“Sorry, I didn’t activate the heating,” says Yauheni Fedarovich as he enters a chilly, empty room the place a number of chairs are lined up towards the wall. “We maintain conferences right here throughout occasions or when dignitaries go to.” Along with the assembly room, there’s a small moveable workplace piled excessive with leaflets, paperwork and digital gear. Positioned only a few hundred metres from Alexanderplatz, within the coronary heart of Berlin, the RAZAM affiliation occupies this modest, rudimentary ‘cultural area,’ its exterior mixing seamlessly with the encompassing development zone and providing no seen clue as to its nature. Fedarovich gestures to a caravan parked throughout the road. “We’ve used it to assist new arrivals by giving them a spot to sleep,” he says.
Based in August 2020, the organisation describes itself as a help community for Belarusian immigrants in Germany, primarily made up of opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in energy since 1994. Yauheni Fedarovich, the organisation’s former treasurer, acknowledges that its actions have slowed lately: “At first, it was straightforward to mobilise folks, however since 2022 and the conflict in Ukraine, it’s develop into rather more tough. Individuals are reluctant to get entangled for worry of repercussions for his or her households again house.”
Lukashenko’s reelection on 9 August 2020 to a sixth consecutive time period sparked a major wave of protests following widespread allegations of electoral fraud from numerous observers and civil society organisations. The next crackdown by the authorities marked a pivotal second within the nation’s political historical past, forcing opposition figures, together with the primary opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, to enter exile to keep away from imprisonment. Whereas Tikhanovskaya obtained important worldwide media consideration on the time, which galvanised anti-government protesters, the preliminary momentum step by step pale, leaving the regime’s critics largely forgotten.
Polarised by the occasions of current years, Belarusian society is now divided between supporters and opponents of President Lukashenko. The opposition, for probably the most half, kinds the diaspora, which has settled primarily in neighbouring nations like Poland and Lithuania, in addition to in different European nations, comparable to Sweden, Germany and France.
Analysis performed by the BIELEXIL mission, funded by the Institut Convergences Migrations (ICM) and the Centre Français de Recherches en Sciences Sociales (CEFRES), estimates that between 200,000 and 300,000 citizens have left Belarus since 2020, out of a inhabitants of roughly 9.3 million.
Nevertheless, not all of those migrants are political refugees: “Most of the Belarusians who come to Germany accomplish that seeking higher job alternatives,” explains Alexandre Moissenko, head of press relations at RAZAM. “They’re typically in steady conditions and most come from the tech sector.”
The affiliation’s said goals embrace “lobbying for democracy” in Belarus and “offering help for political prisoners”. “We’re involved with round a dozen of them,” says Moissenko. The funds that the group raises by accumulating donations and organising cultural occasions, comparable to concert events, are despatched to the households of detainees.
“Every little thing is finished in secret, even reserving the musical teams. We don’t make it official in order that they don’t face issues after they return house. They’ll’t be seen as related to us,” explains Fedarovich. Confidentiality is essential on the subject of transporting the funds raised. “It’s dealt with by people who can journey forwards and backwards to Belarus,” he provides.
“Regardless of the dangers, they proceed to maintain us knowledgeable”
Not too long ago, state surveillance has tightened in Belarus. Since 4 September 2023, a decree signed by Lukashenko requires Belarusian residents to journey again to the nation to resume their passports, eliminating the choice of doing so at embassies. “This creates an extra threat for individuals who know they’re within the authorities’ crosshairs,” says Moissenko. “One short-term different for refugees is to acquire a ‘doc for foreigners’ issued by Germany, which permits them to journey inside the Schengen space. We help with the executive processes for individuals who need assistance.”
Sasha Romanova, now residing in exile in Eire, continues her work as a journalist and stays optimistic: “My passport is legitimate for just a few extra years, possibly there will likely be modifications by then.” Romanova is the previous director of the digital media platform kyky.org, which was shut down in Belarus in 2020 however now exists as an Instagram web page. “We advise our customers nonetheless residing within the nation to not ‘like’ or touch upon our posts, as even that might result in bother,” says Romanova. The identical applies to Telegram channels, the place the opposition continues its activism. Customers are suggested to delete their messages.
“I actually was labeled an ‘extremist’ by the authorities, which places me liable to imprisonment if I return to the nation. Their aim can be to isolate me – in any case, who would threat sharing the content material of an extremist?” continues Romanova.
Regardless of these threats, Romanova, just like the members of RAZAM, maintains contact with folks in Belarus, although she does so anonymously. “I’ve to say, I discover these folks extremely courageous. Regardless of all of the dangers, they proceed to maintain us knowledgeable in regards to the state of affairs on the bottom.”
This enthusiasm is tempered by the low participation of exiles within the political occasions organised by the opposition. From 25 to 27 Could 2024, the Coordination Council – a non-state physique established in 2020 by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, designed to signify Belarusian civil society – held elections to resume its membership. All Belarusians, each inside and outdoors the nation, have been invited to vote for the varied lists introduced. In the long run, solely 6,723 folks voted.
“This outcome is no surprise and could be defined in a number of methods,” says Belarusian political analyst Artyom Shraibman, a former contributor to a number of opposition media retailers who’s presently primarily based in Poland. “First, the Coordination Council just isn’t seen as an necessary entity by residents, together with these within the diaspora, because it has no actual energy – it’s only a group of exiled dissidents. Second, the method for participation was difficult. Folks needed to register prematurely, present passport particulars and submit private data. Many individuals have been uncomfortable with sharing their knowledge”. Above all, Shraibman sees this as an indication of widespread depoliticisation amongst Belarusians, “each inside and outdoors the nation”.
