Home sales just posted their biggest monthly fall since 2022 : NPR

The spring housing market was imagined to growth. As an alternative, it is whimpering.

Current dwelling gross sales in March slumped 5.9% from February — the biggest month-to-month decline since November 2022 when seasonally adjusted.

In comparison with a yr in the past, gross sales in March have been down 2.4% from March 2024.

The decline got here as one thing of a shock, following an uptick in sales in February. More inventory has been hitting the market, which was anticipated to drive gross sales, and spring tends to be among the many busiest instances for dwelling gross sales, as mother and father with children attempt to transfer when faculty is out for the summer season.

As an alternative, the gross sales figures recommend that the housing market is in a continued stoop, hampered by excessive mortgage charges.

After inching down within the first months of the yr, mortgage charges have jumped increased within the final couple weeks, as President Trump’s tariff threats have roiled bond markets that assist affect mortgage charges.

The typical price for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.81% over the past week, according to data from Freddie Mac. In March and early April, charges have been nearer to six.6%.

In the meantime, dwelling costs are additionally nonetheless climbing — although extra slowly than earlier than. The median current dwelling gross sales value for March was $403,700. That is up from up $392,900 from one yr in the past, and from $398,400 in February.

Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, expects dwelling gross sales to “flatline at finest.” He notes that current gross sales have carefully tracked mortgage charges over the previous few years: When charges rise, gross sales drop – and vice versa.

“The massive image nonetheless is one among a really subdued housing market, frozen by the gulf between the standard market charges on new mortgages — practically 7% proper now — and charges on current mortgages —which averaged 4.3% in This fall,” writes Allen.

The low dwelling gross sales might additionally sign one thing bigger about American society: much less financial mobility. Folks’s financial standing could also be “frozen,” stated Yun, with fewer folks buying and selling as much as nicer houses.

The final two years have been extremely gradual, with current dwelling gross sales at their lowest levels for the reason that mid-Nineteen Nineties.

New dwelling gross sales are rosier

Elsewhere available in the market, a special story is unfolding. Gross sales of new single-family houses have been up 7.4% from February, and 6% increased than a yr in the past. That is according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Division of Housing and City Improvement launched on Wednesday.

The median gross sales value of recent houses bought in March 2025 was $403,600 — a smidge decrease than the median gross sales value of an current dwelling.

That is uncommon: There’s normally a 15-20% premium for brand new houses, stated Yun. This month’s value parity between new and current houses is a sign that homebuilders are extra into developing smaller, cheaper houses — and never the high-priced McMansions of yore.

That offer is nice information for consumers who’ve been priced out of the present dwelling market — although some areas, particularly the Northeast, are constructing scant little new housing.

Nonetheless, there are indicators that this yr’s spring market total could be a weak one.

Mortgage purposes decreased 12.7% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Affiliation for the week ending April 18.

That is the results of mortgage charges leaping within the final two weeks, stated MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit in a press release.

“[M]any potential debtors will probably keep on the sidelines till they’ve a greater thought of the course that charges, and the financial system, are headed,” he stated.