Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld
Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
The
Crucial Threats Undertaking (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute and
the Institute for the Examine of Struggle (ISW) publish the Iran Replace, which
supplies insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored actions that
undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and pursuits.
CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Replace each day.
Click on here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed management of terrain in Syria, and here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli floor operations. The
Syria map is up to date each day alongside the static Syria maps on this
report. CTP-ISW ended each day maps of Israeli floor operations in
February 2025.
Click on here
to see ISW-CTP’s interactive map displaying the whole strikes in Iran
since June 12, in addition to an interactive timelapse displaying the strikes
day-by-day.
Key Takeaways
- Iran is
persevering with to attempt to assess harm on the Fordow Gasoline Enrichment Plant
(FFEP). CTP-ISW beforehand reported that imagery from June 28 and 29
confirmed an excavator and crane close to the northern impression factors and an
excavator close to the southern impression factors at Fordow. A US weapons professional
assessed on June 30 that Iran could also be getting ready to ship cameras or
personnel into the craters to conduct a downhole harm evaluation. - Satellite tv for pc
imagery captured on July 1 signifies that Iran has at the least partially
crammed the three southern impression factors and lined one of many northern
impression factors with a brief cowl. A US weapons professional recommended that
Iran could search to stop supplies and personnel from falling into the
craters whereas Iran conducts battle harm assessments across the website.
Satellite tv for pc imagery captured on July 1 additionally reveals that Iran has cleared
the environment of a tunnel entrance close to the southern impression factors to
allow automobile entry to the tunnel. - The Iranian Parliament
authorized an unmanned aerial automobile (UAV) regulation on June 29 that goals to
shut the “essential authorized and operational gaps” that enabled Israel to
conduct drone operations at first of the Israel-Iran Struggle. Mossad
established a secret drone base in Iranian territory previous to the conflict
that Israel used to focus on Iranian air defenses and missile launchers at
the beginning of the conflict. The Iranian Parliament additionally launched a
nine-article regulation on June 29 that labels any intelligence, espionage, or
operational cooperation with Israel, america, or different
“hostile” actors as “corruption on earth,” which is against the law punishable
by demise. These safety measures are in keeping with CTP-ISW’s earlier
evaluation that the Iranian regime is prioritizing regime stability
following the Israel-Iran Struggle.
Iran is continuous to attempt to assess harm on the Fordow Gasoline Enrichment Plant (FFEP).
Commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery captured on June 29 and 30
confirmed Iranian heavy tools, together with bulldozers and excavators,
close to two clusters of impression factors at Fordow.[1]
CTP-ISW beforehand reported that imagery from June 28 and 29 confirmed an
excavator and crane close to the northern impression factors and an excavator
close to the southern impression factors.[2]
A US weapons professional assessed on June 30 that Iran could also be getting ready to
ship cameras or personnel into the craters to conduct a downhole harm
evaluation.[3]
The professional famous that Iran will seemingly entry the southern cluster of
impression factors first as a result of US strikes made the bottom across the
northern impression factors “extremely unstable.” The professional acknowledged that Iran is
seemingly utilizing a bulldozer on the southern impression factors to arrange a
platform for downhole entry.[4] The professional added that Iran will seemingly decrease cameras into the crater first after which personnel, relying on the positioning’s security.
Satellite tv for pc
imagery captured on July 1 signifies that Iran has at the least partially
crammed the three southern impression factors and lined one of many northern
impression factors with a brief cowl.[5]
It’s unclear why Iran would cowl or fill the craters. A US weapons
professional recommended that Iran could search to stop supplies and personnel
from falling into the craters whereas Iran conducts battle harm
assessments across the website.[6] The professional famous that Iran would wish to rebuild the air flow shafts if it sought to renew operations at Fordow.[7]
Satellite tv for pc
imagery captured on July 1 additionally reveals that Iran has cleared the
environment of a tunnel entrance close to the southern impression factors to
allow automobile entry to the tunnel.[8] It’s unclear how far autos will be capable to journey within the tunnel system.
Iranian
nuclear security regulators have reportedly stopped sharing info
with the Worldwide Atomic Power Company (IAEA), in response to two
unspecified officers.[9] The IAEA’s Incident and Emergency
Heart had maintained contact with Iranian regulators since June 13, however
two unspecified officers advised Bloomberg on July 1 that Iran has
stopped sharing info with the IAEA. This report comes after
Iran’s Guardian Council authorized a invoice on June 26 that suspends Iran’s
cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran’s
nuclear amenities.[10]
Iran has traditionally restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, together with by
withdrawing the certifications of a number of inspectors in September 2023
and barring different high inspectors in November 2024.[11] The IAEA has not carried out any inspections in Iran because the Israel-Iran Struggle started.
Iranian
International Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi advised Western media on July 1
that Iran “won’t simply again down from enrichment.”[12]
This assertion is in keeping with CTP-ISW’s evaluation that Iranian
officers haven’t relaxed their negotiating place on the US demand
for zero uranium enrichment.
