An aerial view of the 2021 eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma island. Cumbre Vieja may, in idea, set off a ‘Megatsunami’ with waves that would attain the US. Nonetheless, this state of affairs just isn’t at present thought-about possible.
Credit score: Shutterstock, Stanislav Simonyan
It’d sound just like the plot of a blockbuster catastrophe movie – however scientists have lengthy warned {that a} volcano on a Spanish island may in idea unleash an enormous wave that travels all the way in which throughout the Atlantic.
We’re speaking about La Palma, a part of the Canary Islands, the place consultants have studied what would possibly occur if a part of the island’s volcano, Cumbre Vieja, have been to break down into the ocean. May it occur? Technically, sure. Seemingly to occur anytime quickly? Let’s have a look at the information.
The volcano with a wobbly flank
The concern centres on the western slope of Cumbre Vieja, the identical volcano that erupted in 2021, displacing hundreds of residents and overlaying huge swathes of land in lava.
However the greater menace – based on some earlier research – is what would occur if an enormous chunk of the volcano’s western flank slid into the ocean in a single go. That collapse may displace an enormous quantity of water, probably sending large tsunami waves racing throughout the Atlantic.
This concept was made well-known by a 2001 examine led by Dr. Simon Day and Dr. Steven Ward, who warned of a “potential catastrophic collapse” producing a so-called megatsunami. They predicted waves of as much as 25 metres hitting components of the jap US coast, with extra excessive heights close to the supply.
“Our mannequin predicted waves travelling so far as the Americas,” stated Dr. Day in his unique paper (College Faculty London, 2001). “However this can be a worst-case state of affairs, not a forecast.”
Will it occur? Scientists burst Netflix’s large wave bubble
A Spanish wave so large it washes out New York? It’s the stuff of catastrophe flicks – and now, Netflix dramas. In a single current sequence, a household holidaying within the Canary Islands will get caught in a volcanic chain of chaos as La Palma’s Cumbre Vieja collapses, triggering a “megatsunami” that surges throughout the Atlantic and swallows whole coastlines. Gripping telly. Complete nonsense.
Prime volcanologists have weighed in to set the report straight – they usually’re not shopping for the large wave hype. “The eruption and subsequent speedy collapse of the island depicted within the sequence isn’t a believable state of affairs that scientists are involved about,” wrote researchers from the College of Liverpool and College of Waikato in The Dialog in January.
The science has moved on because the headline-grabbing 2001 “megatsunami” paper by Simon Day and Steven Ward. Up to date simulations, together with a 2008 examine by tsunami professional Dr Stephan Grilli, present that if the volcano did collapse into the ocean (which, by the way in which, is feasible however not going anytime quickly), the waves would attain the US East Coast at simply 1–2 metres excessive. That’s no biblical wipeout – that’s a tough day on the seashore.
As for these nearer to the motion, just like the Canary Islands or West Africa, waves may hit heights of 10 to 30 metres – no small splash, however nothing just like the cinematic tidal monster smashing by means of Instances Sq..
Scientists now consider any collapse would most likely occur in slow-motion, in levels, not as one big plunge. So, the probabilities of a sudden doomsday wave? Slim.
Consultants warn that whereas the Netflix drama would possibly make for edge-of-your-seat leisure, it additionally spreads misinformation. And when communities are nonetheless rebuilding from the real-life 2021 eruption, scaremongering doesn’t assist.
New 2025 analysis sheds gentle on magma motion
Simply when we thought Cumbre Vieja had been filed beneath ‘debunked’, science delivered a twist. A brand new 2025 examine revealed its magma began stirring as much as 15 years earlier than the 2021 eruption – a lot sooner than anticipated – and worse nonetheless, it will possibly transfer silently, with out triggering quakes.
Scientists have warned that whereas a Megatsunami occasion is unlikely, right now’s detection techniques would possibly miss the indicators of an eruption until upgraded. It pays to not get cocky.
So sure, Cumbre Vieja’s a volcano value watching – however don’t go grabbing a surfboard in New York simply but.
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