicans need to be assured they will win these seats in 2026.
