Morning opening: All eyes on European safety
Jakub Krupa
EU commissioners are assembly at this time for a “safety school” dialogue on defence and safety points, the place they are going to be joined by the secretary basic of Nato, Mark Rutte.
Their assembly comes amid rising considerations about drones showing in European airspace, inflicting persevering with disruption in elements of the Nordics. It stays unconfirmed who or what’s behind them, however nonetheless prompted a robust response within the area. Denmark, which is able to host two main European summits this week, moved to instantly strengthen its air defences to safeguard the conferences.
Earlier this month, numerous central and japanese European international locations additionally reported Russian violations of their airspace, most notably when over 20 drones crossed into Poland, and three MiG fighter jets violated Estonian airspace.
Talking in Brussels in the previous couple of minutes, the European Fee president, Ursula von der Leyen, mentioned “Europe should ship a robust and united response to Russia’s drone incursions at our borders,” stressing the necessity to press forward with constructing a “drone wall” to extend safety.
Nato’s Rutte agreed with the urgency, stressing that whereas the alliance continues to be assessing who – or what – is behind the drone incursions in Denmark, “with regards to Poland and Estonia, it’s clear that it’s the Russians.”
“Nonetheless, we’re assessing whether or not it’s intentional or not. However even when it’s not intentional, it’s reckless and it’s unacceptable.”
Von der Leyen additionally spoke about Ukraine, hailing its resilience and stressing it has ceded “just about no territory this 12 months”, regardless of persevering with battle. She mentioned the EU’s sanctions “are working” and the bloc will need to push additional with the upcoming, nineteenth package deal of measures in opposition to Moscow.
The EU has agreed with Ukraine that “a complete of €2bn will likely be spent on drones,” which “permits Ukraine to scale up and to make use of its full capability.” Crucially, von der Leyen indicated the EU will need to push forward with what it calls “reparation loans,” primarily based on the frozen Russian property – part of which will likely be used to fund EU defence trade, too.
She provided a bit extra element on how the scheme is meant to work, saying:
“The mortgage wouldn’t be disbursed in a single go, however in tranches and with circumstances connected. And we are going to strengthen our personal defence trade by guaranteeing that a part of the mortgage is used for procurement in Europe and with Europe.
Importantly, there isn’t any seizing of the property. Ukraine has to repay the mortgage, if Russia is paying reparations. The perpetrator should be held accountable.”
We expect extra safety discussions to return at this time, together with these taking place through the second day of the Warsaw Safety Discussion board, the place we’re going to hear from ministers and US particular envoy Keith Kellogg, amongst others.
I’ll convey you all the most recent right here.
It’s Tuesday, 30 September 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa right here, and that is Europe Stay.
Good morning.
Key occasions
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‘Look at world not as we wish it to be, but how it is,’ UK’s former defence secretary tells of his lessons from Russian invasion on Ukraine
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Finland to help Denmark raise its defences ahead of two European summits, president Stubb says
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Putin ‘in his heart of hearts realises he can’t win this,’ US Kellogg says
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‘His drug is power’: Lukashenko reaches out to the west
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Poland detains Ukrainian man wanted over alleged involvement in Nord Stream explosions – report
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Copenhagen residents to see ‘massive invasion of police officers’ as capital prepares for two major summits after drone sightings
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UK, France, Germany, Sweden to help Denmark increase security after drone incursions
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Former aide to German AfD lawmaker jailed for spying for China
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US focus is to ‘stop the largest land war in Europe since second world war,’ Kellogg says
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US deal with Belarus was primarily on ‘ensuring lines of communication’ to Putin, not freeing prisoners, Kellogg says
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‘No decision’ made on reviewing US training posture in Baltics, CEE, Latvian foreign minister says
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Morning opening: All eyes on European security
‘Have a look at world not as we want it to be, however how it’s,’ UK’s former defence secretary tells of his classes from Russian invasion on Ukraine
Former UK defence minister Ben Wallace is now talking on the Warsaw Safety Discussion board, discussing his classes from main the UK’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
He says “the primary lesson is we should take a look at the world not as we want it to be, however in the best way it’s.”
