Strong Exports and Investment Defy Tariffs

China’s April economic indicators, launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Could 19, 2025, spotlight the economic system’s continued resilience amid intensifying world uncertainty and exterior shocks.

Overseas commerce beat expectations, with sturdy export progress to markets such because the EU and ASEAN serving to to offset the sharp decline in shipments to the US, which had been closely impacted by the latest round of tariffs.

Whereas a number of key indicators, corresponding to industrial added worth and retail gross sales, level to a modest deceleration in progress momentum, there have been encouraging indicators in areas like tools funding and high-tech manufacturing, suggesting continued structural upgrading. 

Nonetheless, persistent challenges stay. Core inflation stays subdued, underscoring weak home demand and ongoing deflationary stress. As well as, personal sector sentiment and international funding flows proceed to point out indicators of warning, reflecting lingering considerations over the exterior setting and home structural transitions. 

On this article, we break down the newest financial and commerce information and assess the broader coverage backdrop shaping China’s progress trajectory in 2025. 

Overseas commerce stays resilient regardless of US tariffs 

China’s international commerce confirmed regular momentum in April 2025, regardless of mounting stress from US tariffs on Chinese language items, which peaked at 145 p.c. In line with the latest data from the Basic Administration of Customs, whole commerce in April reached RMB 3.6 trillion (US$532.5 billion), up 5.6 p.c year-on-year, a slight slowdown from the 6 p.c progress recorded in March. 

Exports rose to RMB 2.3 trillion (US$314.1 billion), marking a 9.3 p.c year-on-year enhance, although easing from March’s 13.5 p.c progress. In US greenback phrases, exports grew by 8.1 percentm, down from 12.4 p.c in March however considerably outperforming economists’ forecasts of just 1.9 percent.

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Imports totaled RMB 1.6 trillion (US$218.4 billion), rising 0.8 p.c year-on-year and rebounding from a 3.5 p.c contraction in March. In US greenback phrases, imports declined 0.27 p.c, narrowing considerably from the 4.5 year-on-year p.c drop recorded in March. 

From January to April 2025, China’s whole commerce amounted to RMB 14.1 trillion (US$2 trillion), a rise of two.4 p.c year-on-year. Exports climbed 7.5 p.c to RMB 8.4 trillion (US$1.2 trillion), whereas imports declined 4.2 p.c to RMB 5.7 trillion (US$796.9 billion). 

The destructive affect of US tariffs was mitigated by stronger exports to different key markets, significantly the EU and ASEAN. Whereas exports to the US fell by 21 p.c year-on-year, shipments to the EU rose by 8.3 p.c, with exports to Germany alone surging 20.4 p.c. Exports to ASEAN markets expanded by 20.78 p.c, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia every recording progress above 20 p.c. 

These figures counsel Chinese language exporters are more and more redirecting items to different main markets to compensate for lowered demand from the US. 

The steep drop in US-bound exports in April marked a pointy reversal from March, when exports to the US grew 9.1 p.c year-on-year, pushed by a surge in pre-tariff orders from US importers.

From January to April, common commerce (versus processing commerce) rose by 0.6 p.c year-on-year and accounted for 64 p.c of China’s whole commerce. Processing commerce and bonded logistics commerce additionally confirmed strong progress, growing by 6.6 p.c and seven p.c respectively. 

Commerce by personal enterprises grew 6.8 p.c year-on-year, contributing 56.9 p.c of the entire, a rise of two.3 proportion factors from the identical interval final yr. Overseas-invested enterprises noticed their imports and exports rise by 1.9 p.c, accelerating by 1.5 proportion factors in comparison with the primary quarter. 

Exports of mechanical and electrical merchandise rose 9.5 p.c, making up over 60 p.c of whole exports. Inside this class, exports of automated information processing tools and elements elevated by 5.6 p.c, built-in circuits by 14.7 p.c, and cars by 4 p.c. 

On the import aspect, crude oil imports rose by 0.5 p.c, however volumes of iron ore, coal, pure fuel, soybeans, and refined oil all declined. Apart from refined oil, the common import costs for these commodities fell throughout the board. 

April financial indicators: Sturdy progress in high-tech and providers industries 

Industrial progress led by high-tech and tools manufacturing sectors 

China’s industrial sector maintained strong momentum in April 2025, pushed by strong efficiency in tools and high-tech manufacturing.

