On September 15, 2020, the overseas ministers of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates joined US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the White Home. On a balcony overlooking the South Garden, they envisioned a area reworked.
UAE Overseas Minister Abdullah bin Zayed predicted that the accord’s “reverberations will probably be mirrored on your complete area.”
“For too lengthy, the Center East has been set again by battle and distrust, inflicting untold destruction,” lamented Bahrain’s Overseas Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani.
US President Donald J. Trump, Minister of Overseas Affairs of Bahrain Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Minister of Overseas Affairs for the United Arab Emirates Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan through the signing of the Abraham Accords, September 15, 2020, on the South Garden of the White Home. (Official White Home Picture Andrea Hanks, by way of Wikimedia Commons)
Precisely 5 years later, bin Zayed was at a special gathering — one which underscored how little the Center East had modified. Coming together last week in Qatar within the aftermath of a failed Israeli strike on Hamas’s leaders, senior officers from almost 60 international locations — together with Israel’s archenemy Iran, and the three international locations that normalized relations precisely 5 years earlier than — issued a joint assertion from the summit urging “all states to take all doable authorized and efficient measures to stop Israel from persevering with its actions towards the Palestinian individuals,” together with “reviewing diplomatic and financial relations with it, and initiating authorized proceedings towards it.”
5 years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, there are undoubtedly encouraging indicators of regional potential. On the identical time, there isn’t a query that ties haven’t met the heady expectations expressed on the White Home in 2020, and that the October 7, 2023, Hamas assaults sparked processes which might be inserting new strains on the relationships.
“Throughout the bigger course of, there are lots of occasions that distract us, delay us, cease us,” acknowledged Eitan Naeh, Israel’s ambassador to Bahrain till final month. “You veer off the trail and then you definitely come again — however you’re heading someplace. I believe it’s fairly clear the place we are able to get to, offered we don’t run right into a Hamas bloodbath on a Saturday and a world pandemic.”
Optimism and concern
The Abraham Accords loved three comparatively steady years till the Hamas invasion and bloodbath.
Ties moved forward quickly below the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid authorities, with each leaders visiting Israel’s three latest Arab allies. Lapid hosted their overseas ministers in Israel on the Negev Discussion board and agreements throughout a variety of fields have been signed.
Overseas Minister Yair Lapid is greeted on the tarmac by UAE Minister of State Ahmed Al Sayegh originally of Lapid’s two-day go to, June 29, 2021 (Shlomi Amsalem, GPO)
“We arrange the embassy, a staff, and the infrastructure for relations by way of dialogue with the management and with the heads of key our bodies there — the Overseas Ministry, the Finance Ministry, the prime minister, the king’s palace, the safety apparati,” Naeh mentioned of his work in Bahrain. “And naturally, the enterprise group, the youth. Dialogue with media organizations, journalists.”
However even earlier than the battle, there have been clear indications that the accords confronted long-term challenges.
In response to polling, they have been persistently turning into much less well-liked on the streets of Israel’s new allies. Washington Institute polling confirmed 45% of Bahrainis holding very or considerably optimistic views of the agreements in November 2020. That assist had steadily eroded to a paltry 20% by March 2022.
The development was the identical within the UAE. The 49% of the nation that disapproved of the Abraham Accords in 2020 has grown to over two-thirds as of August 2022. And solely 31% of Moroccans favored normalization at the moment, in line with Arab Barometer.
After assembly for the Negev Summit, Bahrain’s Overseas Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, left, walks with Israel’s Overseas Minister Yair Lapid, Monday, March 28, 2022, in Sde Boker, Israel. (AP Picture/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool)
When Netanyahu and his hard-right allies got here to energy in late 2022, ties shifted noticeably downhill. The Negev Discussion board was not repeated, and high-level visits dried up. No senior Bahrani, Emirati or Moroccan officers visited Israel.
However points of the general development have been nonetheless optimistic, and a few relationships expanded.
Morocco, whose normalization settlement with Israel isn’t formally a part of the Abraham Accords, didn’t expertise a big downturn below the present authorities. Although Rabat refused to convene the second Negev Discussion board over West Financial institution violence, Netanyahu introduced Israel’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2023, after which King Mohammed VI invited Netanyahu to his nation.
Israel additionally appointed its first-ever army attaché to the dominion, and the Knesset speaker and inside minister made official visits as a collection of agreements have been signed.