He additionally calls out the preliminary reactions in some international locations, as he says:
“I keep in mind going to Mariupol once I was the federal government safety minister, not lengthy after the Salisbury poisoning, … I keep in mind, when it got here to even early navy help to Ukraine, there was a rustic in Europe that wouldn’t even permit diggers to be exported to Ukraine – diggers, not weapons, not missiles, however diggers! – simply because that might have been probably provocative to President Putin.”
He says the opposite problem is to “to vary a type of mindset that I feel has change into frighteningly endemic in our international ministries round Europe, which is, we take a look at our adversaries as if they’re the identical as us.”
“I keep in mind one senior member of an intelligence service in Europe saying to me that Putin wouldn’t invade as a result of it wouldn’t be logical. Nicely, no, it’s not logical by any benchmark. What Putin has performed is illogical, disastrous inside nation, and has killed tens of millions of individuals. However these folks aren’t all the time logical.”
He continues:
“They’re not us. They don’t have democracies in the identical means, they don’t have checks and balances that we have now. And we have now misplaced that ability, that deep ability that we’d have had for the final, you recognize, tons of of years in the past or 50 years in the past, to recognise and browse your adversary. Learn the room. …
So then we needed to transfer to this stage of accepting that Putin was not, you recognize, what we’d suppose he’s, after which doing one thing about it. And there have been lots of people on this nation and within the east of Europe who had been warning us for a few years, and other people weren’t listening.”
Finland to assist Denmark elevate its defences forward of two European summits, president Stubb says
Miranda Bryant
Nordic correspondent
Finland’s president has pledged to assist to defend Denmark as Copenhagen prepares to host two European summits this week amid ongoing drone incursions.
Alexander Stubb mentioned on Tuesday that Finland had deployed an anti-drone system to Denmark and that the Finnish Border Guard would supply help.
Help offered by Finland, Sweden and Norway to Denmark was, he mentioned, “a superb instance of the kind of concrete Nordic cooperation we want at this time.”
Stubb wrote on X:
“Finland stands totally behind Denmark in its efforts to safe the airspace and countering hybrid actions of the type we have now seen within the final days and weeks.
To make this help concrete, Finland has at this time determined to deploy a Counter-UAS contingent to Denmark. The Finnish Border Guard may also help with its personal capabilities.
I see this as a superb instance of the kind of concrete Nordic cooperation we want at this time. Going ahead, we’ll hold aligning our approaches to countering hybrid threats and pushing the aptitude improvement in Europe.”
Putin ‘in his coronary heart of hearts realises he cannot win this,’ US Kellogg says
US particular envoy Keith Kellogg is again on stage on the Warsaw Safety Discussion board.
Talking about Ukraine, he says that Russia was “not successful this struggle.”
“I feel in all probability in his coronary heart of hearts he realises he can’t win this. That is an unwinnable battle for him, long-term. It’s not going to occur.”
Requested in regards to the latest incidents involving Russia in Europe, he seems to sign his help for the concept of capturing Russian drones or jets crossing into Nato airspace.
He says:
“The way in which you reply to one thing like this, from a navy background, I might say generally you elevate what is named the danger stage to do it.
I gives you an excellent instance. … Just a few years in the past, 2015, the Russians had a Russian fighter invade Turkish airspace. What did the Turks do? They shot it down.
Okay, that can get you consideration actually quick, received’t it?
Now, that’s what I imply about elevating your danger stage. I do know it’s the damaging factor to do. I’ve acquired it. I perceive that. However generally you must ask yourselves, the place do you go? …
Look, that is critical enterprise. For these of you sitting in uniform on this room, you recognize that.”
He particularly references Poland’s international minister Radosław Sikorski’s speech on the UN safety council, during which he warned Russia that Poland would shoot any jets down sooner or later.
“– So the Russians have been warned?
– I feel they’ve.”
Pressed about the right way to get to a trilateral assembly between Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump, Kellogg says “the best way you attain [it], type of like what Ukraine is doing proper now, is you make this nearly price prohibitive.”
