Donald Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris within the 2024 United States presidential election has signalled ladies’s rights – particularly the correct to an abortion – was much less of a key challenge than anticipated for voters.
This was the primary presidential election for the reason that Supreme Courtroom overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade court docket ruling, which ended a girl’s proper to terminate a being pregnant. Trump has repeatedly claimed credit score for that 2022 verdict, which was made attainable by his appointments of three conservative judges to the highest court docket.
The Harris marketing campaign made a lot of Trump’s stance on reproductive rights in a bid to woo feminine voters, notably within the swing states. Nevertheless, early nationwide exit polls confirmed that Harris had gained the help of 54 % of ladies, decrease than President Joe Biden did in 2020 when he had the help of 57 %.
So what occurred to the feminine vote?
Why was abortion anticipated to be vital on this election?
The Supreme Courtroom’s overturning of Roe v Wade in June 2022 was an enormous turning level for ladies’s reproductive rights within the US and sparked a large backlash from ladies’s rights and medical teams.
Overturning Roe had been a key marketing campaign promise that Trump efficiently contested the 2016 election on.
In mild of the uproar over the Supreme Courtroom’s ruling, Democrats anticipated the problem to loom massive this election, and Harris formed a lot of her marketing campaign round it.
How did the candidates marketing campaign on the problem of abortion?
Harris’s marketing campaign centered on highlighting statements Trump has made about abortion.
For instance, one advert that the Harris marketing campaign ran near the polls was titled Punishment, referencing an announcement by Trump earlier than the 2016 election through which he urged ladies who attempt to receive abortions needs to be punished.
Nevertheless, in 2016, Trump moved again from this place, clarifying that any punishment can be for medical doctors performing the process, not ladies present process it.
On October 29 this yr, Harris said that Trump would “pressure states to watch ladies’s pregnancies”. She urged listeners to “Google Mission 2025 and browse the plans for your self”, referring to a conservative coverage blueprint assembled by a few of Trump’s supporters however which Trump has distanced himself from.
This declare by Harris was deemed false by PolitiFact, a fact-checking outlet.
Finally, whereas it’s true that Trump and his Republican aides have been referred to as out for making sexist remarks about ladies, Trump made up for it by strategically distancing himself from the notion of a federal abortion ban within the run-up to this election, stating he believed it needs to be for particular person states to determine on legal guidelines about abortion.
As a substitute, he centered on rallying help among the many working class by specializing in financial coverage as the principle thrust of his marketing campaign.
Trump’s working mate, JD Vance, in 2022 mentioned he supported a nationwide abortion ban. Nevertheless, in July this yr, Vance mentioned he was aligned with Trump on the concept that abortion needs to be a difficulty that every state offers with.
If not abortion, what had been ladies involved with this election?
In line with a survey of feminine voters carried out by the Kaiser Household Basis and revealed on October 11, the highest challenge that emerged for ladies voters general was inflation, together with rising family bills. A couple of-third (36 %) of respondents cited it as crucial challenge.
This was adopted by threats to democracy, which 24 % of respondents cited, and immigration and border safety, which 13 % of ladies cited. The identical quantity – 13 % – cited abortion as crucial challenge.
The nationwide exit polls had been according to this.
In line with a preliminary nationwide exit ballot carried out by information supplier Edison Analysis, 31 % of voters mentioned the financial system mattered most in shaping their choice to vote whereas 14 % cited abortion.
How did ladies vote on this election?
Girls did vote for Harris however by a smaller margin than they did for Democrats in earlier elections – for Biden in 2020 and for Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.
CNN’s exit polls discovered that Harris gained feminine voters’ help by 10 proportion factors over Trump. However in 2020, Biden gained their help by 15 proportion factors, and in 2016, Clinton did by 13 proportion factors.
Whereas Harris made slight inroads with white feminine voters, Trump nonetheless gained them by 8 proportion factors. Traditionally, white ladies have voted for the Republican candidate.
