As not too long ago as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the thought of a brief cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month through which President Trump turned American overseas coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager no less than to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and america on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, advised reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “rigorously learning” the end result of Tuesday’s talks between america and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He mentioned he anticipated america to tell Russia within the coming days of “the small print of the negotiations that befell and the understandings that had been reached.” He raised the potential for one other telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Mr. Putin sought to indicate he was in command of occasions by donning army fatigues and holding a televised assembly along with his prime army officers charged with pushing Ukraine out of Russia’s Kursk area, the place Russia has made progress in current weeks. He directed his troops to defeat Ukraine within the area “within the shortest doable time,” a transfer that, if profitable, would deny Ukraine a key level of leverage in any negotiations with Russia.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes during the last month as Mr. Trump realigned American overseas coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from america and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his wishes for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he desires to finish the conflict as quickly as doable, Mr. Putin has signaled he is not going to cease combating till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine is not going to be part of NATO and that the alliance will scale back its presence in Central and Jap Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the objective of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some form of respite.” Russia, he mentioned, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the official pursuits of all folks, all nations who reside on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a brief cease-fire stemmed from the straightforward calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely surrender its leverage by stopping the combating with out profitable concessions.
However a Feb. 12 telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, might have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good facet, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, mentioned the Kremlin might be tempted to just accept a truce that will be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” with a view to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has saved up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russia’s overseas intelligence company mentioned on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, based on two folks acquainted with the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inside plans. Mr. Trump on Tuesday mentioned that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week, and he advised reporters on the White Home on Wednesday that his negotiators had been en route.
“Persons are going to Russia proper now as we converse,” Mr. Trump mentioned throughout a gathering with Eire’s prime minister. “And hopefully we are able to get a cease-fire from Russia.”
In an indication of Moscow’s persevering with attraction offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s overseas ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to 3 American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information persona Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and mentioned Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that america was providing.
“It actually is just not unattainable that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, mentioned of the 30-day supply. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, non permanent cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculus may be affected by Russia’s progress in current days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had mentioned he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it could refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area principally again in Russian palms, Mr. Putin not dangers dropping face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would depart Ukraine in command of an space of Russian territory, mentioned Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An extra incentive to agree, Mr. Markov mentioned, was to guarantee that Russia “doesn’t appear like a conflict maniac” within the eyes of non-Western international locations which have averted imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he mentioned, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, resembling a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine in the course of the cease-fire.
“Russia will very doubtless say, ‘Sure, however —,’” Mr. Markov mentioned in a telephone interview.
Russia’s fashionable pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce might ultimately result in a broader take care of america that, of their view, would betray the unique objectives of the conflict and ultimately result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the identify Alex Parker Returns, argued in a post on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would permit Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the following spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
