Seoul, South Korea – After six hours of emergency martial law, a whole bunch of days of protests, violence at a Seoul courtroom and the eventual impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea is now hours away from choosing a new leader within the hope of restoring stability to an unsettled nation.
From 6am to 8pm on Tuesday (21:00 to 11:00 GMT), South Koreans will vote for one in every of 5 presidential candidates in a race led largely by the opposition Democratic Social gathering’s Lee Jae-myung. He’s adopted within the polls by the governing Individuals Energy Social gathering candidate Kim Moon-soo.
The election – involving 44.39 million eligible voters – is predicted to see both of those two high contenders change Yoon. The expelled former president final week attended his fifth courtroom listening to the place he faces fees of main an rebellion and abusing energy attributable to his failed imposition of martial legislation on December 3.
If convicted, Yoon might face a most penalty of life in jail and even the demise sentence.
Participation within the election is predicted to be at an all-time excessive amid the political turmoil ensuing from the transient imposition of navy rule, which nonetheless resonates in each nook of society and has sharply divided the nation alongside political traces. There are those that nonetheless assist Yoon and people who vehemently oppose his martial legislation resolution.
The Democratic Social gathering’s Lee is at the moment the clear frontrunner, with Gallup Korea’s newest ballot on Might 28 inserting his assist at 49 p.c, in contrast with Individuals Energy Social gathering Kim’s 36 p.c, because the favorite to win.
Early voting, which ended on Friday, had the second-highest voter turnout within the nation’s historical past, at 34.74 p.c, whereas abroad voting from 118 nations reached a file excessive of 79.5 p.c.
Lee Jae-myung’s second probability
Within the final presidential election in 2022, Yoon narrowly edged out Lee within the closest presidential contest in South Korea’s historical past.
After his crushing defeat in 2022 to a voting margin of simply 0.73 proportion factors, Lee now has one other probability on the high workplace, and to redeem his political repute.
A few month in the past, South Korea’s Supreme Courtroom decided that Lee had unfold falsehoods throughout his 2022 presidential bid in violation of election legislation.
Along with surviving a sequence of bribery fees throughout his tenure as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province, which he claimed have been politically motivated, Lee additionally survived a stabbing assault to his neck throughout a information convention in Busan final yr.
Fortuitously for Lee, the courts have agreed to postpone additional hearings of his ongoing trials till after the election.
On the marketing campaign path this time round, Lee addressed his supporters from behind bulletproof glass, with snipers positioned on rooftops, scanning the crowds for potential threats, as counterterrorism items patrolled on foot.
Lee has additionally been joined on his marketing campaign by conservative lawmakers, his former opponents, who’ve publicly supported his run for workplace quite a few instances throughout the previous month, seeing him as a path again to political stability.
Individuals Energy Social gathering candidate Kim was served an particularly exhausting blow when his parliamentary colleague, Kim Sang-wook, defected from the social gathering in early Might to affix Lee’s Democratic Social gathering.
In response to polling information from South Korea’s main media outlet Hankyoreh, solely 55 p.c of conservative voters who supported Yoon within the 2022 election stated they’d again the Individuals Energy Social gathering’s Kim this time round.
Whereas such shifts signify the disaster that the mainstream conservative social gathering is dealing with after the political fallout from Yoon’s botched martial legislation plan and elimination from workplace, it additionally testifies to Lee’s enchantment to each average and conservative voters.
Future president faces ‘heavy burden’
“The occasions of the martial legislation, rebellion try and impeachment course of have dealt a heavy blow to our democracy,” stated Lim Woon-taek, a sociology professor at Keimyung College and a former member of the Presidential Fee on Coverage Planning.
“So, the brand new president will obtain a heavy burden when assuming the president’s seat,” Lim informed Al Jazeera.
Youth unemployment, social inequality and local weather change have additionally grow to be urgent points that Yoon’s administration didn’t sort out.
In response to latest analysis, South Korea’s non-regular staff, together with contract workers and part-timers, accounted for 38 p.c of all wage and wage staff final yr.
Lee has promised to champion business-friendly insurance policies, and focus on funding in analysis and growth and synthetic intelligence, whereas refraining from specializing in divisive social points such because the gender wars.
His stance has shifted significantly from his time transferring up the political ranks when he promoted left-wing concepts, resembling a common fundamental earnings.
Occasions on the night time of the declaration of martial legislation on December 3, additionally helped cement Lee’s picture as a political freedom fighter. A former human rights lawyer, Lee was livestreamed scaling the partitions of the Nationwide Meeting because the navy surrounded the compound, the place he rallied fellow legislators to vote and strike down Yoon’s resolution to mobilise the navy.
Amongst Lee’s most central marketing campaign pledges has been his promise to deliver to justice these concerned in Yoon’s martial legislation scheme and tighten controls on a future president’s capacity to do the identical. Lee additionally desires to see a constitutional modification that may permit presidents to serve two four-year phrases, a change from the present single-term 5 years.
Whereas Lee’s closest challenger, Kim, has agreed on such insurance policies and made certain to distance himself from Yoon, the previous labour-activist-turned-hardline-conservative has additionally stated the previous president’s impeachment went too far.
Trump, tariffs and South Korea’s new route
The election additionally unfolds as United States President Donald Trump has proposed a sequence of tariffs on key South Korean exports resembling metal, semiconductors and cars.
Within the face of these threats, Lee has promised to stimulate demand and development, whereas Kim has promised to ease enterprise rules. Kim additionally emphasised his plan to carry a right away summit assembly with Trump to debate the tariffs.
Lee, alternatively, has promised a extra pragmatic overseas coverage agenda which might preserve relations with the US administration but in addition prioritise “nationwide pursuits”, resembling bridging nearer relations with neighbouring China and Russia.
On North Korea, Lee is decided to ease tensions which have risen to unprecedented heights lately, whereas Kim has pledged to construct up the nation’s navy functionality to counter Pyongyang, and needs stronger safety assist from the US.
Lee has additionally promised to relocate the Nationwide Meeting and the presidential workplace from Seoul to Sejong City, which might be designated because the nation’s new administrative capital, persevering with a strategy of city-planning rebalancing that has met a sequence of setbacks lately.
One other main difficulty that Keimyung College’s Lim hopes the longer term chief will focus extra on is the local weather scenario.
“Our nation is taken into account a local weather villain, and we’ll face future restrictions in our exports if we don’t handle the fast results of not conserving limits on the quantity of our hazardous outputs,” Lim stated.
“The way forward for our nation will actually relaxation on this one query: whether or not the following president will draw out such points just like the earlier administration or face the general public sphere and head straight into the principle points which are deteriorating our society.”
The outcomes of Tuesday’s vote are anticipated to emerge both late on Tuesday or within the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Within the 2022 election, Yoon was proclaimed the winner at 4:40am the morning after election day.
With Lee the clear frontrunner on this election, the result might be evident as early as Tuesday night time.
However enhanced surveillance at polling stations this yr attributable to considerations raised about counting errors could also be a think about slowing down any early announcement of the nation’s subsequent president.