He says that Ukraine is making progress on that focus on by “hitting the refineries, which reduce 20% of their oil manufacturing down.”
“We’re engaged on folks not shopping for … on secondary sanctions … on shopping for their oil. Sadly, some in Europe are nonetheless shopping for it.”
He argued that Russia “is a petrostate, and should you take away the petrodollars, they’ve an unlimited drawback.”
“I feel the calculus is on Putin, … and mainly the ache stage he’s prepared to simply accept,” he says, pointing to Russia’s rising frontline issues with the Russian military “taking tanks out of museums to convey into the frontlines.”
“I feel we don’t want to attract any extra pink strains. He’s acquired the issue, not the West, and he’s acquired to make that decision, not the West. The West goes to be it’s aligned very, very properly, and I’ve nice confidence in it.”
‘His drug is energy’: Lukashenko reaches out to the west
Pjotr Sauer
In case you are eager to know the dynamics between the US and Belarus a bit higher (10:08), right here’s an excellent story from our personal Pjotr Sauer, who not too long ago visited Minsk.
Since Trump took workplace, Lukashenko, an authoritarian strongman who has dominated Belarus since 1994, has been edging out of the diplomatic freeze, cautiously probing for area past Moscow, which sees Belarus as each its closest ally and a significant buffer.
Sensing a political opening with the brand new Trump administration, Lukashenko has repeatedly met US officers and even held a name with the US president, who has floated the concept of a direct assembly.
Some in Washington see Lukashenko as a possible interlocutor with Vladimir Putin on ending the struggle in Ukraine. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, has privately mentioned he locations a excessive worth on Lukashenko’s insights into the Russian chief, in accordance with a supply aware of the talks.
European diplomatic sources have in the meantime mentioned there are tentative discussions in Brussels over whether or not the EU’s coverage of isolating Belarus stays efficient, and if providing Lukashenko a means out of Moscow’s shadow ought to be thought-about. Belarus has additionally signalled openness to talks, the 2 sources mentioned.
Poland detains Ukrainian man needed over alleged involvement in Nord Stream explosions – report
A Ukrainian man needed by Germany over his alleged involvement within the Nord Stream explosion has been detained in Poland, RMF FM radio simply reported.
The person, a scuba diving teacher recognized solely as Volodymyr Z, was detained in Pruszków, simply exterior the Polish capital, Warsaw, the broadcaster mentioned.
Copenhagen residents to see ‘huge invasion of cops’ as capital prepares for 2 main summits after drone sightings
Miranda Bryant
Nordic correspondent
Copenhagen residents have been warned of a “huge invasion of cops” because the Danish capital prepares to host two back-to-back European summits amid rising tensions after greater than per week of drone incursions and accusations of hybrid assaults and sabotage.
Round 10,000 resort rooms are understood to have been booked for cops coming from exterior Copenhagen for the occasions, together with from Sweden and Norway.
Peter Dahl, head of emergency preparedness on the Copenhagen Police, advised DR:
“Copenhageners will expertise a large invasion of cops within the coming days. We’ll actually be noticeable on the street scene.”
The quite a few potential threats are “extremely advanced”, he mentioned, with dangers of demonstrations, terrorism and a “excessive” menace of espionage and sabotage.
“With as much as 60 heads of state and authorities and with the safety scenario we have now on the earth at this time, it is a gigantic activity.”
There would even be, he added, a widespread use of drones and as he advised that there could be officers positioned on roofs.
On Wednesday, the heads of state and authorities from 27 EU international locations will meet at Christianborg Palace through the daytime earlier than attending an occasion with the King and Queen at Amalienborg Palace.
On Thursday, Copenhagen will host a European Political Group occasion which may also embody representatives of Nato, the EU, the Council of Europe and the Organisation for Safety and Cooperation in Europe.
Home and worldwide tensions have elevated after a number of drone incursions throughout Denmark and the Nordics in latest days, together with at airports and navy websites.
