Amid renewed discuss by U.S. officers of buying Greenland — and rising tensions over Arctic dominance — an professional on the area’s politics explains what’s actually at stake.
Steve Lamy, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Worldwide Relations and Spatial Sciences on the USC Dornsife Faculty of Letters, Arts and Sciences, breaks down the motivations, dangers and world penalties behind U.S. curiosity on the earth’s largest island.
What makes Greenland a useful asset for President Trump and the US?
The Trump administration has pushed two arguments for taking Greenland. The primary is to achieve management of uncommon earth minerals or uncommon earth components, corresponding to lithium and titanium, essential for manufacturing telephones, laptop chips and different new applied sciences, and the second is said to U.S. safety.
Greenland is in an important geostrategic location. It’s proximate to the U.S. and Canada and a part of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) hole, a strategic sea hall for delivery and the motion of submarines and naval warships. This space was important to defending the North Atlantic and the U.S. East Coast throughout World Conflict II, main the U.S. to ascertain and keep many bases in Greenland. At this time, the U.S. maintains solely the Pituffick Area, and Danish Arctic forces present the island’s safety. As Arctic ice melts, the area is extra open to ship visitors, together with Chinese language and Russian warships, icebreakers and submarines.
The Trump administration needs management of those minerals and blocks Chinese language efforts to take action. Of 34 essential minerals, 31 are ample. Nonetheless, infrastructure points corresponding to the dearth of roads, extreme climate situations, and Inuit cultural traditions supporting a sustainable looking and fishing setting have slowed mining efforts. Many mining proposals have been submitted to the Greenlandic authorities, however solely two lively mines now function in Greenland.
Does Trump’s curiosity in Greenland mirror a coverage stance or only a symbolic push to counter China and Russia’s rising affect within the Arctic?
The present Trump international coverage rejects 80 years of U.S. management in world affairs that promote democracy, capitalism and the rule of regulation by multilateral cooperation and collective problem-solving. Each Republican and Democratic administration since WWII — particularly by the Chilly Conflict — has endorsed and defended this order. The Trump administration is not prepared to defend the concepts and establishments that “gained the Chilly Conflict” with out some type of payback. This place means that present U.S. international coverage is in a brand new place, with materials pursuits overwhelming objectives based mostly on beliefs and ideas.
Trump’s Greenland technique is principally concerning the U.S. financial battle with China. Information means that China refines 40 – 90% of the worldwide provide of key components. Of the 50 essential minerals listed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. imports 50 – 100% of 41 of them, in keeping with a 2025 Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research report. The Trump administration worries that China will use its management of those minerals to harm the U.S. financial system, counter U.S. tariff insurance policies, and acquire extra geopolitical energy and affect.
Issues about Russia are extra associated to navy safety. Russia might problem North American and European safety with its icebreakers and submarines, and Arctic safety challenges haven’t been a precedence for the Trump administration.
In previous administrations, cooperation with our allies and dealing throughout the guidelines and practices of worldwide and regional organizations had been favored methods. For instance, the Biden administration established the Minerals Safety Partnership — which included Greenland, Canada and Ukraine — to take care of essential mineral provide chains outdoors China. Trump prefers colonial-style relationships and never multilateral partnerships. Once more, his transactional model might clarify his current demand that Ukraine give the U.S. unique entry to its minerals and his need to take management of Greenland and its sources.
How would possibly Trump’s discuss of buying Greenland influence NATO and U.S.-European alliances?
If Trump implements a coercive diplomacy technique to take Greenland by drive or the specter of drive and commerce sanctions, NATO will condemn the motion. Whereas NATO gained’t reply militarily, it’s possible that U.S. participation within the alliance would finish, prompting Europe and Canada to type a brand new collective protection group. This partnership, which can embrace Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan, might be one other part within the effort to create strategic autonomy from an unreliable U.S. The Western alliance with the Asia-Pacific companions might want to step up and redesign the worldwide safety system and put together to reply militarily to world safety challenges.
What’s the larger risk to the Arctic, local weather change or the scramble for sources?
Due to climate situations, the scramble for sources within the Arctic is proscribed to some gamers. It’s not as intense as the present competitors for sources in Africa, for instance.
The principle drawback within the Arctic is local weather change, which continues to extend due to the actions of world customers in non-Arctic areas. Solely 4 million stay within the Arctic area, and the persevering with consumption of fossil fuels by most non-Arctic states is warming the planet, and the world’s collective actions to gradual local weather change are merely insufficient.
Main oil corporations have an interest within the Arctic, nevertheless it’s troublesome to discover. Norwegian oil large Equinor has intensive expertise within the area, as do Russian corporations, that are all growing manufacturing as a result of Russia must finance its struggle with Ukraine. Russia is collaborating with China to drill and can also be utilizing unlawful ghost ships to interrupt the sanctions and promote extra gasoline and oil to anybody prepared to pay. President Trump needs so as to add Greenland to America’s home sources of oil, gasoline and minerals.
The Arctic paradox implies that as local weather change warms the planet, ice melts and extra Arctic areas are open for exploration and drilling. Meaning extra consumption, extra world warming and extra competitors among the many nice powers.
And if warming continues, the Northern Sea Route throughout Russia and the Northwest Passage above Canada and the U.S. might open additional, resulting in elevated ocean visitors and a scramble for close by sources. It might additionally enhance the vulnerability of communities within the area to a wide range of unhealthy actors.
