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President Donald Trump brokered an historic ceasefire settlement between Israel and Iran on Monday, marking a dramatic pause in essentially the most important navy confrontation between the 2 foes.
The Monday night announcement took impact 12 hours later, following a timeline designed to permit ultimate navy maneuvers on each side. Nevertheless, a barrage of Iranian missile hearth within the hours that adopted left many Israelis questioning whether or not the truce had already been violated.
In an interview with Fox Information Digital, John Spencer, govt director of the City Warfare Institute, mentioned such delayed implementation shouldn’t be uncommon. “It’s laborious to show issues off on a swap. You’ve gotten plane in flight. You’ve gotten forces in place,” he defined.
TRUMP BROKERS IRAN CEASEFIRE AS EXPERTS SAY REGIME’S ARSENAL IS SHATTERED BUT THREAT REMAINS
President Donald Trump speaks with reporters on the Israel-Iran ceasefire earlier than boarding Marine One on the South Garden of the White Home on Tuesday, June 24, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (AP Photograph/Evan Vucci)
Spencer described the U.S. operation as historic.
“What’s historic is that the U.S. carried out a restricted operation on nuclear targets with zero losses—no pilot, no tools—and helped Israel in a approach solely America might. Nuclear proliferation is nonpartisan, and this was an apolitical win.” Even after Iran struck a U.S. base in Qatar, he added, “the President confirmed immense restraint and stored give attention to the broader objective: stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and persevering with its terror marketing campaign.”
Regardless of the violence that adopted the announcement — together with an Iranian strike that killed 4 civilians in Israel — Spencer believes the ceasefire will maintain. “Each international locations have now mentioned we’re completely going to do it,” he mentioned. “And sure, President Trump could be very atypical in the way in which he communicates with the ceasefire… with the ‘don’t drop a single bomb.’“
To grasp how ceasefires like this unfold, Spencer pointed to 5 historic precedents marked by delayed activation, phased targets, and a ultimate window for navy positioning.
An Israeli fighter jet takes off to launch airstrikes in opposition to the Houthis in Yemen. (IDF)
Korean Conflict Armistice (1953)
Signed on July 27, 1953, the armistice that ended the Korean Conflict was structured with a deliberate 12-hour delay earlier than taking impact. “This allowed ultimate navy actions earlier than a synchronized halt,” Spencer mentioned — a mannequin the Israel-Iran ceasefire carefully echoes.
A tour group visits the Korean Conflict Memorial on Veterans Day in Washington, D.C.
Yom Kippur Conflict Ceasefire (1973)
Then-Israeli Protection Minister, Common Moshe Dajan, left, with then-Main Common Ariel Sharon stand on the Egyptian facet of the Suez Canal throughout the 4th Israeli-Arab Conflict on Oct. 18, 1973. (Photograph by UPI/image alliance through Getty Photos)
Spencer famous that in 1973, Israel used the ultimate hours earlier than a U.N.-brokered ceasefire to reposition forces. “Israel made a bunch of strikes in these final hours… to incorporate encircling the Third Military, shifting on Suez Metropolis,” he mentioned, referencing his case examine on the Battle of Suez Metropolis.
TRUMP ANNOUNCES HISTORIC IRAN AND ISRAEL CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT TO END ’12 DAY WAR’
Dayton Accords (1995)
A Bosnian girl walks amongst gravestones at Memorial Heart Potocari close to Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 20, 2016. (AP Photograph/Amel Emric)
Ending the Bosnian Conflict, the U.S.-brokered Dayton Peace Accords established a phased timeline for troop withdrawals and political agreements. “That was a U.N., a number of international locations signing into an settlement of what each side would and wouldn’t do,” Spencer defined, contrasting it with the looser phrases of the present Israel-Iran ceasefire.
Israel-Hamas Ceasefires (2014)
Smoke rises over buildings within the north-east of Gaza Metropolis after a missile fired from Gaza landed in need of its goal on Aug. 21, 2014. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP through Getty Picture)
Spencer additionally drew parallels to the 2014 struggle in Gaza. “Hamas would say, ‘Okay, we would like a ceasefire… simply till the subsequent time they break the ceasefire,’” he mentioned. A lot of these agreements had 12- to 72-hour activation delays, comparable to what’s now seen with Iran.
Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Proposals
Servicemen of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade hearth a French MO-120-RT heavy mortar on the Russian forces on the entrance line close to the town of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk area on Wednesday, Could 22, 2024. (Iryna Rybakova through AP)
Much more lately, throughout the ongoing Russia-Ukraine struggle, ceasefires have been usually temporary and symbolic. “Putin mentioned, ‘I need three days so I can do my parade,’” Spencer remarked, highlighting how short-term pauses can serve each strategic and political wants.
Whereas previous ceasefires have been designed to sluggish escalation, Spencer sees this one as a part of a broader strategic doctrine. “To assist Israel in a approach solely United States might, that must be nonpartisan,” he mentioned. “For the USA to do a really restricted operation, with out a single lack of American life… that’s distinctive.”
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Rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, on Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Crimson Crescent Society through AP)
Spencer described the ceasefire as “an off-ramp” for each side. “Ceasefire right here signifies that each side will cease capturing at one another. It doesn’t imply that Iran will cease chanting ‘Loss of life to America and dying to Israel,’” he mentioned. “However the operations and hostilities have stopped.”
Regardless of the shortage of formal phrases or worldwide enforcement, Spencer believes the settlement created a brand new precedent. “This established a brand new doctrine,” he mentioned, citing Israel’s capacity to dominate Iranian skies and the U.S. response to nuclear proliferation threats. “If Iran decides to rebuild some websites someplace, the threats shall be extra current than ever.”
Spencer concluded, “It’s a win. When purple strains are actually purple strains, they’re efficient at deterrence.”