Overseas Minister Eli Cohen (left) meets with Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman Al Khalifa in Manama’s Gudaibiya Palace, September 4, 2023 (Shlomi Amsalem/GPO)
Then-foreign minister Eli Cohen’s go to to Bahrain in September 2023 was a transparent indication of the trajectory of ties earlier than the Hamas invasion one month later. He held well-publicized conferences with the prime minister, overseas minister, and finance minister, seen a pictures exhibit from younger Bahrainis who had visited Israel, and had a dinner with 250 native company, together with prime enterprise leaders.
Peace in a time of battle
It ought to come as no shock that the prolonged battle in Gaza and in different theaters throughout the Center East positioned new strains on the Abraham Accords.
As earlier than the battle, there’s purpose for optimism, alongside warning bells.
Regardless of common criticism of Israeli insurance policies in Gaza all through the battle in official statements from its Arab companions, Jordan is the one one to formally recall its ambassador from Israel through the battle. Bahrain’s ambassador Khaled Al Jalahma completed his tenure over the summer time, and Manama has but to nominate a substitute.
The Egyptian and Moroccan envoys have averted public occasions and the media, however usually fly between the international locations to proceed their work behind the scenes.
UAE Ambassador Mohammed Al Khaja has averted the media however has attended high-profile occasions. He sat subsequent to Isaac Herzog on the President’s official Independence Day reception in Might, and embraced Jon Polin as his spouse Rachel spoke about their son Hersch, who was executed by Hamas final August.
UAE Ambassador Mohammed Al Khaja (R) appears to be like on as First Woman Michal Herzog embraces Jon Polin on the President’s Residence, Might 1, 2025 (Lazar Berman/The Instances of Israel)
The truth that the brand new diplomatic relationships have survived two years of battle in Gaza, and the limitless stream of photos of Palestinian struggling broadcast into the residing rooms of the general public, is proof of how sturdy the relationships are.
Notably, regardless of the change within the tenor of the ties, Israel’s bilateral commerce has grown considerably with all three international locations. In comparison with the identical interval in 2023, bilateral commerce with Bahrain within the first seven months of 2024 elevated by over 900%, with the UAE up 4% and Morocco up 56%, in line with the Abraham Accords Peace Institute.
.The identical leaders who made the choice to normalize are nonetheless in energy, and they aren’t about to confess that they made a strategic mistake in 2020
Israel is helped considerably by the truth that its new companions should not democracies by which administrations change each few years. The identical leaders who determined to normalize are nonetheless in energy, and they aren’t about to confess that they made a strategic mistake in 2020.
Eitan Naeh, Israel’s first ambassador to the UAE, after arriving there on January 24, 2021. (Overseas Ministry, courtesy)
“If we managed to do one factor, it was to protect the relations — or to maintain the extent of dialogue as excessive as doable in any respect ranges,” mentioned Naeh.
The UAE has hosted a collection of outstanding Israelis through the battle, however principally opposition figures comparable to Lapid and Bennett.
Extra not too long ago, it has hosted authorities officers as properly. Overseas Minister Gideon Sa’ar was in Abu Dhabi in April to fulfill together with his Emirati counterpart, and Deputy Overseas Minister Sharren Haskel met mid-level ministers in Abu Dhabi earlier this month.
Overseas Minister Gideon Sa’ar (proper) meets in Abu Dhabi together with his Emirati counterpart Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan on April 6, 2025. (Overseas Ministry)
“We’re not speaking about an enchancment of bilateral ties,” cautioned Moran Zaga, Gulf scholar at MIND Israel. “All of the official releases that got here out of the minister’s go to have been concerning the Palestinian difficulty and the necessity to assist the Palestinians. Which means they’re leveraging Israel to help the Palestinians, and that’s how the statements got here out.”
The Emiratis are deeply concerned in all points of assist to Gaza, together with desalination vegetation, assist convoys, airdrops, and subject hospitals. Suppose tanks within the UAE have additionally begun discussing the nation’s position in post-war Gaza.
A Palestinian collects humanitarian assist from the United Arab Emirates, airdropped by parachutes into Deir al-Balah, within the central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025. (AP Picture/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Nonetheless, even the newfound Emirati give attention to the Palestinians is a chance for Israel. The UAE sees a nationwide curiosity in main in Gaza and the Palestinian theater. There may be an financial profit available from the help that may circulation to the Strip when combating ends. Taking the lead on reconstruction can be an indication of the UAE’s regional management. And, maybe most significantly, it permits the Emirati rulers to indicate the general public the profit to the Palestinians that their ties with Israel would convey.
