Digging into claims about crowd size at Trump’s military parade

In mid-June 2025, following the U.S. Military’s 250th birthday celebration parade in Washington, D.C., claims (archived) circulated (archived) on-line concerning the dimension of the group on the occasion, which fell on U.S. President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday.

Occupy Democrats, a left-wing media outlet on Fb, posted on social media suggesting that as few as 20,000 folks attended the occasion. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (archived) and former Trump presidential opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton (archived) additionally posted on social media showing to mock the dimensions of the attending crowds. Doug Blandry, a former Obama administration and political marketing campaign occasion supervisor, estimated (archived) the group at wherever from 80,000 to 120,000 folks.

In the meantime, White Home Communications Director Steven Cheung claimed (archived) 250,000 folks gathered for the celebrations, whereas the Division of Protection’s Fast Response X web page said (archived) attendance numbers had been within the lots of of 1000’s.

America250, a nonprofit supporting group to the U.S. Semiquincentennial Fee that organized the day’s occasions, additionally estimated 250,000 “patriots” attended the occasion on Saturday, in accordance with a company spokesperson.

Estimates from exterior the White Home within the type of media reports didn’t hazard numerical guesses however usually reported that fewer than the expected 200,000 folks had been in attendance.

It was not doable for Snopes to supply an impartial crowd estimate. We reached out to numerous specialists within the subject to ask for his or her finest approximations primarily based on imagery from the day. We additionally reviewed public transportation information from the Washington Metropolitan Space Transit Authority on June 14, which confirmed elevated passenger numbers close to downtown Washington, D.C., and Capitol Hill in contrast with the identical Saturday in 2024. The elevated passenger numbers didn’t solely account for all alleged 250,000 guests, lots of whom may have used types of transport aside from the Metro.

We reached out to a number of specialists in crowd-size estimation to ask for his or her estimates of crowd sizes on the parade and pageant and will replace this story if we obtain additional data. We additionally reached out to Harvard College’s Crowd Counting Consortium, which stated it was not accumulating crowd information from the parade and pageant.

Analyzing the proof

Steve Doig, a journalism professor and crowd-counting skilled at Arizona State College, described crowd counting in an electronic mail to Snopes as a “fuzzy” science.

Certainly, in a 2009 article about estimating crowd sizes for former U.S. President Barack Obama’s inauguration, Doig wrote, “In relation to precisely counting crowds, the slogan needs to be ‘No, we will not.'”

Although Doig stated he had not tried his personal estimate of crowd sizes on the June 14 parade, he did name Cheung’s estimate of 250,000 guests “laughable.”

An attendance of 250,000 would have put the Military’s 250th birthday celebration parade within the region of the 1963 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom when Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech. According to the NAACP, greater than 260,000 folks attended that rally.

Cheung’s estimate would even have exceeded organizer estimates for attendance on the occasion in accordance with the allow the Nationwide Park Service issued to America250 and the U.S. Military permitting them to carry the occasion on the Nationwide Mall and surrounding areas.

In accordance with this doc, organizers estimated attendance figures of 200,000 for the parade and pageant.

The NPS used to supply crowd-size figures for occasions hosted on its grounds however stopped after organizers of the 1995 Million Man March threatened to sue the service over its estimates for the occasion.

As for what we all know concerning the occasion itself, the schedule began at 9:30 a.m. and continued all through the day in accordance with the pageant program, that means parade crowds alone wouldn’t account solely for attendance on the complete occasion.

Livestream video and pictures from the parade route and grounds confirmed crowds a number of folks deep on one facet of Structure Avenue close to the Washington Monument.

Although he didn’t give a crowd-size estimate primarily based on accessible imagery, Dr. G. Keith Nonetheless, visiting professor of Crowd Science on the College of Suffolk in England, beneficial taking a look at transit figures from the day to see whether or not they mirrored a big improve in folks close to the parade floor.

In accordance with the WMATA database, entries at 9 Metro stations close to the parade and pageant grounds had been up in comparison with the identical Saturday in 2024 (June 15). There have been 11,000 entries at Federal Triangle on June 14, 2025, 5 occasions the two,204 entries on June 15, 2024.

There have been 87,500 entries complete at Archives, Farragut North, Farragut West, Federal Triangle, Foggy Backside-GWU, McPherson Sq, Metro Heart, L’Enfant Plaza and Smithsonian stations on June 14, 2025, in contrast with 49,200 on June 15, 2024, in accordance with the WMATA database.

A WMATA spokesperson added, “That is totals for the day, so consists of anybody who could have come to simply the Mall pageant earlier within the day and never the parade.” It was additionally doubtless that some folks traveled by different public transportation or non-public automobiles or taxis — and that others used the stations in query however did not attend the occasion in any respect.

Utilizing public transportation figures or taking a look at verified imagery is certainly one of many methods specialists use to estimate crowd sizes at occasions. Nonetheless informed Snopes that particularly with photos, the angle was vital as photos taken at head peak may typically erase empty area between folks and make crowds seem denser.

Trump’s historical past with crowds

Cheung’s estimate isn’t the primary White Home crowd-size estimate to be disputed.

Following Trump’s first-term inauguration, then-Press Secretary Sean Spicer berated media stories that the group on Jan. 20, 2017, was any smaller than earlier inaugurations. Spicer said, “This was the most important viewers to ever witness an inauguration, interval, each in particular person and across the globe.”

Spicer later said he regretted criticizing accurate stories that Trump’s inauguration crowd was smaller than the one at former U.S. President Barack Obama’s first inauguration.

Throughout Trump’s 2024 election marketing campaign, the then-candidate posted extensively about crowd sizes at rallies — his personal and people of then-Vice President Kamala Harris. In August 2024, Trump shared a false rumor that the Harris marketing campaign had digitally altered images to indicate crowds at one occasion at Detroit Metro Airport.

Trump additional accused Harris of paying for crowds at her rallies and the “Pretend Information” of underreporting crowd sizes at his personal rallies.

New York Instances reporting from August 2024 discovered “comparable” viewers sizes throughout six of Trump and Harris’s rallies.

In the end, it remained unknown on the time of this writing whether or not the White Home and America250 had been appropriate of their estimate of 250,000 attendees. Washington, D.C., transit figures didn’t solely assist this declare however doubtless didn’t account for all attendees. Official imagery from the occasion didn’t adequately present crowds from above to permit for counting utilizing conventional strategies.

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