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The overall value-added output of business enterprises above the designated dimension (these with an annual most important enterprise revenue of RMB 20 million (US$2.8 million) grew by 6.1 p.c year-on-year in April, accelerating 0.22 p.c from March. From January to April, the year-on-year progress fee reached 6.4 p.c. Among the many three main sectors, manufacturing led with a 6.6 p.c year-on-year enhance in April, adopted by mining (up 5.7 p.c) and utilities (up 2.1 p.c). 

Key subsectors additionally reported substantial beneficial properties. Gear manufacturing grew by 9.8 p.c year-on-year, whereas high-tech manufacturing elevated by 10 p.c, with each fields outpacing the general industrial progress by 3.7 and three.9 proportion factors, respectively. Manufacturing of recent and rising applied sciences additionally noticed sturdy growth, together with: 

• 3D printing tools (up 60.7 p.c year-on-year);
• Industrial robots (up 51.5 p.c year-on-year); and
• New vitality automobiles (up 38.9 p.c year-on-year).

Non-public enterprises led industrial progress with a 6.7 p.c enhance in value-added output. Joint-stock corporations rose 6.6 p.c, and foreign-invested enterprises (together with these from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) grew by 3.9 p.c. State-owned enterprises, in distinction, reported slower progress at 2.9 p.c. 

Nevertheless, sentiment was blended: the manufacturing Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 49 p.c in April, indicating a slight contraction, whereas the enterprise expectation index reached 52.1 p.c, signaling cautious optimism. 

Service sector expands steadily with sturdy beneficial properties in trendy providers

China’s service sector continued its restoration in April 2025, with strong contributions from trendy service industries. 

The providers manufacturing index rose 6 p.c year-on-year in April. Excessive-performing sectors included: 

• Data transmission, software program, and IT providers (up 10.4 p.c year-on-year);
• Leasing and enterprise providers (up 8.9 p.c year-on-year);
• Wholesale and retail commerce (up 6.8 p.c year-on-year); and
• Finance (up 6.1 p.c).

These outpaced the common service business progress, highlighting a shift towards knowledge-intensive and technology-driven providers. Over the January to April interval, the providers manufacturing index grew 5.9 p.c year-on-year, whereas the income of huge service enterprises expanded by 7 p.c within the first quarter. 

The providers enterprise exercise index stood at 50.1 p.c in April, displaying modest growth. Sectors corresponding to air transportation, telecommunications, web providers, and insurance coverage maintained excessive exercise ranges with readings above 55 p.c, indicating sturdy enterprise confidence in these fields. 

Client demand rises, bolstered by upgrade-focused consumption 

Retail gross sales in China posted regular beneficial properties in April 2025, with sturdy efficiency in items associated to client upgrades and the continued “trade-in” stimulus coverage. 

Whole retail gross sales of client items reached RMB 3.72 trillion (US$512.4 billion) in April, up 5.1 p.c year-on-year and 0.24 p.c from March. Of the entire, items retail accounted for RMB 3.3 trillion (US$457.8 billion), up 5.1 p.c, and catering income reached RMB 417 billion (US$57.8 billion), up 5.2 p.c. Particular product classes benefiting from government-led consumption incentives noticed significantly excessive progress: 

• Family home equipment and audio-visual tools (up 38.8 p.c);
• Cultural and workplace provides (up 33.5 p.c);
• Furnishings (up 26.9 p.c); and
• Communication tools (up 19.9 p.c).

Between January and April, whole retail gross sales rose 4.7 p.c year-on-year to RMB 16.18 trillion (US$2.2 trillion). On-line retail additionally expanded, with whole on-line gross sales reaching RMB 4.74 trillion (US$657.5 billion), up 7.7 p.c, together with a 5.8 p.c enhance in bodily items. On-line gross sales of products accounted for twenty-four.3 p.c of the entire. Retail gross sales of providers rose 5.1 p.c throughout the identical interval. 

Funding expands, pushed by manufacturing and high-tech sectors 

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Fastened asset funding (FAI), which displays investor confidence and future productive capability, reached RMB 14.7 trillion (US$2 trillion) within the first 4 months of 2025, marking a 4 p.c enhance from the earlier yr. Excluding actual property improvement, FAI grew by 8 p.c. FAI in April alone noticed a modest month-on-month enhance of 0.10 p.c.

Manufacturing FAI led with an 8.8 p.c enhance, adopted by infrastructure, which elevated 5.8 p.c year-on-year. Actual property funding continued to tug down the general FAI determine, declining 10.3 p.c. 

