Editor’s word: Moses Becker is a particular commentator on political points for Information.Az, a PhD in political science and an skilled on interethnic and interreligious relations. The article expresses the private opinion of the writer and will not coincide with the view of News.Az.
The ceasefire declared on June 23, 2025, by U.S. President Donald Trump between Israel and Iran has lastly taken impact. After twelve days of intense aerial bombardments and retaliatory strikes, each side agreed to pause the preventing and provides diplomacy an opportunity. However whereas the weapons have briefly fallen silent, the political noise continues to rise.
Rising from what many suspect was a deep underground bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appeared—or was projected—to deliver a speech hailing an unconditional victory over the “Zionist enemy” and the US. No proof of such a victory was offered. Some intelligence sources speculate that the tackle was an AI-generated simulation, given the opaque circumstances surrounding Khamenei’s look.
President Donald Trump, in a sharply worded Truth Social post, dismissed the declare as absurd: “You’re a man of deep religion, drastically revered in your nation—however it’s essential to converse the reality. You suffered a crushing defeat.” Trump went additional, stating that he had personally saved Khamenei from what he described as “a horrible and shameful demise” deliberate by Israeli intelligence. “I knew precisely the place he was,” Trump wrote, “however I prevented Israel and U.S. forces from eliminating him.”
Tehran at present resembles a theater of the absurd. The Islamic Republic is sinking deeper into political chaos. The current battle uncovered the fragility and ineffectiveness of Iran’s navy defenses. Not a single Iranian Air Drive fighter took to the skies. The regime’s vaunted air protection system was completely impotent within the face of Israel’s aerial superiority. Israeli jets operated over Iranian territory with near-total impunity.
On the worldwide stage, Iran discovered itself alone. Whereas some nations expressed delicate sympathy or issued condemnations of Israel, no nation rose in severe protection of Tehran. The Islamic regime is now extra remoted than ever. This isolation, mixed with the numerous degradation of Iran’s proxy capabilities, has reassured many Arab leaders that Tehran will assume twice earlier than partaking in additional regional adventurism. The Arab world has lengthy suspected Iran of exploiting Shiite communities to destabilize neighboring regimes—Syria and Lebanon being prime examples.
The Islamic Republic’s insistence on creating navy capabilities, together with its nuclear and ballistic packages, stems from this power sense of vulnerability. But, the battle has left Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in ruins. In keeping with current intelligence, key nuclear websites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have suffered vital harm. 1000’s of centrifuges have been destroyed, analysis amenities have been bombed, and categorized paperwork obliterated. No less than 9 Iranian nuclear scientists and 30 senior navy commanders had been reportedly killed.
The picture supplied by Maxar Applied sciences reveals harm at Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility after US strikes on June 23. (Maxar Applied sciences by way of AP)
The battle’s affect is important: Iran’s nuclear program has seemingly been set again by a number of years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, chatting with TengriNews, confirmed that restoring Iran’s enrichment capabilities will likely be a protracted and unsure course of.
But a ceasefire just isn’t peace. As Trump has emphasised, the truce is merely a pause. If Tehran refuses significant concessions on the negotiating desk, a brand new spherical of battle may erupt—this time with even larger power. For now, Israel is utilizing the lull to focus its efforts on eliminating Hamas in Gaza as soon as and for all. Ought to this marketing campaign succeed, stress on the Iranian regime will solely intensify.
IDF Chief of Workers Eyal Zamir said that the Israeli navy’s present precedence is the “completion” of operations in Gaza. In the meantime, Iranian Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied experiences of upcoming talks with the U.S., contradicting President Trump’s earlier statements. In keeping with Araghchi, Tehran continues to be assessing whether or not persevering with the dialogue is worth it. He additionally admitted that Iran’s nuclear websites sustained severe harm in the course of the battle, and assessments by the Atomic Vitality Group are ongoing.
On this context, agreeing to talks might be seen as a de facto give up—a transfer the regime just isn’t but ready to make.
Apparently, the 12-day battle has opened new diplomatic alternatives for Israel. In keeping with IDF sources, Israeli jets carried out over 1,500 fight sorties, intercepting 99% of Iranian drones. These operational successes have laid the groundwork for an growth of the Abraham Accords—the peace agreements between Israel and several other Arab states. Observers now speculate that each Syria and Saudi Arabia are potential candidates for normalization.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed this shift in a June 26 video tackle: “We fought valiantly towards Iran and achieved an important victory. This opens the door to dramatically increasing peace agreements throughout the area.” He added that now could be the time to behave—not simply to advance diplomacy, but in addition to safe the discharge of Israeli hostages nonetheless held because the October 7, 2023 Hamas bloodbath.
Picture: The Instances of Israel
Certainly, developments in Gaza are accelerating this transformation. For the primary time, native clans have begun resisting Hamas management, independently organizing humanitarian help distribution. Civilian opposition to Hamas rule is rising, undermining the group’s authority from inside.
In the meantime, White Home Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt revealed that full diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria could also be on the horizon. She disclosed that President Trump had met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of Syria’s transitional authorities, throughout a go to to Saudi Arabia on Might 14. One of many situations for U.S.–Syrian engagement, she stated, was Damascus’ willingness to affix the Abraham Accords. “We need to see lasting peace within the Center East,” Leavitt emphasised. “That is the one viable path ahead.”
Earlier than the battle, Saudi Arabia had been thought of the main candidate for normalization with Israel. However these plans had been derailed following Iran’s instigation of the October 7 bloodbath—an occasion now extensively seen as Tehran’s effort to sabotage peace efforts.
In keeping with Axios, Netanyahu is anticipated to journey to Washington quickly for a private assembly with President Trump. Amongst different points, they may reportedly focus on ending the navy marketing campaign in Gaza. “Trump desires to conclude this battle as quickly as attainable,” the report said.
In brief, the US is looking for to reshape the Center East decisively, guaranteeing that Iran—or every other hostile energy—can’t undermine regional peace and stability once more. However whether or not this truce marks the start of a real peace or merely a pause earlier than a extra devastating battle stays an open query.
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