In line with the CNN polls, Harris additionally gained 92 % of the votes of Black women, in contrast with Trump’s 8 %. This was up from Biden’s 90.5 % vote share in 2020.
Nevertheless, the Democrats misplaced help amongst Latina women this time. Harris gained 61 % of their votes this election – 22 proportion factors above Trump. However this margin was markedly decrease than the 39-point lead Biden had over Trump with Latina ladies in 2020.
What did Harris do mistaken and Trump do proper?
Voters had extra confidence in Trump’s capacity to deal with the financial system, and the Republican candidate ostensibly was higher at persuading working class and center class voters on his financial insurance policies. Harris then again, appealed extra to college-educated, higher center class voters.
White ladies with school levels tended to vote for Harris this election – 53.5 % did so – whereas 64 % of white ladies with out levels voted for Trump, in line with a CNN ballot.
“The Harris marketing campaign didn’t essentially do a very good job of explaining how her insurance policies would assist the center class, or at the very least that message wasn’t actually resonating with loads of voters,” Melissa Deckman, a political scientist and the CEO of Public Faith Analysis Institute, informed the Reuters information company.
Schultz added that this precipitated Harris to lose essential battleground states that had consistently voted for Democrats earlier than 2016. “Harris misplaced Wisconsin as a result of she misplaced the working class and didn’t win ladies, suburbs and younger voters,” he mentioned.
An early nationwide exit ballot confirmed that 51 % of voters trusted Trump with dealing with the financial system in contrast with the 47 % who trusted Harris.
An evaluation by the Washington, DC-based Brookings Establishment suppose tank additionally discovered Harris had inherited America’s disapproval of Biden, which has grown throughout his presidency due to financial dissatisfaction. Individuals had been notably displeased with Biden’s dealing with of inflation, in line with polls compiled by the FiveThirtyEight web site. Since Biden got here to energy, shopper costs have risen by more than 19 percent.
The Brookings evaluation additionally indicated Harris made some mistaken tactical decisions. For instance, her choice to avoid media interviews when she first appeared on the Democratic ticket led to voters dropping confidence in her capacity to suppose on her ft, Brookings mentioned.
Deckman added that Harris’s alternative of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential working mate over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was one other of “a number of errors” made by the Democrats within the run-up to this election. It is because Walz didn’t assist Harris sway any swing states. Minnesota has voted Democratic in each single presidential election since 1976.
Is the correct to abortion in peril within the US underneath Trump?
As soon as Trump takes energy in January, a nationwide abortion ban appears unlikely, however states might limit abortion.
Earlier than this yr’s election, Trump mentioned he would veto any federal abortion ban as a result of he believes abortion is a matter that needs to be left to every state.
As of this week, abortion is banned in 13 states underneath nearly all circumstances. In an extra 4 states, abortion is banned previous six weeks of being pregnant.
Some states place limits at 12 weeks, 15 weeks or 18 weeks or have longer gestational limits. 9 states and the District of Columbia place no restrictions on abortion.
On Tuesday, 10 states voted on whether or not to embed the correct to abortion of their constitutions. These measures had been delivered to the poll by abortion rights teams.
Seven states handed the abortion rights amendments, paving the way in which for abortion restrictions to be lifted in Missouri, the place abortion was banned underneath any circumstances besides medical emergencies, and Arizona, the place abortions had been banned previous 15 weeks. These restrictions will likely be lifted within the coming weeks.
The measures additionally handed in Colorado, New York, Maryland, Montana and Nevada, the place abortion is authorized however now this will likely be enshrined of their state constitutions.
Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota didn’t go their very own amendments, and their bans stay. Florida bans abortions previous six weeks of being pregnant, Nebraska bans them previous 12 weeks and South Dakota bans them in nearly all circumstances.
Nevertheless, The New York Occasions reported on Wednesday that anti-abortion Republicans will place strain on Trump to enact a federal ban on abortion.