The final time police confronted an operation of this scale was through the Copenhagen local weather summit in 2009.
UK, France, Germany, Sweden to assist Denmark improve safety after drone incursions
Dan Sabbagh
Defence and safety editor
Unidentified drones have disrupted Danish airspace on a number of events previously week, and Danish forces have to date did not shoot down any of them, which might permit an examination of the wreckage.
The UK, France, Germany and Sweden mentioned they’d assist Denmark improve its safety throughout two European summits in Copenhagen this week.
The capital is because of host EU leaders on Wednesday and the broader 47-member European Political Group on Thursday.
Britain has additionally despatched a counter-drone system to Denmark, defence secretary John Healey mentioned at a fringe occasion the UK Labour occasion convention.
Germany mentioned it will ship 40 troopers to Denmark to assist detect, establish and counter drones, whereas France will deploy a navy helicopter plus one other 35 troops. Sweden mentioned it will despatched a counter-drone system plus further radars, in addition to further police to boost safety on the bottom.
Former aide to German AfD lawmaker jailed for spying for China
In different information, a former aide to German far-right lawmaker Maximilian Krah within the European parliament was jailed for 4 years and 9 months on Tuesday on fees of spying for China, AFP reported.
The court docket in Dresden discovered that Jian Guo was responsible of performing as an agent for a Chinese language intelligence service whereas working for Krah, a member of the far-right Different for Germany (AfD).
US focus is to ‘cease the most important land struggle in Europe since second world struggle,’ Kellogg says
Closing the panel, US envoy Kellogg spelled out the US place on Ukraine, as he mentioned:
“The largest factor we need to do is cease the most important land struggle in Europe for the reason that second world struggle.
And it is a struggle of commercial power with over tons of – not one thousand or two thousand, we’re speaking tons of, plural, of 1000’s – of killed in motion there.
In Afghanistan, Russians got here out after shedding 18,000; we left Vietnam after shedding 65,000. We’re now speaking of the extent of lifeless and wounded on either side [that] have eclipsed one million.
Beautiful. And so I feel this struggle wants to return to an finish to a way.”
US cope with Belarus was totally on ‘guaranteeing strains of communication’ to Putin, not liberating prisoners, Kellogg says
US envoy Kellogg additionally provided a little bit of tasty color on the US relationship with Belarus, after a deal earlier this month to launch some political prisoners in change for loosening a few of sanctions on Minsk.
He careworn that the US deal with Lukashenko was as a result of “we all know he talks to President Putin loads.” “We’re undecided what he says, however we all know that he talks to him,” he says.
“However what we did, we established a relationship to make sure the strains of communication had been open so we might ensure all of our messaging was being handed to President Putin. That was the explanation we did it; we weren’t stepping into there initially to get political prisoners out,” he mentioned.
Kellogg careworn that the success in releasing some political prisoners was a constructive facet to that, however “the general goal of that was to not free political prisoners – the general goal was [to] discover a decision to one of the simplest ways we will to the struggle between Ukraine and Russia.”
He mentioned the US focus was on ensuring “the messages had been being despatched to Vladimir Putin are in keeping with the messages which have gone to different circles”.
“I don’t care if it’s Kirill Dmitriev, I don’t care if it’s [Yuri] Ushakov; I don’t care if it’s Lukashenko. The very fact is ensuring these messages come throughout,” he mentioned.
He additionally mentioned that US is not “naive” about Lukashenko’s rule, and “we all know if he releases one [prisoner], he in all probability picks up two extra”.
Kellogg additionally added that the cope with Belarus was to assist the state-owned airline Belavia repair their plane as “the popular possibility is that their aeroplanes don’t fall out of the skies,” however to make it clear they need to not use them for “nefarious functions” and flying migrants into Europe. “That’s the underside line,” he mentioned.
‘No resolution’ made on reviewing US coaching posture in Baltics, CEE, Latvian international minister says
Talking on the identical occasion, the Latvian international minister, Baiba Braže, was additionally requested about reported US plans to evaluation its help for coaching and US navy presence in central and japanese Europe.