They are often concerned in all points of assist due to their preexisting relationship with Israel, which provides them much more entry to Gaza than different regional actors.
Why take the chance?
Final week’s summit in Doha wasn’t the one indication that the long-term success of the ties isn’t assured.
Israeli vacationers are nonetheless flying, particularly to the UAE, however there isn’t a reciprocal circulation of Arab vacationers. Individuals-to-people initiatives have floor to a halt as properly through the battle.
Passengers for a flydubai flight heading to Ben Gurion Airport board their plane at Dubai Worldwide Airport in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, October 18, 2024. (AP/Jon Gambrell)
Most joint financial tasks have come to a cease, and if they’re occurring, they’re stored below the radar. Whereas companies concerned in areas that the Arab governments prioritize — protection, meals tech, cybersecurity — are transferring ahead with offers, others are trying elsewhere.
“When you don’t want Israel for it, why take the chance?” requested Joshua Krasna, Director of the Heart for Rising Vitality Politics within the Center East.
“The profile of the connection goes to get even decrease than it’s been up till now,” he warned.
The brand new Iran
Israel has at all times seen its army and intelligence may as a number one purpose for Arab international locations to hunt ties with the Jewish state. It has led the army battle towards Iranian affect within the area for years, and since October 7, Israel has loved gorgeous success in weakening the Islamic Republic and its proxies.
“A robust Israel is a bonus for the area,” mentioned Naeh. “I believe they perceive that. Who actually advantages from a weak Israel?”
Individuals move in entrance of the Syrian Protection Ministry constructing that was closely broken by Israeli airstrikes in Damascus, Syria, July 17, 2025. (AP/Ghaith Alsayed)
However Israel may now be overplaying that hand.
Israel’s Arab companions understood why it went to battle in Gaza and in Lebanon, and why it carried out strikes towards the Houthis in Yemen.
Whereas they have been completely satisfied to see Israel reduce down Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear program through the operation in June, Israel’s Gulf companions feared that Iran might activate them to attempt to power the US to rein in Israel.
Israel’s July strikes close to the Syrian presidential palace to power the brand new authorities in Damascus to guard the Druze in Suweida have been additionally regarding, particularly because the pro-Western bloc within the Center East works to shore up the Ahmed al-Sharaa authorities, and whereas Israel was in quiet talks with Damascus.
The Qatar strike crossed the road. It was an Israeli assault on a non-enemy state, one with a decades-long historical past of ties with Israel.
“From their perspective, Israel is a free cannon within the area,” mentioned Krasna. “Israel has externalized its safety issues and now sees itself as being permitted to make use of power wherever it feels its pursuits are threatened all through the area, and with out very a lot diplomatic consideration.”
This body seize taken from an AFPTV footage reveals smoke billowing after an Israeli strike in Doha’s capital, Qatar, on September 9, 2025. (Picture by Jacqueline PENNEY / AFPTV / AFP)
“The post-Oct. 7 army campaigns — spanning Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and culminating in Israel’s historic direct strike on Iran — have led many Gulf officers to conclude that Israel now not seeks mere deterrence, however fairly dominance,” wrote Emirati researcher Mohammed Baharoon and Center East Institute Alex Vatanka.
“The Iranian risk has been drastically diminished whereas Israel presents a brand new problem of its personal to regional stability, elevating elementary questions concerning the accords.”
The regional companions even surprise how far post-October 7 Israel is prepared to go. “If Israel decides that there’s one thing threatening in Abu Dhabi or Dubai, who’s to stop them from appearing there?” requested Krasna.
And there’s a rising concern that Israel’s Arab companions can pay the value for Israel’s strikes in Iran and throughout the Center East.
The chance that Israel might annex elements of the West Financial institution in response to this week’s wave of Western recognition of a Palestinian state is an additional purpose for regional leaders to fret — not solely about them being pressured to take some motion towards Israel, but in addition concerning the potential of Israel’s leaders to beat the tactical issues of coalition politics to advance a imaginative and prescient of a steady and reformed Center East. Israel made peace with autocratic kingdoms and emirates, and their tolerance for the calls for of messy democratic politics is proscribed.
Regardless of all of the challenges, nevertheless, Israeli diplomats are assured that they’ll transfer issues ahead once more… as soon as the battle ends.
“Foundations have been laid,” mentioned Naeh. “We are going to, after all, have to nurture this anew. We’ll have to rebuild. We’ll want endurance.”
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