Bull markets, bubbles and Swiftonomics

“It was one of the best of occasions, it was the worst of occasions, it was the age of knowledge, it was the age of foolishness,” Charles Dickens famously wrote. That aptly captures the dislocation between political occasions and market motion as we go into the subsequent week.

The U.S. authorities shutdown has stoked worries about its antagonistic influence globally, nevertheless it doesn’t appear to have dampened the risk-on sentiment throughout main fairness markets. The political impasse in Washington, D.C. appears set to proceed into subsequent week, with considerations the Trump administration may use the funding freeze to permanently slash roles and cancel sure tasks.

Whereas there was a lot analysis on what an prolonged shutdown may imply for shares, main U.S. and European indexes have been notching report highs. That comes as fund flows information from the Financial institution of America reveals $26 billion moved into international equities through the week ended Oct. 1, with a report $9.3 billion going into the expertise sector.

However amid this optimism, one other narrative is rising. An growing variety of market contributors are warning that bubbles are forming in components of the market, with some saying this might result in a bigger market correction.

Saxo’s warning is “do not predict, put together.” In a latest notice, the financial institution stated “the temper may hardly be extra conflicted. Fairness indices hover close to report highs … but shopper sentiment stays near historic lows,” encouraging traders to diversify to guard in opposition to instability.

There are crimson flags within the credit score markets particularly. Barnaby Martin from Financial institution of America instructed “Squawk Box Europe” their latest survey confirmed credit score traders have one of many “greatest overweights ever within the 20-year historical past” of that survey, warning there have been growing considerations about market bubbles.

Final week, U.S. automotive components producer First Manufacturers filed for chapter after revealing a $12 billion debt pile by using off-balance sheet financing. Famed short-seller Jim Chanos told the Financial Times he “suspects we’re going to see extra of these items,” warning the more and more expansive non-public credit score market has echoes of the subprime disaster.

A bubble that doesn’t appear susceptible to bursting is the one shaped round multi-award-winning pop star Taylor Swift. Her newest album “The Lifetime of a Showgirl” was launched worldwide on Friday following months of anticipation for followers. It follows her record-breaking Eras Tour that topped $2 billion in ticket gross sales alone.