However she insisted that “for now, no choices have been made on reducing one thing or eliminating one thing; fairly the other”.
“We’ve heard some good issues from Washington and that’s the best way we intend to proceed,” she mentioned, stressing the area’s help for President Trump “in his quest for peace in Ukraine.”
Requested to be extra particular about indicators she heard from Washington, she mentioned:
“They are going to be public after they change into public.”
The senior Polish presidential aide Marcin Przydacz agreed together with her, saying Poland “doesn’t have any destructive indicators” from the US.
“We’ve heard public statements [from] President Trump that American troops will keep in Poland, and with a little bit of strategic messaging in direction of Moscow, I feel, President Trump additionally mentioned there’s a probability for additional deployment of American troops.
We don’t know whether or not it’s going to occur or not. Additionally it is a job for us, for Polish diplomacy, to work on that.”
The US envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has distanced himself from his earlier comments on the US plans to answer Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s request for US Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles to conduct strikes inside Russia.
Talking on the Warsaw Safety Discussion board, Kellogg careworn he was merely speaking about public statements, and had no inside information of the method or the ultimate resolution.
However he careworn the importance of Tomahawks, saying it’s a “very superior missile system” and if it was authorised for use, it will “change the dynamics of any navy battle” because it provides one other layer of “uncertainty” due to its capabilities.
Morning opening: All eyes on European safety
Jakub Krupa
EU commissioners are assembly at this time for a “safety school” dialogue on defence and safety points, the place they are going to be joined by the secretary basic of Nato, Mark Rutte.
Their assembly comes amid rising considerations about drones showing in European airspace, inflicting persevering with disruption in elements of the Nordics. It stays unconfirmed who or what’s behind them, however nonetheless prompted a robust response within the area. Denmark, which is able to host two main European summits this week, moved to instantly strengthen its air defences to safeguard the conferences.
Earlier this month, numerous central and japanese European international locations additionally reported Russian violations of their airspace, most notably when over 20 drones crossed into Poland, and three MiG fighter jets violated Estonian airspace.
Talking in Brussels in the previous couple of minutes, the European Fee president, Ursula von der Leyen, mentioned “Europe should ship a robust and united response to Russia’s drone incursions at our borders,” stressing the necessity to press forward with constructing a “drone wall” to extend safety.
Nato’s Rutte agreed with the urgency, stressing that whereas the alliance continues to be assessing who – or what – is behind the drone incursions in Denmark, “with regards to Poland and Estonia, it’s clear that it’s the Russians.”
“Nonetheless, we’re assessing whether or not it’s intentional or not. However even when it’s not intentional, it’s reckless and it’s unacceptable.”
Von der Leyen additionally spoke about Ukraine, hailing its resilience and stressing it has ceded “just about no territory this 12 months”, regardless of persevering with battle. She mentioned the EU’s sanctions “are working” and the bloc will need to push additional with the upcoming, nineteenth package deal of measures in opposition to Moscow.
The EU has agreed with Ukraine that “a complete of €2bn will likely be spent on drones,” which “permits Ukraine to scale up and to make use of its full capability.” Crucially, von der Leyen indicated the EU will need to push forward with what it calls “reparation loans,” primarily based on the frozen Russian property – part of which will likely be used to fund EU defence trade, too.
She provided a bit extra element on how the scheme is meant to work, saying:
“The mortgage wouldn’t be disbursed in a single go, however in tranches and with circumstances connected. And we are going to strengthen our personal defence trade by guaranteeing that a part of the mortgage is used for procurement in Europe and with Europe.
Importantly, there isn’t any seizing of the property. Ukraine has to repay the mortgage, if Russia is paying reparations. The perpetrator should be held accountable.”
We expect extra safety discussions to return at this time, together with these taking place through the second day of the Warsaw Safety Discussion board, the place we’re going to hear from ministers and US particular envoy Keith Kellogg, amongst others.
I’ll convey you all the most recent right here.
It’s Tuesday, 30 September 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa right here, and that is Europe Stay.
Good morning.