Makes an attempt at worldwide strain
In keeping with the NGO Viasna, based in 1996 and a member of the Worldwide Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), round 1,200 people labeled as ‘political prisoners’ are presently behind bars in Belarus. One distinguished prisoner is Viasna president Ales Bialiatski, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022. In a gesture of goodwill, on 3 July 2024, only a few months earlier than the upcoming elections, Lukashenko introduced a collection of measures lowering the sentences of a number of prisoners and granting the discharge of others. This amnesty applies to minors, pregnant ladies, single mother and father with youngsters beneath 18, and people affected by terminal sicknesses.
In keeping with the authorities, the early launch will likely be carried out over a number of months and can apply to round 1,600 prisoners. Because the announcement, round 200 prisoners have been launched, together with 23 in January 2025. Whereas many noticed this as a political manoeuvre to improve relations with the West, it didn’t forestall the European Parliament from passing a resolution on 22 January 2025 condemning the elections within the nation – earlier than they even befell – and calling for the outcomes to not be recognised.
This initiative follows a collection of actions carried out in 2024, notably by exiled commerce unionists who’re members of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Commerce Unions (BKDP), which was banned in 2022. The organisation has reported quite a few violations of trade union freedom in Belarus to the Worldwide Labour Group (ILO), of which the nation has been a member since 1954.
Since its 2004 investigation, the ILO has repeatedly known as on Belarus to adjust to worldwide requirements on this space and lately increased its pressure on the nation to permit for a humanitarian mission to go to prisoners.
“Our proposals have been accepted,” says Lizaveta Merliak, the previous worldwide secretary of the Belarusian Impartial Commerce Union of Miners and Chemical Employees, presently residing in exile in Germany. Merliak hoped that the accusations introduced to the ILO would immediate a response from governments and social companions in direction of Belarus, which was achieved via the European Parliament’s decision.
The decision condemns the function of the Federation of Commerce Unions of Belarus (FPB), the opposite main union centre, an inheritor to Soviet-era organisations which is intently aligned with the federal government. The Federation is accused of failing to guard staff prosecuted for collaborating in demonstrations and of actively campaigning for Lukashenko. Moreover, the decision cautiously asserts that the FPB “is believed to play a major function in organising the falsification of election outcomes”.
“We have been competing with them on staff’ rights points. At present, their members have overtly campaigned for Lukashenko within the factories,” says Merliak. The Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are additionally calling for sanctions, requesting the freezing of “the property of the entities and people concerned in working Lukashenko’s so-called election marketing campaign, together with the Federation of Commerce Unions of Belarus, comparable to Yury Sianko, Hanna Varfalameyeva and Valery Kursevich”.
Worry of instability and repression reinforces the established order
None of this prevented Alexander Lukashenko from being reelected to a seventh consecutive time period with 86.82 per cent on 26 January 2025. A complete of 5 candidates appeared on the poll, together with Sergei Sirankov, the secretary normal of the Communist Celebration of Belarus, who got here second with simply 3.21 per cent. As Lukashenko advised the press: “I don’t care whether or not the West recognises the elections in Belarus or not. A very powerful factor for me is for Belarusians to recognise this election.”
A far cry from the large-scale protests of 2020, a number of hundred opposition members gathered in Warsaw on polling day to sentence what they known as a democratic ‘farce’. Amongst them have been distinguished opposition figures comparable to Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and Pavel Latushka, the previous Minister of Tradition, now in exile. “This isn’t an election; it’s a ‘particular electoral operation’ designed to maintain Lukashenko in energy,” says Tikhanovskaya, alluding to the terminology utilized by the Kremlin to explain the navy invasion of Ukraine.
The announcement of the outcomes didn’t provoke a response corresponding to the one which occurred within the nation 5 years earlier. “Why protest towards a spectacle?” asks Shraibman. “It’s not straightforward to know what to revolt towards – there was no opposition, nobody whose votes have been stolen”. And, above all, “protesting just isn’t with out threat. The hazard of arrest is well-known,” he says.
Moreover, many voters who favour political stability view their vote as a approach to make sure continuity of energy, notably in gentle of the conflict going down subsequent door. The promise of peace is without doubt one of the mantras often employed by the nation’s leaders, and the ‘Ukrainian bogeyman’ performs a key function in home politics.
The electoral course of has simply proven that, regardless of help from European capitals, the Belarusian opposition has been weakened . “Nobody actually believes within the opposition figures,” says Fedarovich of RAZAM. In the meantime, Minsk is consolidating its place in a newly rising multipolar world. Russia and China have been among the many first nations to congratulate President Lukashenko on his victory. These ties have solely deepened since European sanctions have been imposed over human rights violations and navy help for Russia.
With time and exile working in his favour, it appears unlikely that Lukashenko’s opponents will be capable to mobilise to the extent that they did in 2020. Vital change now seems potential solely via a shift within the broader geopolitical context. On this regard, Belarus’ future is intently tied to the decision of the battle in Ukraine. Such a decision might reshape the regional stability of energy and, after three a long time of one-man rule, open the door to the opportunity of political change in Belarus.