The Iranian authorities has
imposed safety measures on Iranians to counter Israeli drone warfare,
however these measures are unlikely to realize the targets they’re meant
to realize. The Iranian Parliament authorized an unmanned aerial
automobile (UAV) regulation on June 29 that goals to shut the “essential authorized and
operational gaps” that enabled Israel to conduct drone operations at
the start of the Israel-Iran Struggle.[13]
Mossad established a secret drone base in Iranian territory previous to
the conflict that Israel used to focus on Iranian air defenses and missile
launchers at the beginning of the conflict.[14]
Iranian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Brigadier Common Reza Talaei Nik
acknowledged that Israel took intensive benefit of the “lack of efficient
oversight and steering in Iran.”[15]
The brand new regulation prohibits international nationals from being concerned within the
manufacturing, import, export, and operation of UAVs. The regulation additionally mandates
that drone homeowners have correct registration, permits, monitoring methods,
and insurance coverage.[16]
It’s unlikely that Iran will be capable to efficiently counter drone
operations within the close to time period, regardless of the brand new regulatory measures,
as a result of Iran nonetheless lacks an efficient counter-UAV interception community
and has restricted expertise in detecting low-signature, small quadcopters
working in its territory. Battlefield tendencies in Ukraine counsel that
with out cellular fireplace teams, Iran—like Russia—will seemingly wrestle to
defend essential belongings from small, low-cost drones.[17]
The
Iranian regime has additionally imposed safety measures to counter
infiltration and home political dissent, which is in keeping with
CTP-ISW’s earlier evaluation that the Iranian regime is prioritizing
regime stability following the Israel-Iran Struggle. The Iranian
Parliament launched a nine-article regulation on June 29 that labels any
intelligence, espionage, or operational cooperation with Israel, the
United States, or different “hostile” actors as “corruption on earth,” which
is against the law punishable by demise.[18]
The Iranian regime defines corruption on earth as “acts that severely
disrupt public order, threaten nationwide safety, or inflict widespread
hurt on people or infrastructure.”[19]
The regulation additionally bans Starlink gadgets, which might help Iranians bypass
censorship, and imposes jail phrases for anybody who possesses, makes use of, or
distributes these gadgets. The regulation additionally punishes people who have interaction
in unauthorized drone exercise or cyber sabotage.[20]
Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on July 1
that Iranian safety forces arrested over 50 people “linked to
Israel” and killed two others over the previous two weeks in Sistan and
Baluchistan Province.[21] The IRGC introduced that it arrested “mercenary terrorist components.”[22]
A few of the detainees may embrace Jaish al Adl fighters working in
southeastern Iran. Jaish al Adl is a Baloch, Salafi-jihadi militant
group that ceaselessly assaults Iranian safety forces in southeastern
Iran. The Iranian regime has beforehand accused Israel of supporting
Jaish al Adl.
The Israel Protection Forces (IDF) intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile earlier than it crossed into Israeli territory on July 1.[23]
The Houthis haven’t claimed the assault on the time of this writing.
The Houthis have launched a whole lot of drones and ballistic missiles
focusing on Israel because the Houthis started their marketing campaign to implement an
financial blockade on Israel in November 2023.[24]
[1] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/standing/1939758564681150876
[2] https://www.criticalthreats.org/evaluation/iran-update-special-report-june-29-2025
[3] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/standing/1939758564681150876
[4] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/standing/1939758564681150876
[5] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/standing/1940151936944370134/photograph/3
[6] https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/standing/1940151936944370134/photograph/2
[7] https://x.com/davidhalbright1/standing/1940151936944370134?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q
[8] https://x.com/davidhalbright1/standing/1940151936944370134?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q
[9] https://www.bloomberg.com/information/articles/2025-07-01/iran-shuts-out-nuclear-monitors-in-wake-of-israel-and-us-attacks
[10] https://x.com/IranIntl_En/standing/1938173802958995930; https://x.com/PressTV/standing/1938204404081156141
[11] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/iran-withdraws-further-iaea-inspector-designations
[12] https://www.cbsnews.com/information/iran-foreign-minister-interview-nuclear-talks/
[13] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/information/1404/04/10/3346361/ ;
https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/information/8969912/
[14] https://www.israelhayom dot com/2025/06/13/revealed-mossads-secret-base-of-explosive-drones-inside-iran/ ;
https://www.timesofisrael
dot
com/liveblog_entry/mossad-set-up-a-drone-base-in-iran-uavs-were-activated-overnight-to-strike-surface-to-surface-missile-launchers-aimed-at-israel/
[15] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/information/1404/04/10/3346361/ ;
https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/information/8969912/
[16] https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/information/8969912/
[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30-2024 ;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10-2025 ;
[18] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/information/1404/04/08/3344834
[19] https://www.hrw.org/report/2008/09/10/last-holdouts/ending-juvenile-death-penalty-iran-saudi-arabia-sudan-pakistan-and ;
https://journalismisnotacrime.com/en/options/1368/
[20] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/information/1404/04/08/3344834
[21] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/information/1404/04/10/3346493
[22] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/information/1404/04/10/3346493
[23] https://x.com/idfonline/standing/1940100958077202915
[24] https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2024/12/briefing-on-developments-related-to-houthi-attacks-on-israel.php
; https://www.timesofisrael dot
com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-houthis-have-launched-40-missiles-320-drones-at-israel-since-start-of-war/
