Washington
CNN
—
President Donald Trump has falsely claimed this week that grocery costs are “happening” and “are down.” In truth, grocery costs have continued to rise beneath Trump – they usually had been up even earlier than he imposed near-global 10% tariffs earlier this month.
Trump made the most recent model of the false declare whereas denouncing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Powell had warned in Wednesday public remarks that Trump’s tariff insurance policies are more likely to result in slower financial progress and better inflation.
Trump wrote on social media Thursday that Powell ought to have lowered rates of interest “way back” and will accomplish that now, as the European Central Bank did again on Thursday.
Trump’s argument: “Oil costs are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS.” He had equally claimed on social media on Tuesday that the US is taking in hefty tariff income “with the price of virtually all merchandise happening, together with gasoline, groceries, and nearly all the things else.”
However grocery costs are not down or happening.
Common grocery costs had been about 2.41% increased in March 2025 than they had been in March 2024, Consumer Price Index data shows. This was the very best year-over-year grocery inflation price since August 2023.
And common March 2025 grocery costs had been up about 0.49% from February 2025. That was the very best month-to-month grocery inflation price since October 2022.
Month-to-month grocery inflation was fairly low in February 2025, with common costs basically the identical as they had been in January 2025. The leap in March 2025, although, meant that common grocery costs final month had been about 0.49% increased than they had been in January 2025, the month Trump returned to workplace. (It’s attainable that costs at some explicit grocery shops have fallen beneath Trump.)
And this improve in common grocery costs occurred earlier than Trump imposed 10% tariffs in early April on imports from most international locations (notably excluding items from main agricultural buying and selling companions Canada and Mexico which might be compliant with Trump’s USMCA deal).
These 10% tariffs are certain to increase grocery prices, although it’s not clear by how a lot. Costs would possible rise additional if Trump re-imposed the upper tariffs he put on pause for 90 days hours after they briefly went into impact in early April.
Assessing Trump’s different claims within the social media posts
We’ll briefly assess Trump’s different claims about inflation within the two social media posts this week.
It’s true that oil costs have gone down since Trump returned to workplace. However Trump didn’t point out that many analysts say this decline is partly associated to concerns that the tariff wars he initiated will sluggish the worldwide financial system and due to this fact scale back demand for oil.
US retail gasoline costs have fallen barely to this point this month, per knowledge offered to CNN by AAA, declining from a nationwide common of about $3.20 per gallon on April 1 to about $3.17 per gallon on Thursday. However costs are up barely since Trump returned to the White Home on January 20, when the nationwide common was about $3.12 per gallon.
Retail egg costs have spiked beneath Trump amid an avian flu outbreak, hitting a brand new excessive of about $6.23 per dozen on common in March – about 25.7% increased than the common in January. Wholesale egg costs, nevertheless, have declined sharply since late February, so it’s attainable egg costs paid by shoppers are falling this month, too.
Trump has not less than one knowledge level to quote as proof for his declare that general shopper costs are coming down: there was a tiny decline in general costs in March 2025 in comparison with February 2025, about 0.05%, on a seasonally adjusted foundation. However that, too, was earlier than Trump imposed his 10% tariffs in early April. And at the same time as of March, costs had been about 0.17% increased on a seasonally adjusted foundation than they had been in January 2025 and about 2.41% increased than they had been in March 2024.
