NHL prognosticators don’t have a lot confidence once more this season within the Montreal Canadiens.
Final yr, the cash line was for the Canadiens to complete with solely 75 factors. They destroyed that quantity with 91 factors and a playoff spot.
This season, the over/beneath for the Canadiens is 90 factors. In Montreal, there may be excessive confidence they will attain that quantity, however across the league, the idea is the Canadiens vastly overachieved final season, and they won’t make the playoffs in 2025-26.
It was the customary problem in Toronto for the Canadiens on evening one. The Canadiens performed nicely, however the outcome was acquainted because the Maple Leafs received 5-2.
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Toronto Head Coach Craig Berube tried to get a beneficial matchup with the final change that noticed his finest gamers dealing with Oliver Kapanen. All of a sudden, after a terrific camp, it was Kapanen along with his first moments as an NHL centre with a large duty.
Kapanen answered the decision. The group is determined for a second line centre, and so they believed when camp broke that Kirby Dach was the go-to-guy. Nevertheless, it was Kapanen that received the job, after which he received his matchup in Toronto on for no objectives in opposition to.
Kapanen was requested to assist his linemates Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov play within the offensive zone. It wasn’t anticipated that he would add his first purpose in his NHL profession in his nineteenth recreation. It was a shorthand alternative for Kapanen as he scored with a wrist shot far-side from 20 toes.
One of many large positives on evening one was that penalty kill. The concern was that the membership would miss Christian Dvorak and Joel Armia, however they discovered on the primary penalty kill all of the solutions they hoped for. In addition to the Kapanen purpose, Josh Anderson had a close-in probability, and so did Newhook on a two-on-one with Kapanen.
The Canadiens had three superb possibilities with Patrik Laine within the penalty field for an offensive zone penalty, whereas the Maple Leafs had no possibilities.
All eyes had been on Demidov to see if he would be capable of use his superb stick expertise in recreation conditions. It’s one factor to excel at pre-season scrimmage shinny, however doubters stay that he can present the strikes when actual battles are on.
Demidov had a quiet first interval, however within the second interval, solely two shifts in, Demidov was giving the Maple Leafs defenders all they might deal with. He made area for himself in tight twice and had two wonderful possibilities. A pair shifts later, Demidov created one other sturdy probability.
The primary energy play unit doesn’t have Demidov on it. That may’t proceed. There’s a hierarchy on the earth {of professional} sports activities, and to desert it’s to make lots of people upset within the locker room. Nevertheless, identical to it grew to become obvious that Lane Hutson needed to substitute Mike Matheson on the primary unit final season, this season, it’ll grow to be simply as obvious that Demidov has to switch Juraj Slafkovsky.
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Demidov has superior imaginative and prescient, creativity, and puck expertise. It isn’t an insult to Slafkovsky who has executed nicely on the primary energy play unit, however a significantly better participant with the extra-man has arrived.
The Canadiens took the lead on the primary purpose for Zach Bolduc in his new colors. Brendan Gallagher took the preliminary shot, and Bolduc pounced on the rebound for a straightforward tally with Anthony Stolarz out of place.
Defensively, Mike Matheson very a lot loved having a world-class participant flanked to his proper all evening. Along with his consistency, Noah Dobson helped Matheson to really feel snug to carry the blue line, and to search out sturdy outlet passes. It was a robust recreation for the pair as they get to know one another’s tendencies early within the season.
The third pairing was additionally considerably higher than it was for many of final season. Alex Provider had an impressive contest. He knew precisely when to shut the hole on the push and meet his man early to ship hits, or recapture the puck. That allowed Arber Xhekaj to have a quietly efficient evening.
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Whereas Kirby Dach tries to search out his ACL beneath him with none concern to begin the season, it was a wonderful alternative by Head Coach Martin St. Louis to not give him probably the most troublesome challenges. Dach moved down the depth chart as camp continued.
It have to be troublesome for Dach to not play with concern that one other critical damage awaits as quickly as he will get hit and he falls awkwardly. Dach taking part in with two defensively accountable gamers in Bolduc and Gallagher was a wise alternative by the pinnacle coach.
The group’s purpose is to assist Dach discover his legs and confidence. That begins with a easy 0-0 scoreline on the finish of the evening. Dach doesn’t want objectives. He simply wants to complete the evening with a decent Corsi shot-share.
Dach was on ice for the primary purpose in opposition to solely a minute in, and he was on ice once more for the second tally when the Leafs tied it. It regarded lots like final season on the ice for 2 objectives in opposition to, and it could’t proceed.
Dach had a 33 per cent Corsi shot-share. It was the worst on the membership on evening one. It will be straightforward to see all this as catastrophic, however he needs to be given a while. Dach wasn’t even imagined to be prepared to begin the season. He wants everybody to be affected person whereas he finds his legs, and imagine that his reconstructed knee can deal with the grind.
Aside from the endurance required for Dach, there wasn’t a lot to be destructive about for the Canadiens. For the final 5 years, each time the Canadiens performed in Toronto, even when Montreal received, they had been dominated. One can now lastly see the ice begin to stability. The Leafs didn’t dominate like they’ve for thus lengthy.
Even with the game-winner in opposition to the Canadiens halfway by means of the third interval, it will be unfair responsible anybody. Each defenders misplaced their sticks on a Toronto counterattack. Hutson and Matheson had been helpless because the Leafs pressed close to Samuel Montembeault earlier than lastly scoring.
Sports activities may be merciless.
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One of many nice unknowns within the NHL final season was that the road with the very best five-on-five purpose differential was Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky. Most pundits didn’t even know they had been prime 10, by no means thoughts primary in goals-for and goals-against at equal power.
Why then did the very best line in your entire league not energy the Montreal Canadiens to shut to the highest of the standings? The reason being as quickly as they acquired off the ice, the sport flipped. This season, if St. Louis might get even just a bit assist from the second line, his staff will probably be dominant.
Kirby Dach was -29 final season. Patrik Laine was -14. Alex Newhook was -21. The Canadiens don’t even want constructive numbers from these gamers to vault up the standings this season. They only want them to not be a black gap of goals-against once more.
The third and fourth traces final season had been additionally constructive in purpose differential. The truth is, the fourth line led by Jake Evans was the second-best fourth line — behind solely Carolina’s — in your entire league.
There is just one gap on this lineup, however it’s a large gap. The second line is the main focus. It doesn’t matter whether it is Newhook who centres it, or Dach, and even Oliver Kapanen, however somebody has to determine this out.
Ivan Demidov is an offensive wizard, but when his centre can’t clear the defensive zone, count on Demidov to be neutralized by spending too many shifts close to his personal goalie.
Demidov is just not good defensively. He misses his project repeatedly. He must be complemented by good defensive linemates. He must be taking part in with the puck within the offensive zone. Lane Hutson on the blue line can be useful as nicely.
All season lengthy, search for the plus-minus of Demidov, Dach, Laine, and Newhook. If they’re plus-players or shut, it will likely be a stunningly good season. If they’re deep within the crimson, this marketing campaign must be carried by the Suzuki line once more.
By January, GM Kent Hughes may have an enormous smile on his face on the Bell Centre, or he will probably be questioning what number of of his prime prospects and draft picks he has to surrender to get a second-line centre earlier than the buying and selling deadline.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports activities author, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after every Canadiens recreation.