Funding within the major and secondary industries rose 13.2 p.c and 11.7 p.c, respectively, whereas the tertiary sector declined barely by 0.2 p.c.  

Excessive-tech sectors had been key progress drivers, with notable beneficial properties in: 

• Data providers (up 40.6 p.c);
• Pc and workplace tools manufacturing (up 28.9 p.c);
• Aerospace manufacturing (up 23.9 p.c); and
• Skilled technical providers (up 17.6 p.c).

Non-public funding grew by 0.2 percen year-on-year, however excluding actual property, it posted a more healthy 5.8 p.c enhance. In the meantime, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) recorded a 6.2 p.c rise in FAI, underscoring continued government-led help for long-term industrial improvement. Home enterprises recorded a 3.9 p.c enhance in FAI, whereas funding from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises surged by 9.2 p.c. In distinction, FAI from foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) fell sharply by 11.4 p.c, signaling warning or retreat amongst worldwide traders amid a posh exterior setting. 

Client costs stay subdued amid weak demand 

China’s client costs had been largely flat in April, with a slight year-on-year lower signaling continued delicate demand. The nationwide client worth index (CPI) declined by 0.1 p.c year-on-year, however edged up 0.1 p.c from March. Core CPI, which excludes meals and vitality, rose by 0.5 p.c year-on-year, indicating comparatively secure underlying inflation. 

Meals, tobacco, and alcohol costs rose 0.3 p.c, with notable shifts together with: 

• A 5 p.c drop in contemporary vegetable costs;
• A 1.4 p.c decline in grain costs;
• A 5 p.c enhance in pork costs; and
• A 5.2 p.c rise in contemporary fruit costs.

Clothes and housing costs grew modestly, up 1.3 p.c and 0.1 p.c, respectively. Costs in transportation and communication fell 3.9 p.c. 

From January to April, the common CPI fell 0.1 p.c year-on-year, reflecting continued deflationary stress. 

In the meantime, producer costs remained deeply in destructive territory. In April, the producer worth index (PPI) dropped 2.7 p.c year-on-year and 0.4 p.c month-on-month. Enter costs for producers additionally fell by 2.7 p.c in comparison with April 2024. Over the primary 4 months of 2025, each producer and enter costs declined by 2.4 p.c year-on-year. 

China’s macro coverage combine reveals impact amid world uncertainty 

In response to intensifying world headwinds, together with rising US tariffs, China’s central authorities launched a coordinated set of monetary and financial policies geared toward stabilizing financial expectations and supporting innovation-driven improvement. Led by the Individuals’s Financial institution of China (PBOC), the 10-point coverage bundle centered on injecting long-term liquidity, guiding market rates of interest downward, and channeling credit score to key sectors corresponding to high-tech manufacturing, rural improvement, and client providers.

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The coverage combine included reserve requirement cuts, structural rate of interest reductions, focused refinancing instruments, and risk-sharing mechanisms for tech financing. These had been complemented by new regulatory measures to enhance financing for SMEs, personal corporations, actual property, and international commerce enterprises affected by world commerce frictions.

In line with Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, these macro-level coverage measures have already shown signs of effectiveness. Regardless of a tougher and unsure worldwide setting in April, the economic system continued to broaden steadily, with industrial manufacturing, providers, consumption, and exterior commerce all sustaining secure progress momentum. 

Fu emphasised that the macro coverage bundle has not solely helped cushion the affect of exterior shocks but additionally highlighted the resilience and adaptableness of China’s economic system. He famous that stronger home circulation, coordinated coverage implementation, and help for brand new progress drivers have all contributed to sustaining financial stability. 

Wanting forward, Fu reiterated that whereas world uncertainties stay, China’s strong financial basis, coverage agility, and structural upgrades place the nation properly to handle dangers and preserve secure, high-quality improvement. 

The April financial figures present cautious optimism for the months forward, with the outlook already showing extra favorable because the US and China deescalate the commerce conflict and coverage help continues to achieve traction. 

The sturdy commerce efficiency can even function a possible bargaining chip for China in any renewed commerce negotiations with the Trump administration, providing leverage to counter additional protectionist measures or push for de-escalation. 

Nonetheless, the worldwide state of affairs stays advanced and unpredictable. It’s nonetheless doable that the US may impose extra tariffs or broaden restrictions on Chinese language items and know-how, which might pose renewed dangers to export progress and exterior confidence.