Brett McGurk is a CNN international affairs analyst who served in senior nationwide safety positions below presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
CNN
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As we strategy Day 10 of the Israel-Iran crisis, the main target is on whether or not diplomacy can succeed and, if not, whether or not President Donald Trump will make the choice to use US military force to destroy what’s left of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — notably the deeply buried enrichment facility generally known as Fordow.
The state of affairs as of Saturday, two days after Trump gave two weeks to check diplomacy, appeared to have reached a gradual state. This contains Israel’s management of Iranian skies and putting targets at will, in addition to Iran nonetheless having the ability to launch missile barrages albeit in smaller numbers at Israel. Militarily, this equation finally favors Israel, whose place is probably going strengthening additional this week.
However that could be a tactical equation and doesn’t result in a transparent strategic endgame, notably with respect to Iran’s nuclear program. So the place is that this disaster headed? I see 4 attainable eventualities:
This stays the popular consequence. However after this week’s talks in Geneva between Iran and European allies, it’s not trending effectively. These talks went nowhere. Iran held to its positions from earlier than the disaster. The US was not current. And the complete backdrop — the Intercontinental Lodge in Geneva, the place the Iran nuclear deal was negotiated 10 years in the past — was paying homage to one other period.
There could also be extra direct engagements ongoing with United States and Iran (possible by way of Qataris and Omanis) however in need of that, the diplomatic monitor has no actual traction. That is unlucky, because it’s one of the best ways to finish the disaster — and all Iran must do is sign to Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, that it’s ready to conform to the proposal he introduced to Iran about six weeks in the past.
That proposal is reportedly a balanced one, leading to Iran giving up its enrichment program however over time and as a part of a global consortium to provide nuclear gas for a peaceable and monitored civilian-nuclear program.
Iran’s refusal to interact straight on this proposal each earlier than the disaster and particularly now could also be a deadly and fateful mistake. If there’s one off-ramp obtainable, it’s this one.
The US is continuous to position military assets within the Center East and can quickly have three service strike teams within the theater. This can be a huge present of pressure, and has not been seen since 2012, notably at one other level of stalled diplomacy with Iran on its nuclear program and with Iran threatening to shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to American sanctions.
Trump has clearly given the order to place and put together for a strike. That may assist reinforce the diplomacy as Iran should know on the finish of the two-week deadline, the US is ready to make use of pressure to render Fordow inoperable, and Iran has no likelihood of defending in opposition to such an operation. The extra the US seems to be gearing up for such an operation, the extra possible Iran may be prepared ultimately to make a deal the US can settle for.
CNN World Affairs Analyst says “navy maneuvers are getting in place” for US strike on Iranian nuclear facility
As Anderson Cooper and I discussed shortly after Trump declared a two-week timeframe, “diplomacy with a deadline” could be efficient and the buildup of navy forces serves the twin goal of reinforcing the diplomatic monitor whereas additionally making ready for a strike ought to diplomacy fail. On the finish of this era, Iran should perceive that it’ll not have enrichment services — at present, 10 cascades of extremely superior centrifuges — at Fordow.
That may be achieved diplomatically (most well-liked) or militarily.
Whereas Trump has ordered the positioning for a strike, it’s unclear whether or not he may ultimately order one.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned on Friday that Israel might have methods to take out Fordow with out the US. Which may appear to be “Operation Many Methods,” which I’ve discussed this previous week on “AC360.” Operation Many Methods was an Israeli commando raid final September in opposition to a deeply buried Iranian missile facility in Syria.
The ability was practically the identical depth as Fordow and naming the operation “Many Methods” was a sign to Iran that Israel has simply that relating to destroying deeply buried services.
I’m uncertain as to the feasibility of such an operation in Iran, nonetheless. It’s excessive danger and an unlimited distance. A nuclear enrichment web site can also be far totally different from a missile facility. However little doubt the Israelis are all choices right here and so they don’t need to full the navy marketing campaign with the Fordow facility intact. So if the People keep on the sidelines, anticipate the Israelis to attempt one thing on their very own on Fordow.
Within the wake of both of two or 3 above, I imagine Israel may declare the tip of main operations. Iran would reply, however from an Israeli and US perspective there could be an endpoint as soon as Fordow is dismantled along with the opposite foremost nuclear services at Natanz and Isfahan, that are already broken.
Wanting the three choices laid out above, the almost definitely course is the disaster merely goes on. That may imply Israel continues to regulate Iran’s airspace. It continues to strike targets. Iran continues to muster barrages at occasions, however its missile stockpile (and launchers will deplete).
This situation is an inconclusive finish with Iran nonetheless having huge enrichment capabilities however Israel hovering over Iran to make sure they’re by no means used, as fledgling diplomacy continues within the background.
My evaluation: I believe at this stage we’re almost definitely to see both choice 2 or choice 4 even whereas persevering with to do all we will to push for choice 1 — the diplomatic decision.
So, provided that the popular endgame is diplomacy, but with talks going nowhere, how may diplomacy be invigorated over the approaching week?
First, the US ought to clarify the two-week deadline is actual and that if Iran refuses to interact constructively, then a strike would be the inevitable results of Iran’s personal poor selections. That deadline along with a reputable supply to Iran — which has been on the desk since earlier than the disaster — stays the very best likelihood for a diplomatic offramp.
Second, is a extra artistic chance. Generally in a disaster, you need to enlarge the issue set, and right here — meaning Gaza. The Gaza battle is ongoing within the background of the Iran disaster. There may be now a deal on the desk backed by Israel for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza in trade for Hamas releasing half the dwelling hostages (10 of 20). Hamas has rejected that deal, but it surely did so earlier than Israel’s assault into Iran and the elimination of a lot of its Iranian backers, such because the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
In my expertise with Hamas, it may be much more versatile when its allies have suffered defeats, as occurred with the Gaza ceasefire deal earlier this 12 months following Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and a subsequent ceasefire deal in Lebanon.
Thus, one thought may be the 60-day ceasefire in Gaza along with a 60-day freeze on enrichment in Iran with an intention to seek out extra everlasting options on the finish of this two-month interval. Israel is in such a place of power it may be amenable to this and the US may assist dealer it as a way for defusing the broader Center East crises and in a fashion that doesn’t permit Iran or Hamas to regroup.
In any case, the quickest approach to finish the horror in Gaza is for Hamas to launch simply 10 hostages, and the quickest approach to finish the disaster with Iran is for Iran to just accept the deal that Witkoff proposed earlier this 12 months. There could also be benefit in making an attempt these collectively, notably as each Iran and Hamas are of their weakest state in years.
At backside, Trump has purchased a while and area along with his “two-week” deadline, along with a choice for a diplomatic decision. However now three days into that two-week interval, there seems to be little momentum on the diplomatic monitor at the same time as US forces proceed their huge buildup within the area.
